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The regular season is over. 14 teams have been sent packing. For the remaining 16 teams, every second, every quarter and every game of basketball matters. There’s no more talk about tanking for lottery picks, no more resting of star players. Gone are the days of burnt rubber matches. Elimination is now lurking over every team’s shoulder. It’s playoff time.
Playoffs are a yearly tradition in the NBA, but this year there are extra incentives. Can Tim Duncan win his fifth ring? Can LeBron James and the Miami Heat make it a three-peat? Can Kevin Durant cap off his MVP year with his first NBA title?
Before any of those historical milestones can be achieved the teams have pass the first hurdle in the run to the title. This is where championship hopefuls and aspiring Cinderellas come face-to-face in a fight to reach the next round.
So buckle up, as we break down each match-up, analysing each team’s strength and weakness, the X-factors and a prediction of the final outcome.
Eastern Conference
(1) Indiana Pacers vs. (8)Atlanta Hawks
Regular Season Series: Split (2-2)
X-Factor: Indiana’s chemistry
Before the All-Star game, the Indiana Pacers were 40-12 and were sitting comfortably on top of the NBA. Since then they have been in free fall, and that makes them extremely difficult to predict. The Hawks generally play a small lineup which can cause some difficulties on match-ups for the Pacers. If Pero Antic can drag Roy Hibbert away from the basket and exploit Hibbert’s already tired legs, the Hawks can cause some upsets.
The most important wild-card and probably the deciding factor for the Pacers in the playoffs is their team chemistry. Lance Stephenson has become unpredictable, Paul George seems to be a shell of the player he was at the beginning of the season and George Hill seems to have lost confidence in his game.
If the Pacers can put their slide behind them, this is a cakewalk. The Hawks are the only team in the NBA playoffs that are below .500 thanks to the weak Eastern Conference and the Pacers still have the fourth best record in the NBA.
Atlanta doesn’t have the talent to pull off a upset on this Pacers team who, even if they are vulnerable, still have post-season experience and the defensive abilities to take care of the Hawks.
Why Indiana will win: Despite late-season troubles, the Pacers are simply the better team. Their bench is fortified, and their frontcourt size can easily overwhelm the Hawks, which is without several of its better center options (eg. Al Horford).
Why Atlanta will win: The Hawks have been playing better basketball down the stretch than the Pacers, which isn’t a great accomplishment. If Atlanta can steal a game or two at Indiana, where the Pacers have the best record in the NBA, they could create some unrest in the Indiana locker room.
Prediction: Pacers in 5.
(2)Miami Heat vs. (7)Charlotte Bobcats
Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Regular Season Series: Miami Heat won (4-0)
The X-Factor: The Switch
One might think that the Heat’s perfect record against the Bobcats tells us everything we need to know about how the match-up will be played out. But, as is the case with most regular-season Heat analysis, that undefeated mark doesn’t give us the complete picture.
Most likely, the pain for the Bobcats is going to get worse. The Miami Heat always seem to play their best basketball in the playoffs. No matter how they play in the regular season, as soon as the playoffs roll in it’s like the Heat players flip a switch. All the weaknesses the Heat seem to have during the regular season seem to vanish. They seem to play with a vengeance and a hunger that can only be quenched with a championship. In short, the Bobcats don’t stand a chance.
To be fair, they did force overtime on one encounter and lost by a point in another. So it’s not like the Heat blew out the Bobcats in all their encounters. But LeBron James scored 61 points the last time the two teams played and Dwyane Wade only played in 2 of the 4 encounters.
The Bobcats seem like the perfect Cinderella story, but they are nowhere ready to square off with the Heat in games that matter. And when that switch flips, the Bobcats would have no chance and would have to wait another year to win their first playoff game.
Why Miami will win: James is too much for anyone or even everyone on the Bobcats, despite Michael Kidd-Gilchrist’s defensive improvements. The Heat have the talent and the experience and the championships.
Why Charlotte will win: The Heat’s biggest weakness has been opposing post scorers, and few are better than Al Jefferson. Also, Kemba Walker should have a field day with Mario Chalmers. But the Bobcats need a miracle.
Prediction: Miami in 4.
(3)Toronto Raptors vs. (6)Brooklyn Nets
Toronto Raptors vs Brooklyn Nets
Regular Season Series: Split (2-2)
The X-Factor: The Backcourt Matchups
Kyle Lowry’s grudge might get even bigger when he faces Joe Johnson and the Brooklyn Nets. Johnson is the man who many feel occupied an All-Star spot that should have gone to Lowry this year.
