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Season Series: Heat won 4-0
The Miami Heat are going to play in NBA Finals. That’s the way it is. Deal with it. They are going to have an extremely easy road through the East (whoever the Heat face in round 2 will be much tougher than I thought originally, but the Pacers have forgotten how to put the ball in the basket, so it balances itself back out). Plus compared to the route any Western team has to take it’s practically a cake walk. They have a first round match-up against the Charlotte Bobcats.
The Bobcats have been a pleasant surprise this season finishing as the 7th seed after some of the worst seasons in NBA history. Al Jefferson has really shone as lead dog on this squad and should cause some serious match-up issues for the Heat. Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson have shown flashes of solid play in the back-court as well. In the end the Bobcats will have the 4th best player on the floor anytime Lebron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are on the court at the same time. Its nearly impossible to win a game when the other team has the best three players on the floor, let alone a series. With that being said I am still very excited for a couple of match-ups.
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Key Match-Ups
Big Al Jefferson vs Chris Bosh
I am not sure how often Chris Bosh will be matched up on Big Al because Chris “Birdman” Andersen has been playing a lot more center than he has in past seasons, but I am excited to see it when it happens. Bosh plays the center position when the Heat go small which will force him to guard Big Al. Jefferson has been a dominant force on the offensive end for the Bobcats all season and commands a double team nearly every time he catches the ball on the block. Bosh who rarely faces true centers like Big Al will struggle to guard him. Let’s not forget that centers normally dominate the Heat since they lack true on-ball interior defenders (unless you are Roy Hibbert, who couldn’t score more than 5 points last time he played the Heat).
Big Al will cause the Heat serious issues on the defensive end and could very easily average 30 ppg and 15 rpg for the series. However, Big Al may struggle as much on the defensive end as he will excel on the offensive one. Al hasn’t had to guard many centers/power forwards who have any offensive ability. Big Al is not the most fleet of foot big man and Bosh should be able to use his speed to get by him pretty easy. These two will most likely put up big numbers this series.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist vs Lebron James
I love great individual man-to-man defense. It is one of my favorite things to see in a player and part of the reason I love watching Lebron James in the playoffs. It’s also what makes this match-up enticing. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has zero offensive game. He will not threaten Lebron on the offensive end and will probably have a small impact on the series. What I really want to see is him trying to guard Lebron.
There have been a lot of defensive specialists that have tried to slow Lebron down in the past, but few have had the size, strength and speed that MKG has. He has shown that he is an elite defender and if he could assemble any short of jump shot, could prove to be an effective player in the league. Unfortunately, he probably won’t be on the floor much because the Bobcats are essentially playing 4-v-5 on offense with him out there. Guarding Lebron is the ultimate measuring stick of your defensive ability and I can’t wait to see the two duke it out.
Player to Watch: Dwyane Wade
Lebron James has carried the Heat the entire season so that D-Wade could be healthy for the playoffs. Now its D-Wade’s turn to return the favor. He is good enough to carry the Heat past the Bobcats and into the next round. If the Heat are going to win it all, they need to spare Lebron as much energy as possible the first two rounds, so that he still has his legs come finals time. The only way that will happen is if D-Wade carries the offensive/defensive burden early in the playoffs. I expect him to have a big series and help lessen the burden on Lebron.
Prediction: Heat in 4
This first round match-up against the Charlotte Bobcats is just a small speed bump on the way to their third straight championship. Although the Bobcats have been exceptional on defense this season, 6th in defensive efficiency, the have been equally as bad on offense. They will struggle to score against the Heat’s lockdown defense. It’s important to note that with veteran teams, regular season numbers don’t truly reflect the quality of the team. The Heat who are 11th in defensive efficiency may be the best defensive team come playoff time.
As many people have stated, the Heat have been on cruise control all season. As mentioned early, the Heat have too much talent for the Bobcats to overcome. When Big Al will be the 4th best player on the floor for most of the game you are in trouble. The only way I can imagine the Bobcats stealing one is if Kemba goes 2011 UConn status and carries his team to one victory. I would bet against it though and expect this series to be over quickly as the Heat will need the all important rest.
