The world’s ninth most popular sports has been dominated by America in the last 20 years. Since ‘The Dream Team’ debuted in Barcelona in 1992, the US has missed out on just one gold medal.
However, the rise of Spanish, Argentinean and French basketball will challenge the American monopoly on Olympic gold in London 2012.
America
Despite injuries to Dwight Howard, Derrick Rose, Dwayne Wade and Blake Griffin, the United States have assembled a squad packed with superstar talent.
Why They Can Win
When Carmelo Anthony is your third choice small-forward you can expect to beat more or less any team in your path.
An expected starting line up of; Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Lebron James and Kevin Love will stretch defenses with their shooting ability, leaving plenty of space in passing and driving lanes to be exploited by their unmatched athleticism.
Why They Might Lose
The absence of Howard has left questions marks over their ability to defend the paint, particularly against the Spanish big-man combination of Pau and Marc Gasol. Blake Griffin’s withdrawal from the squad due to a twisted knee, replaced by 2012 National College Player of the year, Anthony Davis, has added weight to those concerns.
Expect Lebron James to play most of his minutes at power-forward.
Spain
Built around their monster NBA All-stars Marc and Pau Gasol, Spain have emerged as the team most likely to beat America to this year’s gold.
The front court pairing will be joined by NBA veteran point guard, Jose Calderon, the 2012 NBA leader in number of shots blocked, Serge Ibaka , and the highly rated shooting guard, Barcelona’s Juan Carlos Navarro.
Pau and Marc Gasol will be crucial to the success of the Spanish national team.
Why They Can Win
Spain will breeze through the early stages of the Olympics by pumping the ball inside to Marc and Pau. Both are highly skilled passers from the post, more than capable of finding open players on the perimeter when double-teamed down low.
A likely semi-final or final clash against America could be swung into their favour if they manage to slow the game down. Taking the ball away from the more athletic American guards in transition and force them to look inside, where they have the size and strength to compete.
Why They Might Lose
Injuries to play-making point guard Ricky Rubio and NBA veteran shooting guard, Rudy Fernandez has weakened the Spaniards against America’s greatest strength, the size and athleticism of their back-court.
Argentina
LOS ANGELES, CA – DECEMBER 13: Manu Ginobli #20 of the San Antonio Spurs waits to pass in front of Eric Gordon #10 of the Los Angeles Clippers at Staples Center on December 13, 2009 in Los Angeles, California.
Seen as a final opportunity for the Argentinean ‘Golden Generation’ to add to their 2004 Gold Medal, the aging Manu Ginobli, 35, and Luis Scola, 32, may have enough left in the tank for one last push.
Why They Can Win
Despite persistent injuries in recent years, the mercurial Ginobli is more than capable of dominating a game. He showed flashes of his best throughout this year’s playoffs, helping guide the San Antonio Spurs to the Western Conference Finals and a 20 game winning steak.
Luis Scola has proven himself as a consistent scorer from the post throughout his NBA career. Expect more of the same in London.
Why They Won’t
The aging Ginobli and Scola will be required to provide much of the offensive spark for Argentina and, with a tough group draw including America and France, the task may prove to tough for them.
More than one team will be thrashed by Team USA in London this summer, however, calling this a guaranteed American gold is far too premature. Expect plenty of heat between NBA rivals as domestic league angst goes international.
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