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Barcelona have made Luis Suarez their primary target in the transfer window. As per media reports, discussions began yesterday between officials of both the clubs in London. The transfer saga is likely to continue for a few days at least and may even be similar to Gareth Bale’s season long transfer saga last year. In this article, let us look into how Suarez’s absence will affect Liverpool.
Importance of Luis Suarez
Suarez has been an integral part of the Liverpool team under Brendan Rodgers. Liverpool’s spectacular title challenge last season, was largely credited to the Suarez-Sturridge partnership upfront. Liverpool had missed Suarez for 10 games in 2013, after his infamous bite, 9 of these games were in the Premier League.
| Situation | Matches | Points | Points per game | Goals Scored | Goals scored per game |
| During Suarez’s last suspension | 9 | 20 | 2.22 | 15 | 1.66 |
| 2013-14 with Suarez | 33 | 74 | 2.24 | 96 | 2.91 |
Out of the nine league games during Suarez’s suspension, four were played at the end of 2012-13 season, where Liverpool were not competing for a place in Europe or for any of the cups and the remaining five games were at the start of 2013-14 season. During the suspension, barring the Newcastle United game, Liverpool’s goals scored average was 1 goal per game. It is evident that Liverpool found it difficult to score freely in the absence of Suarez.
After Suarez’s return Liverpool almost averaged 3 goals per game. The sample size in the two comparisons is quite different, but it gives an idea of how potent Liverpool were with Suarez in the team. Last season, Suarez was involved in more than 50 goals directly either by scoring them or assisting or being involved in penalty incidents or shots leading to own goals. That contributed to more than half of the team’s goals when Suarez was on the field.
Liverpool’s points per game remained more or less the same during both the periods. However, the period during the suspension did not include any games against the top 4 teams and Tottenham Hotspur. This indicates that Liverpool were able to maintain their form over a large period which included tougher fixtures when Suarez was involved in the team.
Under Dalglish, Liverpool’s record had been better without Suarez in the team than with Suarez. However, since Rodgers took over, the situation hasn’t quite been the same. Liverpool have been extremely lethal in attack with Suarez leading from the front. If Suarez leaves, Liverpool need to add quality attacking players to their squad to support the likes of Coutinho, Sterling, Lallana, Lambert and Sturridge.
Have Liverpool learnt from past mistakes?
The last time a high profile signing left Anfield was in January 2011, when Fernando Torres left for Chelsea. Liverpool followed the sale of Torres with a last minute panic buy of Andy Carroll for a fee of 35 million pounds. The signing effectively put Liverpool back a couple of seasons in their hunt to be back in the Champions League. Carroll was a big failure and Liverpool could not recoup enough money from Carroll’s sale in 2013.
Liverpool need to be prepared to sign alternatives for Suarez this time around. The club cannot be held to ransom over the fee as was the case during the Carroll signing. The deals for alternatives have to be in place to cover for Suarez’s sale.
Last season, Tottenham Hotspur sold Gareth Bale and bought the likes of Soldado, Lamela , Paulinho and other players to strengthen their squad for the same price. On paper, it seemed to be a great deal for Tottenham. At the start of the season, Tottenham were tipped to be title challengers. At the end of the season they were not even close in the race for a Champions League spot.
The players who replaced Bale, never really settled into the squad and it eventually led to Andre Villas Boas being sacked by Christmas. Liverpool need to be wiser while spending the money available from the potential sale of Suarez. The money could be invested in reinforcing their defence which was a major concern last season. Replacements need to fit in the playing system and need to be signed early to allow the players to settle in the squad.
Change of Formation
Brendan Rodgers used a 4-3-1-2 (diamond) and 4-3-3 formation towards the later parts of the season. Suarez and Sturridge played upfront in the diamond formation while Suarez played on the wings and Sturridge more centrally in the 4-3-3. During the games there was a lot of flexibility in the formation with Suarez Sturridge and Sterling often swapping positions. With the departure of Suarez, it would be interesting to see if Rodgers sticks with a diamond or shifts to a 4-3-3 formation as his primary formation.
Rodgers always has been a great fan of 4-3-3 since he arrived at Liverpool. He tweaked his formation to get the best out of Suarez and Sturridge. He used a 3-5-2 as well to get the best out of his players during parts of last season. During Suarez’s absence last season, Liverpool used 4-2-3-1 as their formation in all of the five league games. However with Gerrard being shifted to a deeper role since January, it is likely that Rodgers could stick with a 4-3-3 formation.
Suarez’s replacements would depend a lot on the system Rodgers chooses to play with. Having already signed Lambert and Borini back from his loan, Liverpool have decent cover for Sturridge. Liverpool have been linked heavily with Sanchez, Markovic and Shaqiri in the past few weeks. All these players can play on the flanks as well as behind the striker which is another indicator that Liverpool could shift to a single striker system. If Rodgers chooses playing two upfront , he could look at striking options such as Mario Balotelli or Alvaro Morata.
Liverpool fans would certainly be better prepared this time for the departure of Suarez unlike last year or when Torres left. Irrespective of whether the transfer does happen or not , Luis Suarez remains a hero among the Liverpool faithful. In the past, Liverpool have dealt with the departures of Keegan , Dalglish and Fowler well. Only time will tell if the same happens when Suarez leaves.
