Analysis: UEFA Champions League semifinals

It’s been a great year of European football. From 32 teams in September, we finally have our final four- Hot favourites and holders Bayern Munich, the mighty Real Madrid, English giants Chelsea and surprise semifinalists Atletico Madrid. The first leg of the Atletico-Chelsea semifinal will be played in Madrid on April 22. Chelsea will look to avenge their 4-1 hammering at the hands of Atletico in the 2012 Super Cup final.

The second semifinal features the mouthwatering clash between Real Madrid and Bayern Munich which will be played at the Santiago Bernabeu on April 23. Real Madrid too will be out for revenge; their semifinal loss to Byaern on penalties in the 2011-12 edition will no doubt be on their minds.

Let’s a take an overview of the four semifinalists.

BAYERN MUNICH

Bayern Munich

Without a shadow of a doubt, they’ve been the most dominant European team for the past two seasons. The “surprise finlaists” just four seasons ago against Inter Milan, it’s amazing how they’ve improved. It’ll be a surprise if they really this time. Their knockout stage performances this season haven’t been as emphatic as last season- 4-0 on aggregate against Juventus, 7-0 on aggregate against Barcelona- but they’ve looked solid. They had a few wobbles especially against English opposition, but they always seemed to have it under control.

Strengths: Manuel Neuer is arguably the best goalkeeper in the world, often seen playing as a sweeper when his team need him or are in a very comfortable position. A very solid back four with Dante and Jerome Boateng in the centre; David Alaba and Rafinha as the fullbacks, always looking to make runs down the flanks and crossing it into the danger area. Possibly the best midfield around with the likes of Bastian Schweinsteiger, captain Phillip Lahm- former right back, Toni Kroos, Mario Gotze and Javi Martinez.

Two dynamic wingers in Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben- often referred to as ‘Robbery’- a constant threat to any back four due to their speed and goal scoring ability. Mario Mandzukic has shown us exactly why Bayern bought him from Wolfburg and played him ahead of the dangerous Mario Gomez last seaon. Good dribbling skills, finishing and very good in the air- a very handy striker. Manager Pep Guardiola has changed their playing style this season; they love to keep the ball and play a very good passing game; very often seen keeping 70-80% possesion even against strong teams like Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund.

Weaknesses: It is often hard to find a weakness in this Bayern Munich team, but their last few performances have shown that they are certainly not invincible. Bayern’s attacking style of play, with so many men going forward, often leave them vulnerable to counter attacks, which was evident in their tie against Manchester United. This plays right into Real Madrid’s strength. They have to be more organized at the back; Manuel Neuer should not be seen sprinting down the pitch in order to make a clearance.

REAL MADRID

Real Madrid

With 76 titles- including 32 La Liga titles and 9 European titles- possibly the greatest football club ever. Having breezed through the group stages and the Round of 16, they were given a huge scare when a spirited Borussia Dortmund side put two goals past legendary goalkeeper Iker Casillas in the return leg of the quarterfinal. They were always favorites to go through after their 3-0 first leg win, but it wasn’t at all easy.

Real Madrid have looked solid till the semifinals in the last three seasons, but they just can’t seem to advance to the elusive final, having been stopped by Barcelona in 2011, Bayern Munich in 2012 and Borussia Dortmund last year. Could this be Real Madrid’s time?

Strengths: Even though he hasn’t played a single league game this season, Iker Casillas has had some brilliant performances in the Champions League and Spanish Cup. He will most probably be played ahead of Diego Lopez, having played all the previous matches. He will be key if Real have any chance of going through. Manager Carlo Ancelotti has shuffled his defence quite a bit, with Sergio Ramos, Pepe and Rafael Varane as the centre backs, although Varane, the French wonderkid has been underutilized. The back four of Sergio Ramos, Pepe, Alvaro Arbeloa and Marcelo seems to be the best and most likely for the semifinal.

A world class midfield with the likes of Xabi Alonso, Luka Modric, Isco, who have all been in good form. Arguably the two best wingers in the business right now- Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale. They are also the most expensive footballers ever. Both have been in great form. Ronaldo especially has shown us why he’s the best player on the planet right now, a title that had been held by Leo Messi of Barcelona for the past four years. Ronaldo has found the net in every Champions League matches he has played this season- 14 goals in 8 matches. He has been in fine form in the league as well, scoring goals for fun.

His fitness, however, has been a concern of late. Di Maria, the second choice winger has ably filled the void. Karim Benzema’s form has been very inconsistent; yes, he has scored some great goals but has been missing the target on easy opportunities, something that he cannot afford to do against Bayern Munich. Real Madrid’s counter attacking style of play makes them one of the most dangerous teams to play against, with Alonso, the master passer, Modric, the playmaker, Ronaldo and Bale, the pacy wingers with great goal scoring abilities and a handy striker up front in Benzema.

Weaknesses: Real Madrid on paper are easily one of the best teams around, but their problem of late has been the constant shuffling of players. Ancelotti plays Ramos, Varane and Pepe in different combinations which makes overall co-ordination quite hard and leads to defensive errors, which evident against Dortmund. Other than that, the team has looked solid, especially in the Champions League.

ATLETICO MADRID

Atletico Madrid

Forever living in the shadows of Real Madrid and Barcelona, Atletico Madrid have not enjoyed much success in the recent past, especially not in Spain. Many are suggesting that this will be the season they step out of the shadows of their rivals and achieve much deserved domestic and European success.

