Is Dale Steyn the greatest fast bowler in Test cricket history?

Dale Steyn
Dale Steyn

In a recent analysis, augmented by statistics, I argued that Dale Steyn is perhaps a notch better than the West Indian fast bowling greats who enriched the game from the early 70s right through to the end of the 90s. While the inter-era comparisons made the verdict difficult, numbers hinted towards a fact that a very few would readily agree on: the speedster from South Africa is indeed a deadlier weapon than the likes of Andy Roberts, Michael Holding, Malcolm Marshall, Colin Croft, Joel Garner, Courtney Walsh and Curtly Ambrose.

So, the next logical step is to test whether Steyn can be anointed with the title ‘the greatest of all-time’, a study which has its own set of challenges. Firstly, one has to leave the pre-70s bowlers out of the picture for a couple of reasons: the playing conditions were extremely different from what they are today and there are far more contenders to compare with, all of them having different career spans.

To tackle the last problem, the variations in performance statistics, which have been brought about due to marginal changes in playing conditions, have been considered to be constant. In other words, the impacts of these changes in playing performance aren’t being factored in.

(Note: This context of this analysis is solely Test cricket)

The contenders

The first question that comes across is of deciding who all to include in the shortlist and who all to exclude. There are as many as twenty-one names who deserve a place in the shortlist by virtue of having 300 plus wickets in Test matches alone. However, for a more efficient comparison, the list had to be pruned down to nine names, including that of Steyn. The names being (in descending order of number of Test wickets):

BOWLER OVERALL FIGURES in Test Matches
Innings Balls Runs Wickets Average SR 5WI Best
Glenn McGrath (AUS) 243 29248 12186 563 21.64 51.95 29 8/24
Richard Hadlee (NZL) 150 21918 9611 431 22.30 50.85 36 9/52
Shaun Pollock (SAF) 202 24353 9733 421 23.12 57.85 16 7/87
Wasim Akram (PAK) 181 22627 9779 414 23.62 54.65 25 7/119
Dale Steyn (SAF) 144 16109 8731 389 22.44 41.41 25 7/51
Malcolm Marshall (WI) 151 17584 7876 376 20.95 46.77 22 7/22
Waqar Younis (PAK) 154 16224 8788 373 23.56 43.50 22 7/76
Imran Khan (PAK) 142 19458 8258 362 22.81 53.75 23 8/58
Denis Lillee (AUS) 132 18467 8493 355 23.92 52.02 23 7/83

Some of the names missing out from this list are Courtney Walsh (519), Kapil Dev (434), Curtly Ambrose (405), Makhaya Ntini (390), Ian Botham (383), James Anderson (380) and Chaminda Vaas (355).

While Walsh and Ambrose were omitted because they were already compared to Steyn in the previous analysis, the rest missed out solely because they had bowling averages nearly touching the 30-mark. Malcolm Marshall was kept in this shortlist despite being there in the other analysis because he was the closest to matching Steyn on many fronts and merited a second look.

Initial observations

An immediate response after seeing the wicket-takers’ tally will be to announce that Steyn isn’t quite there, yet. After all, Glenn McGrath has an additional 170-odd wickets and a bowling average that is only a run below Steyn’s. But on a closer look, it is noticeable that Steyn has bowled in almost a hundred less innings than McGrath, but continues to have a far better strike-rate than the Australian. In fact, barring McGrath and Marshall, there’s isn’t anyone who is significantly better than Steyn when it comes to bowling averages.

A little bit of additional digging reveals that after 144 innings, McGrath had 351 wickets to his name – nearly 50 wickets lesser than what Steyn already has in the same number of innings bowled. While McGrath’s average was marginally better, Steyn is ahead in terms of strike-rate and the number of five-wicket hauls after the completion of 144 innings.

Performances home and away

Glenn McGrath
Glenn McGrath

Agreeing to the fact that Steyn does deserve a shot at being called the greatest, it is only fair to apply certain criteria to judge how he fared vis-a-vis the listed bowlers. The first litmus test for any bowler is to do as well in overseas conditions as he does at home, a feat that many have failed to achieve over the years.

BOWLER COMPARATIVE BOWLING PERFORMANCE in Test Matches (HOME & AWAY)
Venue Innings Balls Runs Wickets Average SR 5WI Best
Glenn McGrath (AUS) In AUS 131 15829 6483 289 22.43 54.77 11 8/24
Away 112 13419 5703 274 20.81 48.97 18 8/38
Richard Hadlee (NZL) In NZL 75 10663 4615 201 22.96 53.05 15 7/23
Away 75 11255 4996 230 21.72 48.93 21 9/52
Shaun Pollock (SAF) In SAF 109 12353 4955 235 21.09 52.57 9 6/30
Away 93 12000 4778 186 25.69 64.52 7 7/87
Wasim Akram (PAK) In PAK 70 7872 3423 154 22.23 51.12 8 6/48
Away 111 14755 6356 260 24.45 56.75 17 7/119
Dale Steyn (SAF) In SAF 80 8685 4665 220 21.20 39.48 15 6/8
Away 64 7424 4066 169 24.06 43.93 10 7/51
Malcolm Marshall (WI) In WI 58 6672 3150 157 20.06 42.50 8 7/80
Away 93 10912 4726 219 21.58 49.83 14 7/22
Waqar Younis (PAK) In PAK 60 6280 3288 162 20.30 38.77 11 7/76
Away 94 9944 5500 211 26.07 47.13 11 6/34
Imran Khan (PAK) In PAK 59 7673 3131 163 19.21 47.07 10 8/58
Away 83 11785 5127 199 25.76 59.22 13 7/40
Denis Lillee (AUS) In AUS 84 11534 5482 231 23.73 49.93 15 7/83
Away 48 6933 3011 124 24.28 55.91 8 7/89

