Five reasons why Pakistan will defeat West Indies in the 1st ODI

Pakistan will be favourites despite a poor Champions Trophy

Pakistan visit the Caribbean after a catastrophic Champions Trophy campaign where they bowed out of the group stage after being handed out three consecutive defeats.

They have made a number of major changes to their squad, axing certain senior members like Kamran Akmal, Shoaib Malik and Imran Farhat whereas Shahid Afridi and Umar Akmal make yet another comeback.

Pakistan will take courage from the fact that though their batting has let them down frequently, they have one of the best bowling departments in the world even when Umar Gul is missing through injury. This facet of their game was on exhibition in their practice match against Guyana where they defended a moderate total of 246 through the exploits of Md. Irfan and Saeed Ajmal.

West Indies, on the other hand, suffer from the great flaw of inconsistency. They had a terrific start to their campaign in the Tri-Nation trophy, grabbing two consecutive victories in Jamaica, one with a bonus point, and still managed to give way to India and Sri Lanka as they missed out on the final.

West Indies play a brand of very entertaining cricket with their bowlers striving for pace, whereas the likes of Kieron Pollard, Chris Gayle and Johnson Charles are some of the best hard-hitting batsmen of the game. However, they lack a sense of proportion. They lack a batsman who can stand ground in the middle overs of a 50-over-match and accumulate runs.

Here is a list of five reasons why Pakistan are likely to win the first battle in this five-match series:

5. Weakened opposition

The failure of Chris Gayle will spell doom for West Indies

West Indies relied on two outstanding individual performances in the two matches that they managed to win in the tri-series which came from Johnson Charles and Chris Gayle. They will be heavily dependent on these two players in this series as well as they can establish a platform by attacking the hard new ball.

However, their threat is likely to be neutralised by the fantastic pace battery that Pakistan boast of. Their middle-order is vulnerable to meltdowns and the likes of Darren Bravo and Marlon Samuels can be frustratingly inconsistent. Furthermore, West Indies lack the nerve to hold onto a match against quality competition which means they can crumble from a position of dominance to lose the match.

4. Greater balance

Shahid Afridi’s inclusion gives more options for Pakistan, especially in bowling

Pakistan have improved their squad with the changes that they have made. In Shahid Afrdi, they have an inconsistent but explosive lower-middle order batsman who can be a significant threat with the ball. In fact, he is more of a bowling all-rounder in this side than a batsman who bowls part-time.

Umar Akmal is a greater batting talent as compared to his elder brother and if he can handle the gloves well, he can be a long-term asset for this side. Ahmed Shehzad played a determined knock of 68 in hostile conditions in the practice match against Guyana when most of the other batsman failed to convert starts into anything substantial.

3. Batting order

Misbah-ul-Haq coming in at number 4 will give much stability to the batting order at the right time

Pakistan faced heavy criticism post-Champions Trophy regarding the batting order they employed. Misbah-ul-Haq has the ability to anchor the innings for Pakistan but he was intent upon playing down the order even though the top order frequently suffered from meltdowns. By the time he made his way to the 22-yards, the match had already slipped out of Pakistan’s hands.

If the recent practice match is anything to go by, he has made that correction and will be taking his place at number 4 as the team’s best batsman. The sacking of Imran Farhat means that Md. Hafeez and Nasir Jamshed will open the innings. The pairing looks good in terms of their contrasting styles.

Nasir Jamshed is a talented left-handed batsman who did very well earlier in the year against India scoring two hundreds. He likes to assess the conditions before playing his shots whereas Md. Hafeez has a natural aptitude for aggressive shot-making. The left-hand, right-hand combination will irk the bowlers in the first few overs as they try to extract swing with the new ball.

2. Spinning a trap

The spin-troika of Ajmal, Hafeez and Afridi can run through any opposition

The spin duo of Md. Hafeez and Saeed Ajmal was a formidable enough partnership but add to that combination the leg-spin bowling of Shahid Afridi and you have a truly potent attack.

The unique thing about this spin-attack is that unlike most spinners operating in world cricket today, this attack is constituted by bowlers who are all potent wicket-taking options and not just economical bowlers. Saeed Ajmal sent a signal of things to come by bagging a five-for in the practice match against Guyana, exploiting the turn that is usually available in the dry surfaces of the Caribbean.

1. Pace battery

Young Junaid Khan has been an excellent find for Pakistan

The outstanding factor in this game will be Pakistan’s superiority in the pace-bowling department. They boast of three left-arm seamers who have rather different styles of bowling.

Wahab Riaz relies on his tremendous pace, Junaid Khan on his ability to get steep swing with the new ball whereas Md. Irfan is a 7ft. 1 inch giant who hits the deck with his very high-release point. Md. Irfan especially is dangerous commodity who has impressed with his controlled execution thus far in his fledgling international career.

The West Indian batsmen failed to cope with the swing of Bhuvneshwar Kumar and Umesh Yadav in the Tri-Nation series and by that logic, Pakistan’s pace battery will pose a greater threat.