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There is no doubt that the London derby between Arsenal and Chelsea to be played at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday will play a significant role in the Blues’ push for the Premier League title. Neither recent history nor Arsene Wenger’s record against Jose Mourinho will be pleasing for the Gunners.
The North London side last emerged victorious over Chelsea in October 2011 when they ran out 3-5 victors over their London rivals. In the 7 games that have transpired since, the Gunners have lost 5 and drawn 2. Further, the Arsenal manager has come up 12 times against Mourinho and has failed to beat him on all occasions (D5 L7).
There is, however, a major factor to consider Arsenal have been in formidable form recently – they have come out winners in their last 8 EPL fixtures (24 out of 24 points won). It isn’t just their wins but the fashion in which they have carved out these victories that has been impressive. As Wenger said, “Football is down to the fact that the performance on the day will decide the game and the result, so let's focus on that.”
Arsenal, who are second in the Premier League table with 66 points and 6 games to go, can get a maximum of 84 points at the end of the season. This means that table toppers Chelsea who are on 76 points need at least 9 points from the 18 available to them to ensure that the title will go to Stamford Bridge.
There is, however, the small matter of the London Derby that will be crucial to Chelsea’s title chances. Here’s a look at how it will pan out for Chelsea in different scenarios:
If Chelsea win
A win will virtually guarantee Mourinho’s men the title. It will extend Chelsea’s 10-point lead to 13 points ahead of Arsenal. Crucially, this also means that Arsenal’s points tally at the end of the season can only be a maximum of 81 points.
This would mean that if the Blues secure three points against Leicester City in the next fixture, they will be champions. And if that happens, Liverpool will be expected to give the Blues a guard of honour at Stamford Bridge.
If the match ends in a Draw
A draw in this game would leave the West London club requiring a maximum of 6 points from the remaining 5 games to win the title.
This means they could win the title against Crystal Palace with a total of 83 points that would put them ahead of Arsenal’s highest possible points tally for the season (82).
If Arsenal win
A loss to Arsenal will leave the league leaders needing 9 points from 5 games to seal the title. Interestingly, this scenario will leave Chelsea under the most pressure as they come up against relegation-battling Leicester City, a rejuvenated Crystal Palace and a top-4 chasing Liverpool in their next three games.
While we’re assuming wins for Arsenal and Chelsea in fixtures other than while they face each other, the Premier League has never failed to surprise us and surely there are a few more twists ahead of us. The question that remains is, which way will the pendulum swing?
Arsenal’s biggest hurdle on paper looks like Manchester United at Old Trafford in the penultimate weekend of the EPL. This season still has a long way to go.