As visible, barring McGrath and Richard Hadlee, most bowlers have better performances while bowling at home as compared to bowling away. And to be fair to McGrath, he has had some good performances in England, New Zealand, and India, making him thoroughly deserving of this credit. But where he misses out is where Steyn gains: while McGrath has all the numbers supporting him, he hasn’t really taken quick wickets, something the team heavily depends on its prime fast bowler for.

On an average (with matches in England being an exception), McGrath has taken as many as eight overs for a dismissal when touring overseas. This is something that Steyn has achieved in just seven overs, with the number of deliveries needed to get a wicket improving while bowling at home – contrary to McGrath’s deterioration in performance when bowling in Australia.

McGrath’s better average can be attributed to the fact that he didn’t give away too many runs and tied down a batsman for a considerable period of time before dismissing him finally, whereas South Africa depended heavily on Steyn getting wickets quicker and in regular intervals or bursts.

Richard Hadlee’s away figures, impressive nonetheless, get skewed slightly due to his freakishly brilliant performance against minnows (back then) Sri Lanka, between 1984-1987, where he bagged 27 wickets at only 12 apiece.

In a continent that hates foreign pacers

Sarfraz Nawaz
Sarfraz Nawaz

Slow off the pitch. Low bounce. Quick deterioration of shine. Hot. Humid.

Asia is one of the most difficult places to bowl for a fast bowler. Had it not been for the trendsetter, Sarfraz Nawaz of Pakistan, many aspiring fast bowlers in the subcontinent would have been lost in the wilderness. The reverse swing, a potent tool developed by Sarfraz to utilize the old ball, provided a new lease of life to many subcontinent fast bowlers.

Over the years, Kapil Dev, Wasim Akram, Imran Khan and Waqar Younis, turned the old, scuffed up ball into a force to reckon with. But, unfortunately, this art has been largely restricted to players from the subcontinent, making it difficult for fast bowlers from outside Asia to bowl with the old ball.

Any bowler, Asian or otherwise, needs to succeed in the subcontinent to earn his stripes. Unlike the Duke and the Kookaburra, the SG cricket ball (widely used in the subcontinent) roughens up early and becomes difficult to bowl fast with after 20 odd overs. That’s when the expertise of the fast bowler with regards to the line and length and their command over reversing the old ball comes in.

BOWLER COMPARATIVE BOWLING PERFORMANCE in Test Matches (in ASIA & AWAY)
Venue Innings Balls Runs Wickets Average SR 5WI Best
Glenn McGrath (AUS) In Asia 36 3951 1658 72 23.03 54.88 1 5/66
Away 207 25297 10528 491 21.44 51.52 28 8/24
Richard Hadlee (NZL) In Asia 22 2909 1468 68 21.59 42.78 5 6/49
Away 128 19009 8143 363 22.43 52.37 31 9/52
Shaun Pollock (SAF) In Asia 31 3411 1391 60 23.18 56.85 2 6/78
Away 171 20942 8342 361 23.11 58.01 14 7/87
Wasim Akram (PAK) In Asia 102 11324 4867 216 22.53 52.43 11 6/48
Away 79 11303 4912 198 24.81 57.09 14 7/119
Dale Steyn (SAF) In Asia 31 3343 1902 84 22.64 39.80 5 7/51
Away 113 12766 6829 305 22.39 41.86 20 6/8
Malcolm Marshall (WI) In Asia 34 3461 1637 71 23.06 48.75 3 6/37
Away 117 14123 6239 305 20.46 46.30 19 7/22
Waqar Younis (PAK) In Asia 85 8220 4438 215 20.64 38.23 14 7/76
Away 69 8004 4350 158 27.53 50.66 8 6/78
Imran Khan (PAK) In Asia 80 10022 4158 205 20.28 48.89 12 8/58
Away 62 9436 4100 157 26.11 60.10 11 7/40
Denis Lillee (AUS) In Asia 6 792 410 6 68.33 132.00 0 3/114
Away 126 17675 8083 349 23.16 50.64 23 7/83

Among the bowlers listed here, one can only marvel at the quality of pace bowling that the Pakistani trio of Waqar, Wasim and Imran Khan displayed in their heydays. And it’s only justified that they have the better figures while bowling in Asia. But one must observe how their bowling became less potent when they bowled outside the subcontinent, hinting at how subcontinental conditions overly suited their bowling performance.

