IPL 2014: Fantasy Guru - The play-off strategy

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Ice man for crunch situations

With all the play-off matches to be played on high-scoring decks, I don’t see many bowlers who can withstand the onslaught from the batsmen, more so when you see the likes of David Miller, Dwayne Smith, MS Dhoni, Glenn Maxwell, Kieron Pollard, etc., in the list. So, it is important to make sure that we get points from the bowlers and not have them just for the sake of it.

There is only one bowler who fits the bill, irrespective of how conducive the track is to him: Sunil Narine. The next best bet will be Sandeep Sharma. Kings XI Punjab were smart to rest him, and, with the early swing on offer in almost all the venues, Sandeep, who bowls 3 on the trot, can put the opposition on the backfoot by getting a couple of wickets, which makes him a must-have in fantasy teams.

The reason why I specify these two bowlers is because they have the ability to pick up wickets even when the batsmen are on the defensive. While the others may be amongst wickets, it will be down to how the opposition batsmen approach the game, something that you can’t account for in an analysis. The probability doesn’t favour them. Also, to try and zero in on that one bowler who will be fortunate enough to get wickets will only be an attempt in vain.

Kolkata Knight Riders:

Picking Robin Uthappa in the team is a no-brainer. The other 3 players who are worth the consideration are Shakib Al Hasan, Gautam Gambhir and Yusuf Pathan. Yes, you read that right: I did mean Yusuf Pathan.

What we are seeing now is the beast of the old; the one who smashed South Africa in South Africa and New Zealand at Bangalore. Those are two of the best LOI knocks I have ever seen. It is a pity that he went off the boil in the last 3 years. Now that I can see what I saw in him years back, he makes his way into my team. Given the freedom he enjoys and the position he comes in, he is worth a shot. However, as always, with the big hitters, it could be all or nothing. Even if he gets out for a duck, I wouldn’t bother, as the process is right.

It is a difficult choice between Gambhir and Shakib. Both have shortcomings: While Gambhir will be batting in the most testing phase of the match, Shakib could easily not get enough deliveries to make an impact. I am inclined to go with Shakib, as Sandeep Sharma could run through the top order, thereby giving more time for Shakib at the crease. As I have always said, to expect Shakib to take wickets this year at Eden Gardens is naive.

Morne Morkel starts off well but almost always ends up with figures like 4-0-32-1. He doesn’t bowl at the death, too. You can’t pick him hoping a miracle. However, if Pat Cummins plays, I would pick him, as he bowls at the death and is more destructive.

Kings XI Punjab:

David Miller would be my first pick for this match, even ahead of Glenn Maxwell. Given the form that Maxwell finds himself to be in and the way the Kings XI openers play, it will be down to Miller to see them through, regardless of them batting first or bowling first.

Manan Vohra, being an uncapped player and a ridiculously exciting talent, will also find a spot. It is important to keep the expectations low here. Vohra has come a long way from what he was last year, but he still succumbs at the first sight of a quality bowler. While his ability was there for all of us to see in the last year’s tournament, all he wanted to do was just slog. This year, though, he is more selective.

Virender Sehwag is highly inconsistent, thrills us for a while before getting out. I took a chance with him for the first time in the tournament in their final league match against Delhi Daredevils, and, if he can’t provide me returns in that fixture, I am not picking him again. Even if he comes off, I wouldn’t be bothered, as that is too big a leap of faith to have him and hope for points.

Akshar Patel bowls 4 overs day in, day out and sometimes at the death, too. Karanveer Singh has got the potential. Both of them won’t be getting enough assistance, though. Rishi Dhawan is a hit or miss. I expect Karanveer to be dropped in favour of Parvinder Awana, as the top 5 Knight Riders batsmen play spin better than they play pace. Trust Sanjay Bangar to get it right.

If you have got to pick any of the three, pick Rishi Dhawan for the first fixture. If there is a budget issue, go for Akshar, as he can bat.

All right then, what about Glenn Maxwell, the elephant in the room? The Knight Riders have nailed him twice already, and, to be frank, he looks shot, too. I am taking the risk to leave him out for their first fixture. I would have him against Chennai Super Kings or Mumbai Indians, though. I see what I did there.

Chennai Super Kings:

Praveen Kumar holds the key to get through the CSK top order

If Praveen Kumar plays, both the Super Kings’ openers are in a spot of bother. Both Brendon McCullum and Dwayne Smith can’t play Praveen on a deck that has swing on offer. You need not do much to understand this. Just watch their last encounter to know how fortunate does Dwayne need to be to escape Praveen. I am not sure who of the two will get past him, so I will get one of them in, as we now have excess of transfers. It would be Brendon, as he comes down the track and disturbs the length of the swing bowlers. Suresh Raina will be in the team either way.

If Praveen Kumar doesn’t play, I would get the Super Kings’ top 3 in, all of them. With Pragyan Ojha not in greatest forms and Harbhajan Singh turning the ball into the right handers and the bowlers, in general, handicapped by decks, it would be a run feast. Shreyas Gopal, the leggie, is the only threat to the openers.

I would be very surprised to see Brendon sitting out for David Hussey. However, if it happens, Faf du Plessis will play as an opener. Du Plessis is PK-proof. Du Plessis is quality, and Du Plessis will make his way into the team without a second thought. If he plays at 4, though, his impact will be severly cut down, and hence I will not have him.

None of the Super Kings’ bowlers are worth a spot, and that includes Ravindra Jadeja, too.

What about MS Dhoni? Big matches are made for big players, and he is known to promote himself on make or break situations in crunch matches. Will the Super Kings top 4 leave the match to come down to him? Only if Praveen plays. So, again, I will only have him if the Uttar Pradesh seamer plays. Else, I don’t see the match getting beyond the top 4.

Mumbai Indians:

Michael Hussey, given the touch he is in, would be my first pick. I have never been a fan of Lendl Simmons, and I don’t see him doing big damage today, too. Corey Anderson can bowl a couple of overs if Praveen doesn’t play, and, with the kind of wicket on offer and the position he plays at, I prefer him ahead of Simmons.

After his miserable first few matches, Corey was being compared to Richard Levi due to the Mumbai Indians’ connection, which is ludicrous to say the least. The Kiwi all-rounder is tighter than Levi can ever be, and he has time on his side, too. While he can’t yet be expected to play quality spinners, he keeps his shape while he goes for the shots on good batting decks.

He doesn’t succumb at the first sight of any particular type of bowling, either, like Levi does against left-arm spin. If Corey is under the right tutelage, he could grow on to become a very fine LOI player. He would be high on confidence today and has decent chances of coming off if he escapes Ravichandran Ashwin. I rate his counterpart James Neesham more than I do him, though.

Simmons has limitations. He is more a timer than a slogger and needs just an iota of pressure to throw his wicket away. His strike-rate and a below-par career record speak for themselves. There are barriers to both Simmons and Corey, and I opt to go with the one who can provide more points in the event of them firing.

Between Rohit Sharma and Kieron Pollard, I would get Rohit in, primarily because he bats ahead of Pollard. With Anderson and Ambati Rayudu in the team, the West Indian big hitter is most likely to face lesser than 25 deliveries. However, if Pollard, by chance, gets to face more, there is no stopping him.

I would also have Praveen Kumar in, and I guess, by now, you would know why I would do that. Quality swing bowling is very hard to negotiate in any format of the game. Harbhajan Singh has been in fine touch, but he can’t deliver when the pitches don’t support spin bowling. Shreyas Gopal and Jasprit Bumrah are worthy uncapped picks.