IPL 2014: Fantasy Guru - Keep calm and trust Schedule Mantra

Guru’s team after the Chennai Super Kings vs. Delhi Daredevils match

Recap:

In contrast to what I had mentioned in my last article, I brought in Ishwar Pandey ahead of Mayank Agarwal as the uncapped player into my team for the Chennai Super Kings match: a move that reaped sweet rewards. Once I came to know that the Super Kings were playing both Ben Hilfenhaus and Pandey, it had to be done; Agarwal, as an opener, fails against persistent quality bowling, be it swing, bounce or spin. You may have to refer to my previous articles, to know about the strengths and weaknesses of the players, in such cases to alter accordingly. Since I don’t want my articles to be repetitive, I may avoid discussing the same scenarios again and again; that doesn’t mean they are thrown out of the equation.

However, from now on, to make it convenient, I will add my last minute changes to the article, at the bottom.

The gamble to keep JP Duminy out of the team paid off big time, but I can only take credit for it if I put to use the saved transfer properly. I hope the way Shane Watson played justified my theory of ‘he has always been in decent form but was outplayed by pitches and bowlers who don’t suit his style of batting in the 2014 World Cup T20 and the 1st match of IPL 7′.

Looking ahead, there are a number of fixtures where you can employ the ‘schedule mantra’, so we need to be very sure of the transfers we do to be in a position to make use of the 3-match rounds. (click here to learn more about schedule mantra)

Dwayne Smith may have got the better of Brendon McCullum in the first of the two fixtures, but you need to wait to see what happens in the next Super Kings match to value how good a pick he was.

Kings 11 Punjab vs. Sunrisers Hyderabad:

Guru’s team for the Sunrisers Hyderabad vs. Kings 11 Punjab

Transfers made – 1; Transfers remaining – 61

David Warner in – Shane Watson outLokesh Rahul in – Dhawal Kulkarni out

Captain – David Warner

Glenn Maxwell will have to deal with Dale Steyn and Amit Mishra, while David Warner will be up against the worst bowling attack in the IPL. I go for Warner, a move which is well worth it. Moreover, do you really think that he will score another 45-ball 90?

David Warner to feast on Kings 11 bowlers:

There isn’t much to pick between Aaron Finch and David Warner, but, if there is a threat to anyone making it big, it should be to Finch; he will be facing Mitchell Johnson when the ball moves around and the left-arm spinners who could dart something in or beat him in flight.

Shikhar Dhawan isn’t worth the risk, as it isn’t yet clear if he is back to his best. While we can expect the Sunrisers to be positive in the way they handle Darren Sammy, if both Finch and Warner fire, there wouldn’t be much time for him to make an impact. Since he is in the team already, there is no option but to stick with him in hope that he gets to face a good number of deliveries.

The pitch at Sharjah has been extremely good for batting, and hence the Sunrisers bowlers, with the exception of Amit Mishra who is already in the team, stay out.

Kings 11 Punjab:

Don’t ever pick George Bailey:

Finally, I was able to get a clear idea of what plans George Bailey has for the season. As I predicted, Wriddhiman Saha was used as a floater, and don’t be surprised if it is done again. Unlike the promotion of Akshar Patel, it makes sense, too. So David Miller comes in at No. 5, as Bailey has demoted himself to No. 6. The fact that he bats himself at No. 6 has ruled him out of contention for any of the Kings 11 matches in this season.

Schedule Mantra keeps Miller out:

Although Miller can be expected to make an impression, the fact that KXIP play their second match only after a span of 5 IPL matches makes him ineligible for Guru’s fantasy team selection. He should have ideally been brought in ahead of the Rajasthan Royals match, but I wasn’t sure about where he will bat. Bringing him now only indicates panic.

This will be the second transfer saved as per Guru’s mantra. There have been some misconceptions in the way certain readers have understood on how to go about it; therefore, I will try to shed more light into the theory.

You may have noticed that although Kings 11 had 2 matches in a 3-match round, I wasn’t getting in players like Virender Sehwag and Mitchell Johnson into my team. It doesn’t mean that just because a team plays two matches in a short span, you can get in any random player ahead of a star, which is how it has been understood by a few: it is still based on the ability, certainty and the probability of the player making any impact.

I kept Duminy out because he bats too low and has the probability of facing Ravichandran Ashwin, who can get the better of him. It was not illogical. I wouldn’t do it to Warner this time around, as he bats in the top 3 and has no real speed breakers on his way to make a big score against the Punjab-based franchise. Even in the example I had given in the last article, it was Mishra over Sunil Narine and not, say, Ravindra Jadeja over Narine. There is a subtle difference, and I hope you get it. It needs expertise to employ it the right way.

Uncapped player:

The uncapped player pick for this match is a bit tricky: Lokesh Rahul at 4 is worth it, but Sammy can get promoted if two of Warner, Finch and Dhawan bat 13 odd overs out, which is very likely to happen given the standard of Kings 11 bowling. Akshar is sure to get carted, while Karan Sharma doesn’t have much scope, too. The only other option is to pick a player from the next match, i.e., Rajasthan Royals vs. Chennai Super Kings. Since we already have 3 uncapped players from that team, it is ruled out, as well. So I have to make a call among Rahul, Karan and Akshar, and I go in with Rahul, in the hope that he two of Sunrisers wickets fall in the first 10 overs.

Chennai Super Kings vs. Rajasthan Royals:

Guru’s team for the Chennai Super Kings vs. Rajasthan Royals match

Transfers made – 0; Transfers remaining – 61

Dhawal Kulkarni in – Lokesh Rahul outCaptain – Suresh Raina

The Super Kings are playing their second match in a 3-match round, which means all the picks that were made before were done keeping in mind the same. While I was very much tempted to have Ben Hilfenhaus ahead of the Delhi Daredevils match, I went against it after much thinking, as I was not sure of how he would be used with two very similar bowlers in Ishwar and Mohit Sharma in the team. As I predicted, Dhoni threw a surprise by bowling him only once in the first 6 overs, thereby nullifying his potent weapon: swing.

If he plans to use him this way, Samuel Badree will be a much better option, as the Australian quickie is poor at death.

Rajasthan Royals:

While the option of taking Watson back in is an enticing one, given the form that Ashwin finds himself in and the possibility of him bowling in tandem with Jadeja to the Australian big hitter keeps me away from taking the risk. While it would have been preposterous to judge that Watson wouldn’t bowl after the first match against Sunrisers, it is now evident, from the fixture against Kings 11 Punjab, that he has opted to stay away from bowling for reasons better known to him.

I don’t buy into this theory of him not bowling due to the captaincy pressure. Also, the team management would deprive them of the biggest asset they have if they opt to go this way of shielding him from bowling.

Uncapped players:

Regarding uncapped players, Dhawal Kulkarni will slot in ahead of Lokesh Rahul. He is picked ahead of Pravin Tambe, as the 42-year-old leg-spinner is likely to lock horns with Suresh Raina, Faf du Plessis, MS Dhoni and Ravindra Jadeja, who are quite adept at handling him, while Kulkarni can swing both Dwayne Smith and Brendon McCullum out.

The need for the concept of ‘toss trick’, a unique concept which even the best of fantasy players won’t be aware of, hasn’t come in this edition of IPL, yet. I hope I see the need for it, so that I can bring it into light.

Till then, Keep calm and trust the schedule mantra.

Update 1: 7.45 pm, April 22 – No extra changes or alterations for the KXIP vs. SRH match.

Update 2: 7.53 pm, April 23 – No extra changes or alterations for the RR vs. CSK match.