AC Milan vs Barcelona : Can Milan’s depleted team wear down the mighty Catalans?

Two of Europe’s great clubs, AC Milan and Barcelona, will lock horns for the fourth time (eight matches) in three years. These clashes have usually been edgy, fiercely contested and seen their fair share of controversy: the Barcelona leg of the 2011-12 Champions League quarterfinals was rocked by a dodgy penalty award to Barca that arguably turned the match.

(Incidentally, tonight’s referee Felix Byrch was in the news this weekend for declaring this to be a goal during a Bundesliga match. An omen?)

Overview

This is the second time Barcelona are visiting AC Milan in 2013. While Barca are the odds-on favourites today, they have not scored at the San Siro in their last two visits, with their UCL 2nd round tie in February ending in an embarrassing 2-0 defeat.

That said, Milan look a weaker team, and some of the key personnel from that battle (Massimo Ambrosini, Kevin-Prince Boateng and Giampaolo Pazzini) will be missing this time through sale or injury.

Mario Balotelli’s thigh injury makes him a doubtful starter tonight, which is a big blow for the Rossoneri. The Italian forward remains enigmatic as ever, but he has firmly established himself as Milan’s go-to man over the past few months. Milan’s other attacking options are unattractive, to say the least: Stephan El-Sharaawy is struggling for form, Robinho has been unsatisfactory, Alessandro Matri is yet to score for Milan and Kaka is reprising his Madrid grind – struggling with injuries. Christian Abbiati is injured as well, so Marco Amelia will replace him between the sticks.

Barcelona, on the other hand, are likely to field a full-strength unit. Jordi Alba will be the sole absentee through injury, but Alexis Sanchez has made the trip to Italy, as have Dani Alves, Andres Iniesta, Gerard Pique and Lionel Messi.

What Milan’s gameplan might look like

Milan have made a slow start to the season. Currently they sit in 8^th place in Serie A, well below where they would like to be; but in the Champions League they sit right behind Barcelona in second place. However, they are winning no fans with their sterile and defensive style of play.

Against Ajax, they sat back and did not even attempt to play ball. They were outplayed for the first 80 minutes, but equalized with a late penalty to grab a point.

They lack the creativity and leadership in midfield and attack to make things happen – but here, Milan have only themselves to blame. The sale of Boateng to Schalke is questionable, as he had over three years at Milan matured into a very good attacking midfielder. His replacement, Kaka, is clearly in the autumn of a stellar career. And their gamble on Matri appears to be failing.

With their paucity of options going forward, Milan are likely to hang back and try to hit Barca on the counter. The man to initiate any long-ball moves is central midfielder Ricardo Montolivo, who has been played at number ten in a few games this season to compensate for the loss of attacking potential.

Montolivo is not a natural forward and has struggled in the role. He is likely to do better playing deeper, releasing the centre-forward with a trademark lob over the heads of the defence. Nigel de Jong will probably play alongside as a holding midfielder. Ignazio Abate will provide a threat for Milan on the flanks if he starts. His pace on the right could worry Barca in Alba’s absence.

Barcelona

In sharp contrast to Milan the Blaugrana are perched comfortably, topping the La Liga table and their Champions League group. Under Tata Martino, they have attempted to add an extra edge to their game: strange things like counter-attacks and long balls are now in evidence. His tactical ability in big games will be tested for the first time this week, today and in the Clasico over the weekend.

Against a team that caused them trouble away with a defensive shape last year, Martino might be tempted to play Pique forward and bang him a few long balls to head at goal; or to invite pressure from Milan’s midfield before using Pedro’s speed on the counter. Either way, while Barca are expected to score, their defence remains a weak point in Europe. Marc Bartra has stepped up well, but a strong counter by Milan could see them exposed at the back.

Formations and major tussles

Although both sides are likely to play a 4-3-3, the main contest, due to sheer weight of numbers, is likely to be in the Milan half – most of it on the edge of their box. The key player here (obviously) is going to be Messi, whose last visit to the stadium was a torrid one as Ambrosini and Philippe Mexes combined excellently to bully the Argentine off the park. That role will be played by Nigel de Jong today, though it remains to be seen how long he can deny the diminutive forward. If Alexis Sanchez starts alongside Messi, Cristian Zapata will probably be detailed to cover him, with Neymar providing a third forward thrust from the flanks.

Predictions : The home advantage may count in Milan’s favour. Beyond that, unless Balotelli starts, they have no obvious weapons. The margin will be narrow if Milan defend doggedly, but Barcelona are in fine fettle and should win. We can expect a 0-1 or 1-2 scoreline.