Similarly, Hadlee’s good run against the Sri Lankans in Sri Lanka ensured that he is amongst the ones with the best bowling average in Asia. Shaun Pollock, despite being consistent, took more deliveries for each wicket than most of the rest, and Dennis Lillee had too small a sample size to be passed a judgment on. McGrath’s performance in the subcontinent improved only after 2001.

Steyn’s case, though, is remarkable. Though he is typecasted as a fiery bowler in helpful conditions, running in hard to make best use of the bounce and lateral movement, he is brilliant in the subcontinent, as well. He is the only player in the list to be as good in Asia as he is while bowling in friendlier territories. He is the fastest to get the wickets and has some memorable spells in Asia against some quality teams: 10/108 vs India (in Nagpur ‘10), 9/99 vs Sri Lanka (in Galle ‘14) and 8/114 vs India (in Ahmedabad ‘08).

Richard Hadlee
Richard Hadlee

The match-winner

What good is a fast bowler if he can’t win matches for his country. One might come across the odd fast bowler who keeps getting a steady flow of wickets but is unable to close matches for his country. And that is where this criterion has underlined importance. Many of the fast bowlers mentioned in the list have represented the champion teams of their era and have, at times, enjoyed the aura of invisibility around them that led to wickets being granted to their reputation. But it’s highly important to observe what impact those wickets have had on the outcome of the match.

BOWLER BOWLING PERFORMANCE in a WINNING CAUSE
Innings Balls Runs Wickets Average SR 5WI Best
Glenn McGrath (AUS) 168 19780 7945 414 19.19 47.78 18 8/24
Dale Steyn (SAF) 82 8559 4364 275 15.87 31.12 21 7/51
Malcolm Marshall (WI) 86 9678 4264 254 16.79 38.10 17 7/22
Shaun Pollock (SAF) 97 10608 4081 223 18.30 47.57 9 6/30
Waqar Younis (PAK) 78 7771 4042 222 18.21 35.00 14 7/76
Wasim Akram (PAK) 81 8944 3901 211 18.49 42.39 13 7/119
Denis Lillee (AUS) 61 7923 3709 203 18.27 39.03 17 7/83
Richard Hadlee (NZL) 44 5808 2261 173 13.07 33.57 17 9/52
Imran Khan (PAK) 46 5941 2248 155 14.50 38.33 11 8/58

Like what was being hinted at throughout, Steyn is an out-and-out match-winner. In the 144 innings he has bowled in, he has been on the winning side in 82 innings – a whopping 57%. As far as the bowling average is concerned, only Hadlee and Imran Khan are better, with the latter being not very far off from Steyn. Sticking to his reputation, Steyn has been the fastest to take the wickets and nearly every one out of four innings of his has been a five-wicket haul.

Against the best

And finally, it is useful to see how the fast bowlers have fared against the best team of their respective playing careers. This is to measure the efficacy of the bowler when faced with the best opposition.

BOWLER BOWLING PERFORMANCE against MOST SUCCESSFUL TEAM OF PLAYING CAREER
Innings Balls Runs Wickets Average SR 5WI Best Versus
Denis Lillee (AUS) 57 8516 3507 167 21.00 50.99 11 7/89 England*
Imran Khan (PAK) 29 3488 1695 80 21.19 43.60 6 7/80 W. Indies
Richard Hadlee (NZL) 19 2506 1124 51 22.04 49.14 4 6/50 W. Indies
Malcolm Marshall (WI) 36 4335 1959 87 22.52 49.83 7 5/29 Australia*
Wasim Akram (PAK) 21 2990 1288 50 25.76 59.80 4 6/62 Australia
Dale Steyn (SAF) 27 3164 1872 69 27.13 45.86 2 5/67 Australia
Glenn McGrath (AUS) 32 4082 1558 57 27.33 71.61 2 6/86 S. Africa*
Waqar Younis (PAK) 20 1883 1014 30 33.80 62.77 0 4/55 Australia
Shaun Pollock (SAF) 23 3232 1474 40 36.85 80.80 1 7/87 Australia
Here, most successful implies team with maximum wins in that period | * = 2nd most successful team as player represented the most successful team of the period.

The South African pacer’s performances fall heavily on this front, faring at an average twenty-seven runs per wicket. His strike-rate, too, suffers and the five-wicket hauls are few and far between by his standards. One might also see McGrath endure a similar fate, even though he was a part of the most successful team of his generation.

Verdict

Yes, Dale Steyn is a terrific fast bowler. He takes wickets both in the subcontinent and in helpful conditions, with equal aplomb. He gets his dismissals in as few deliveries as possible. He contributes hugely towards the team’s victories and is better placed in this stage of his career than any of his predecessors were. However, while he might be better than the West Indies greats, one should reserve the judgment on him being the greatest of the modern game for a later date.

He is almost there, but not quite yet.

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Edited by Staff Editor