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11 fights on the card, everyone made weight. 1 title on the line, Rousey vs McMann for the Bantamweight title. Lines on the move, Rousey is getting near -500 as she opened just under -400. I am shocked to see that she isn’t -800 or more. Cormier is holding steady at 14-1 and I can’t imagine much action on a fight like that, maybe some dog money late. 2 favorites have dropped some, Alexis Davis is now down to -140(go and get it!) as she was -160 early in the week. Same thing with Stephen Thompson, having dropped down a little to -125. Erik Koch is cheap at -430 but will leave it off the list of plays so I can improve my R.O.I. Let’s get to the fights;
Yosdenis Cedeno -300 vs Ernest Chavez +250 – won’t risk anything here, a couple of guys I don’t know much about.
Erik Koch -430 vs Rafaello Oliveira +340 – Koch moving up to lightweight gets the perfect opponent; a soft chin and willing to stand and trade. Even though Koch gets hit I think he will be ok in this one and will get the finish.
Zach Makovsky -185 vs Josh Sampo +160 – tempted to go with Sampo but Makovsky looks so big for this weight. I will pass but this will be up for grabs and I think the first significant punches landed will be the deciding factor in the fight.
Aljamain Sterling -260 vs Cody Gibson +220 – another pass for me, not enough info to make a play. wouldn’t lay -260 on Sterling.
Rafael Assuncao -245 vs Pedro Munhoz +205 – boy what a rough opener for Munhoz who has nice upside. Based on what I saw, Munhoz is definitely good enough to win but I think Assuncao has too much experience for me to put up any money. Will cheer for Munhoz but don’t think he will win. Will go the distance.
Alexis Davis -140 vs Jessica Eye +120 – love Davis in this one. I think Davis can control the fight and come forward for 3 rounds. Eye really going to have a rough night trying to get any rhythm. I see Davis getting the next title shot against Rousey. Best Bet.
Stephen Thompson -125 vs Robert Whittaker -105 – I almost want to say I “love” Thompson but not quite. Still, I am on him for this fight. Basically a standup battle and Thompson with more weapons. I know Whittaker is tough but Thompson has a couple fights under his belt and he will be a step ahead(i think)
Mike Pyle -180 vs TJ Waldburger +160 – could be a close fight but I favor Pyle who will be able to neutralize the strength of Waldburger, which means when the fight goes to the ground Waldburger best asset won’t work. Pyle doesn’t really have the power which is the weakness of Waldburger. Thus a close fight but Pyle wins it.
Rory MacDonald -270 vs Demian Maia +230 – mismatch. MacDonald can only get beat if he faces someone with firepower and Maia has none of it. MacDonald won’t get taken down and he can dominate this fight everywhere. This is cheap, be on Rory for an easy win.
Daniel Cormier -1400 vs Patrick Cummins +900 - the way Cormier has gotten so flustered during pre-fight festivities has me a little worried. The late replacement with some talent is nothing but trouble. Nothing to gain on Cormier so just pass. Cummins may be out of his mind taking this fight but he does have a strong fighting background so he’s not 9-1. I hope Cormier gets past this fight because I can’t wait for him to defeat Jon Jones.
Ronda Rousey -470 vs Sarah McMann +375 – another mismatch. look, the only person I think has a real chance to beat Ronda is Alexis Davis and Cris Cyborg. Other than that, it’s no contest. Technique is so one-sided that it makes for a very short fight. Rousey is much better than Sarah on the feet and if the fight goes down to the ground, Ronda will win via armbar. Sarah will try her best but has no shot.
2014 STRAIGHT PLAYS: 4-7 -6.40/PARLAYS: 3-4 -1.90 TOTAL: 5-10 -8.30
Recommended Plays for UFC 170: Total Risk is 10.45
Palays: Ronda Rousey -470 and Rory MacDonald -270 bet 5 to win 3.25
Straight Plays: Alexis Davis -140 bet 4.2 to win 3.0 / Stephen Thompson -125 bet 1.25 to win 1.0
Good luck with your plays.
