Which Australian pacer will be the unlucky one to be left out of the XI for the Ashes?

Australia’s fast bowlers for Ashes 2015

Just when the entire cricketing world has been ruing the fact that the game is slowly tilting in the favour of batsmen more than ever, the announcement of the Australian squad for the upcoming Ashes series has put such fears to rest at least for now. With a squad that boasts of a daunting group of fast bowlers in Mitchell Johnson, Mitchell Starc, Petter Siddle, Josh Hazlewood and Ryan Harris, the prospect of the sheer pace and ruthlessness that will be on display is almost cathartic for any cricket fan who mourns the unfair shifting of balance towards batting in the recent past.

The prospect of any of these couple of bowlers steaming in, in tandem from both ends, is almost a throwback to the good old days of fast bowling.

But the presence of five excellent fast bowlers in the squad all of whom can bulldoze the opposition on their day has thrown up a selection quandary like never before. The Australian coach, Darren Lehman along with the national selectors Mark Waugh, Rod Marsh and Trevor Hohns are believed to be having sleepless nights about whom to leave out for the first Test starting in Cardiff on 8th July.

Johnson still remains first choice

Dispelling rumours that Johnson has fallen down the pecking order, Mark Waugh recently reiterated that Mitchell Johnson will lead the attack for the Aussies. Johnson's pace seems to have dropped a bit but given his performances in the last Ashes, any suggestions that he might be dropped seems ridiculous at best.

The reigning ICC cricketer of the year, the very presence of Johnson in the team is bound to rake up the ghosts of the last Ashes in the English dressing room. Johnson was the main man instrumental in turning things around in the first Test at the Gabba in the 2013-14 Ashes series when his 4-61 in the first match triggered an unthinkable English collapse. England lost a staggering six wickets for nine runs to be bowled out for a paltry 136 in the first innings. Johnson's spell of fiery fast bowling reminded the world of the swaggering superiority of the Aussie quicks of the 90s.

Johnson's spell set the tone for the series. In the second Test at Adelaide, he followed it up with a career-defining spell of 7 for 40 including three wickets in a single over shortly after lunch. Johnson would eventually end the series with a whopping 37 wickets at an incredible average of 13.97. The most valuable contribution of Johnson was that he managed to instil fear in the minds of the batsmen very early in the series. His probing line from round the wicket where he targeted both batsmen's stumps and their bodies is not bound to be forgotten by the English batsmen anytime soon. Johnson's inclusion, therefore, will not be a doubt as the Australians hope that he can repeat his form from the previous Ashes.

The rise of Starc and Hazlewood

Mitchell Starc has had a phenomenal year and it will be only fair if he gets to share the new ball with Mitchell Johnson. Starc was the star performer in the 2015 World Cup where he bagged 22 wickets at an economy of 3.58 and was adjudged the Man of the Tournament. He has followed it up with some brilliant performances playing for the Royal Challengers Bangalore in the latest edition of the IPL. He was also Australia's leading wicket-taker across all formats of first-class and international cricket for the 2014-15 season with 60 wickets. With the top form he is in, Starc is believed by many to be an automatic choice for the selectors after Johnson.

The recent form of Josh Hazlewood has also put him in serious contention for selection for the first Test. He was chiefly instrumental for the demolition of the West Indies batsmen in the recently concluded series where he bowled with pace and accuracy finishing as the leading wicket-taker with 12 scalps from two matches at an average of 8.83.

Hazlewood, whose ability to hit the same spot time and again has already elicited comparisons with the legendary Glenn McGrath, is touted by many to be the favourite to grab a spot in the starting eleven ahead of the likes of Peter Siddle and Ryan Harris. Hazlewood might also squeeze in ahead of Starc, because the majority of Starc’s recent phenomenal success has come in the shorter formats.

The promising 24-year-old New South Welshman remains unperturbed by the healthy competition between the fast bowlers in the Aussie squad. "There's plenty of competition for spots which I think is a good thing," he says, "it keeps you on your toes and keeps bringing out the best in the bowlers that are picked for each individual game."

Competition for the third spot

With Johnson and Starc considered almost certain to be in the starting eleven, Hazlewood, Harris and Siddle find themselves involved in a fierce competition for the remaining third spot. If Hazlewood is chosen, it will be extremely disappointing for Siddle and Harris who gave brilliant performances in the last Ashes series.

That Siddle with his wealth of experience in English conditions and a career that boasts of 192 Test wickets, including 67 in Ashes Tests, remains a doubt speaks volumes of the strength of the Australian squad. The explosive but injury-prone Ryan Harris seems to have fallen down the pecking order and is strongly believed to be the one to miss out in the first Test. But such an exclusion will be extremely unfortunate as his performances in the 2013-14 series have been nothing short of brilliant where he was the wrecker-in-chief after Johnson and finished with 22 wickets.

Ryan Harris has also found support from Shane Warne recently who said that he would personally prefer Harris ahead of Hazlewood. "Hazlewood has bowled beautifully and is a perfect new-ball bowler for English conditions but, for me, Ryan Harris is one of the greatest fast bowlers Australia have had. (England have) got a few budgies against Mitchell Johnson and (Mitchell) Starc is probably the best fast bowler in the world, so Hazlewood might be unlucky to miss out."

A complex dilemma for the selectors

It is also possible that with such promising quicks in their ranks, Australia might just be tempted to play four fast bowlers. But such a decision though possible looks improbable at best with the selection of Fawad Ahmed in addition to Nathan Lyon in the squad.

“Two of those five guys are going to be unbelievably unlucky to miss out," wrote Darren Lehman recently in a column on the Cricket Australia website. "But that’s what happens when you’re playing good cricket. You have to make those hard decisions. We just have to pick the right three fast bowlers to take the 20 wickets in that first Test. And that’s not to say we’ll play those three all series, but we’ll just pick the XI for that match and go from there.”

Lehman accepted that the two warm-up matches against Kent and Essex will play a big role in influencing the decision of the selectors. “We need to see how the bowlers pull up and how they bowl in the different conditions, on different pitches and with the different ball," he added.