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History tends to repeat itself. So if the New York Jets wish to give fans something to cheer about this coming season, they will have to re-write the (stat) books.
Finding Winning Ways
Since their inception in 1960 — as the New York Titans — the Jets have had 24 losing seasons, 11 .500 seasons, and 18 winning seasons.
Of these 53 seasons of football, 14 have resulted in playoff appearances.
Five appearances have resulted in five Wild Card Round losses, four Divisional Round losses, four Conference Round losses, with a single Super Bowl victory.
If history is to be respected, the New York Jets enter the 2014 season with a 34% chance to earn a winning record, a 26% chance to make the postseason, and a slightly less than 2% chance to win the Lombardi Trophy.
Last season, the Jets outplayed their roster depth, to go 8-8.
Following .500 seasons, the New York Jets have gone .500, again, the following season, twice. They have gone on to earn a worse (sub-.500) record seven times. The team has achieved an improved record in just two seasons.
In this more specific scenario, the New York Jets have a 20% chance to improve on last season’s results.
Of course, in sports, things don’t always go as planned. From the Monday Night Miracle — a 2000 match-up against the Dolphins where the Jets overcame a 30-7 deficit at the end of the third quarter, to win 40-37 in overtime — to the heartbreak of the ‘fake spike’ game, the Jets have seen their share of surprises.
Points Matter, Even With a Dominant Defense
The New York Jets’ biggest obstacle may come from within their own organization.
The Jets offense has struggled to put points on the board, in recent seasons, failing to keep pace with the ‘air raid’ offenses of today’s NFL. Once again, history is not in the Jets’ favor, should this trend continue.
With a negative point differential, the team has had just one winning season in franchise history.
Their odds for success get slightly better at a differential of zero or worse, as the Jets can add one more winning season there: back in 2000 they scored and gave up 321 points.
For further evidence of this, the team has never made the playoffs when being 19th or worse in the league in points-scored. It’s important to point out that yards are not as important here, as the team has been as poor as 25th in the NFL in yards gained, while making the postseason.
Not to Say Defense Doesn’t Help…
Points (or points-allowed) are almost nearly as important on the defensive side of the ball, and if Rex Ryan has his way, his team won’t be giving up a lot of them.
The Jets have not missed the playoffs when being fourth or better in the league in points-allowed. This includes a 2009 appearance from a first-year Ryan.
In fact, 11 of their 14 playoff appearances have come when the Jets defense ranked in the top-third of the league in points-allowed. One exception may come from the ’68 season when there were just 10 teams in the Jets’ AFL. The defense ranked 4th in points-allowed — so technically not top-third — but the Super Bowl victory has clouded my judgement.
One Game at a Time
The New York Jets can control their own destiny this coming season, with a GM that still has that new car smell, and a young, but focused roster. While ESPN says Numbers Never Lie, we say that winning another Lombardi Trophy can happen One Jet at a Time.
Numbers via Pro-Football-Reference.com