The current league leaders are just 5 matches away from winning their first La Liga title in 18 years; from now till the end it’ll be a test of their nerves. By beating Barcelona in the quarterfinals, they qualified for their first Champions League semifinal in 40 years. Given their history in the tournament, Diego Simeone’s side will be labeled “the underdogs”; but they are the last team you’d want to take lightly.

Strengths: Chelsea loanee Thibaut Courtois has been a huge factor in their recent success. The young Belgian goalkeeper has been in fine form keeping clean sheets against teams like Barcelona and Real Madrid. The back four of Juanfran, Miranda, Diego Godin and Filipe Luis has worked very well, making them the best side defensively in La Liga, conceding just 22 goals in 33 matches- 0.67 goals per match. They have a very well balanced milfield, with Koke, Arda Turan, Raul Garcia, captain Gabi and the winter transfer window arrival Diego- his crucial away goal against Barcelona was of vital importance.

The 32 year old David Villa too has had a good season and has looked threatening up front. Without a doubt their player of the season is Diego Costa. With the departure of Falcao, he had big shoes to fill and has done so incredibly well, scoring 34 goals in all competiotions, including 26 in the league, making him the second highest goal scorer.

Weaknesses: Atletico Madrid is a very good side and haven’t shown too many weaknesses even against the big sides. They have, however, suffered some shock defeats, most notably their 2-0 loss to struggling Almeria a couple of months ago. They have a good team but what they lack experience at this stage of Europe’s elite tournament. Other than David Villa, no one in the current line-up has played a Champions League semifinal. It will be a test of nerves but recent performances have suggested that it a test which they can pass.

CHELSEA

Chelsea

The 2012 champions, who have reached seven semifinals in the last 11 years have shown that they have it in them to win big matches. Having overturned a 3-1 deficit against a dangerous PSG side, they will bewill be full of confidence when they face Atletico on April 22. Chelsea have also been denied domestic success by the dominance of Manchester United.

Chelsea had a disastrous campaign last year becoming the first holders to get knocked out in the group stages of the competition. This season has been much more promising. Though their Premier League hopes depend heavily on Manchester City and Liverpool’s remaining performances, they have the chance to win their second Champions League title, which will be manager Jose Mourinho’s third in his managerial career.

Strengths: Petr Cech, the most successful goalkeeper in the Premier League era has been a consistent performer for Chelsea for several years. His performance in the 2012 Champions League semifinal and final were crucial. The “meanest defence” in the Premier League, conceding just 24 goals in 34 matches- 0.70 goals per match. The back four of Branislav Ivanovic, Gary Cahill, John Terry and Cesar Azpiliqueta has worked very well for them, keeping clean sheets against nearly all big teams this season. A very exciting mifield, with the likes of Brazilans Ramires, Willian and Oscar, Andre Schurrle, David Luiz- the makeshift holding midfielder and the experienced Frank Lampard has been the driving force behind Chelsea’s performances this season.

Eden Hazard has been a sensation this season, operating on the left wing. With 17 goals and 10 assists in all competitions, without a doubt Chelsea’s player of the season. Nemanja Matic, having joined Chelsea this winter has given them that much needed spark in defensive midfield. He is, however, unavailable for the Champions League for Chelsea, having already played for Portugese side, Benfica. Much like Real Madrid, Chelsea play a counter attacking style of football, with speedsters Ramires, Willian and Hazard, with Oscar proving the creativity.

Weaknesses: The strike force of Fernando Torres, Demba Ba and Samuel Eto’o have been well below par, scoring just 16 out of 66 league goals. In Europe, however, they have been performing better- scoring 10 out of the 17 goals Chelsea have scored thus far. They certainly need to be at their best in the semifinal against the dangerous Villa and Costa. If this issue can be addressed, they will be a very tough team to beat.

VERDICT

First semifinal- Atletico Madrid vs. Chelsea

It will be a very exciting match. Both with very good goalkeepers and defenses. Atletico with a better strike force but Chelsea with a better midfield. On paper, it’s very tough to call. The first leg will be held in Madrid and I will not be too surprised if Mourinho and his Chelsea team “park the bus”- an expression commonly used to descibe Chelsea’s defensive performances. Chelsea have pulled off some amazing performances in return legs of the Champions League- 4-2 against Barcelona in 2005, 4-1 against Napoli in 2012 and most recently, 2-0 against PSG. So, the fact that the second leg will be played at Stamford Bridge might benefit Chelsea especially if they can get a result away.

Key players: Diego Costa for Atletico Madrid, Eden Hazard for Chelsea.

Final verdict: Chelsea go through to the final.

Second semifinal- Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich

On paper, it’s almost too close to call. World class goalkeepers and midfields at either end. Bayern might just hold a slight advantage when it comes to the striker and defense. However good Ribery and Robben are, they are certainly not as effective as the Real Madrid wingers, Bale and Ronaldo. Ronaldo fitness has been a question mark lately, a lot will depend on his presence.

The first leg at the Santiago Bernabeu will be of vital importance, a match which I feel Real Madrid have to win by at least two goals if they have any chance of qualifying. Bayern Munich at the Allianz Arena is a daunting prospect; however, strangely, most of their recent losses have come at their home stadium.

Key players: Gareth Bale for Real Madrid, Franck Ribery for Bayern Munich.

Final verdict: Bayern Munich go through to the final.