The real focal point of the matchup will be in the backcourt, where Lowry and DeMar DeRozan’s youth and athleticism could pose problems for Deron Williams and Shaun Livingston. Brooklyn has an unusual style of play. They rely on postup play from their backcourt players. Against Lowry and DeRozan, an inside-out option may not be a great idea for the Nets. But the Nets have gone 20-11 and they have a roster that overflows with playoff experience.
Toss in the disrespect that Toronto feels after the Nets tanked their last match to avoid a first round matchup against the Chicago Bulls, and we are in for an entertaining series.
Why Toronto will win: The Raptors won the division because they have been the best-performing team in it without a doubt. Lowry and DeRozan provide athleticism the Nets will struggle to keep up with, and they have a stable of big men willing to bang it down low.
Why Brooklyn will win: The old guys can still play. Paul Pierce, Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Kevin Garnett, Andrei Kirilenko and Shaun Livingston have tons of playoff experience and have been effective in the second half of the season. These guys joined forces with the clear goal of post-season success, and new head coach Jason Kidd has shown potential to put it all together. In the end, the Nets have playoff experience which is something the Raptors are severely lacking in.
Prediction: Nets in 7.
(4)Chicago Bulls vs. (5)Washington Wizards
Chicago Bulls vs. Washington Wizards
Regular Season Series: Washington Wizards (2-1)
The X-Factor: Nene
In the two games Nene was in the lineup against the Bulls this year, the Wizards won. In the game that he missed due to injury, the Wizards took an 18-point beating. Nene has been playing limited minutes in the past two weeks in an attempt to return to full fitness for the playoffs. He was effective in those short stints, but it’s hard to know how his knee will hold up if he’s asked to play major minutes. If healthy, Nene gives the Wizards interior scoring and size on defence, two things you need when you face the Bulls. If he can’t be a major contributor, the Bulls can absolutely stifle the Wizards’ otherwise bleak offence.
The Bulls are making another run at the playoffs without star Derrick Rose. Luckily for them, they still have players like Joakim Noah. Noah has been playing terrific basketball and is a likely Defensive Player of the Year. The Bulls know what it takes to win a series, unlike the inexperienced Wizards. In this case it’ll take a ruthless defensive attack willing to capitalize on a hobbled opponent, something the Bulls will be comfortable with.
Why Chicago will win: Their defence is relentless. John Wall will struggle to find breathing room, particularly on drives. Noah and Taj Gibson are going to make the paint a no-go area, and the Wizards’ three-point shooting can be a bit shaky. Coach Tom Thibodeau has more playoff experince and in-game acumen than the Wizards’ Randy Wittman.
Why Washington will win: They can score, which is something the Bulls have a hard time doing without Rose. The Wizards have a slight talent advantage over the Bulls, with John Wall and Bradley Beal taking care of the scoring. Also, Marcin Gortat and Nene give the Wizards the size to cover Noah and Gibson occupied.
Prediction: Bulls in 6.
Western Conference
(1)San Antonio Spurs vs. (8)Dallas Mavericks
San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks
Regular Season Series: San Antonio Spurs (4-0)
The X-Factor: Dirk Nowitzki
There’s is no way the Mavericks can avoid a quick elimination unless Dirk Nowitzki can pull off a superhuman performance. Though a slightly better offensive team than the Spurs, the Mavericks don’t have the balance or depth to compete with the Spurs on equal terms.
One particular weakness for the Mavericks is its backcourt defence. Neither Monta Ellis and Jose Calderon can keep Tony Parker out of the lane, and once the Frenchmen gets into space in the middle of the floor, high-percentage shots come fast and furious. The Mavericks have the worst defensive rating of all teams in the playoffs. So as the Spurs keep piling on the points Dirk will have to be the man trying to push Dallas towards those gaudy point totals.
Nowitzki has had a brilliant season at the age of 35, and he’s got the unique scoring knack to get makable looks even against a defence as stout as the Spurs. But he is no miracle-worker.
Why San Antonio will win: The Spurs are the first team in nearly 40 years without a player averaging 30 minutes a game, and only backup guards Marco Belinelli and Patty Mills have played at least 80 games. Yet they managed the best record in the NBA. They have had no problems with their long-time rivals all season, and they appear ready for another Finals run.
Why Dallas will win: Nowitzki can’t be counted out, and Monta Ellis is a high-level talent who has put it all together this season. And if any coach can handle Gregg Popovich, it’s the Mavericks’ Rick Carlisle.
Prediction: Spurs in 4.
(2)Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (7)Memphis Grizzlies
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Regular Season Series: Oklahoma City Thunder (3-1)
The X-Factor: Memphis’ Adaptability
The Thunder are a team without many weaknesses, so if the Grizzlies are to have any hope of pulling off an upset, they have to exploit the only real chink in the Thunder’s armour – the three-point defence. A wise, adaptable Grizzlies team would spread the floor and keep Tayshaun Prince on the bench.
But Memphis played at the league’s slowest rate and attempted the fewest three-pointers all season. So don’t expect the Grizzlies to attack the Thunder where they are most vulnerable. Instead the Grizzlies will rely on their stingy defence, bruise-inducing style and Marc Gasol’s high-post passing. It’s a strategy that has rejuvenated the Grizzlies since Gasol’s return in January, so it will be hard to fault the Grizzlies for sticking with a system that has helped them play some of the best ball in the league.
Unfortunately, that likely won’t work on the Thunder, who beat the Grizzlies three times this season. The lone defeat came when Russell Westbrook was out with an injury. Expect Kevin Durant to have a much easier time against the Grizzlies in this post-season than the last time around, especially with Westbrook looking healthy enough to help him push the pace.
Memphis is tough, and it won’t go down without a fight. But because the Grizzlies simply don’t have the weapons to capitalize on the Thunder’s weakness, and the fact that Russell Westbrook will be present, they won’t be able to replicate last year’s upset.
Why Oklahoma City will win: Durant-Westbrook is the best star pairing in the NBA. They lost to the Grizzlies last post-season when Westbrook was out, but he has rounded back into form after three knee surgeries. Everything appears sharp entering the playoffs.
Why Memphis will win: The Grizzlies’ size and defensive intensity can be overwhelming, and they slow the game down more than any other team in the league. That could offset any talent disparity and keep Durant and Westbrook humble. Also, they make very few mistakes.
Prediction: Thunder in 6.
(3)Los Angeles Clippers vs. (6)Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors
Regular Season Series: Split (2-2)
The X-Factor: Small Ball
With Andrew Bogut out with a broken rib, the Warriors have no choice but to play small against the Clippers’ imposing front line. The Warriors played the Clippers to a regular season draw by matching up physically and following Bogut’s lead. Without him, the Clippers have an uphill task.
The Clippers aren’t afraid to pick up the pace, and they don’t even need to take out their bigs to do so. If Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson can turn in a Splash Brother-y effort from behind the arc, the Warriors can win a couple of games. But the Warriors rely on Bogut for their defensive identity. Jermaine O’Neal will see a few minutes here and there, but Lee looks to be the Warriors’ answer at centre. That means that Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan are going to have a field day throughout the series.
Unless Bogut makes a miraculous return that allows the Warriors to match up in the size department, this battle for California won’t be as interesting as it promised to be.
Why Los Angeles will win: The Clippers arguably have two of the five best players in the NBA, making them a legitimate threat to beat anyone. And unlike last season, Chris Paul and Griffin are surrounded with sharpshooting, defensive-oriented role players who can get the job done. Also, Bogut’s absence means Griffin and Jordan can dominate the paint.
Why Golden State will win: No team can bury an opponent in three-pointers quite like the Warriors when Curry and Thompson are hot. Andre Igoudala has stabilized the defence and turned it into a physical unit that could frustrate Griffin.
Prediction: Clippers in 5.
(4)Houston Rockets vs. (5)Portland Trail Blazers
Houston Rockets vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Regular Season Series: Houston Rockets (3-1)
The X-Factor: Portland’s Interior Defence
The Blazers are a strange defensive team. They were built to stop the three-ball at the expense of an open lane that is only guarded when Robin Lopez is on the floor. On balance, the Blazers’ defence hasn’t really worked. They finished the year ranked 17th in defensive efficiency. That is quite low for any playoff team, but it’ll most likely mean a quick death against the Rockets.
Generally speaking, the Rockets get away with their strategy because they don’t foul. But it’s impossible to avoid fouling James Harden. With a scheme involving penetration, the league’s best foul-drawing guard is going to rack up freebies while putting the Blazers’ extremely thin frontcourt rotation in foul trouble.
If Lopez can somehow force Harden and Co. into taking difficult shots without fouling, the Blazers will be able to get out in transition against Houston’s own shaky defence. Portland’s offence is dangerous, and LaMarcus Aldridge presents a match-up problem for every frontcourt player on Houston’s roster. Expect the Blazers to put together one or two red-hot shooting games from the perimeter, but don’t expect a series upset. The Blazers are just too generous on defence.
Why Houston will win: Their two stars, James Harden and Dwight Howard, are better than LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard. They have developed a solid interior defence, while the Blazers struggle at that end. Rockets coach Kevin McHale dwarfs the Blazers head coach Terry Slottsin in playoff experience, and the same could be said about the players.
Why Portland will win: Beverley and Howard have spent the most of April nursing injuries, and the Blazers have the weapons to expose these shortcomings if they are not fully healed. Portland also has one of the best offences in the NBA, and that could be in full effect if the Rockets try to push the tempo, as they often do.
Prediction: Rockets in 6.
