I don’t tend to write on the financial side of Arsenal as others do it so well and it is not my thing. However, I was discussing transfers and money with my friend Richard at the Wigan match and in the morning he sent me a link. The link was to a site called ‘Transfer League.’  Apologies if this is old hat and you have all seen it but I had not and it does make for fascinating reading. (Indeed since I began writing this last week I have seen the figures bandied around.)

Those of you who read me regularly, I hope, know that I am objective and write about what interests me and what I think will interest my readers. I have had my frustrations with Wenger and at times have been close to falling off the fence, but in the main I support him as he is the man employed by my Arsenal. He has been criticised for not strengthening in the January window on a few occasions when we could have pushed on. Certainly 2008, 2011 and 2012 spring to mind, but in the main he has done good business for Arsenal, perhaps with one financial hand tied behind his back and the other unable to dip into the pocket.

I am firmly not a financial expert nor would I claim to know the ins and outs of the players’ contracts but simple maths I can master. The web site I mentioned examines the net spend of all the football league clubs as calculated by looking at the outlay on transfers set against net income from players sold. Not definitive at all as it ignores, wages, signing on fees and the cost of losing key players in the case of Arsenal, in particular.

However, it does give some real context to our relative achievements next to our peers in the crazy world that is the EPL. Many will delight in Wenger’s frugality and others will cringe at it. That of course will depend on what type of Gooner you are or indeed if you are just an independent observer.

It is hard however not to be impressed even if not satisfied with 5 successive top 4 finishes when presented with this:

5 YEARS

Before we look at some of the serious points to be made shall we first all laugh at Stoke City and Tony Pulis?

Yes we shall. Stoke City ate officially the third highest net spenders over the past 5 Premier League seasons. The baseball capped genius has spent £88 million of his Chairman’s cash and brought in around £8 million. He net spend of over £80 million, which places The Potters behind only the 2 Oligarchs and they have one Cup Final appearance to show for it.

Enough frivolity for now at least…

- In the past 5 season 6 teams have spent more in players than Arsenal – Chelsea, City, United, Spurs, Liverpool and Aston Villa

- None of the top sides in the League are trading in profit in the transfer market except the Gunners

- Only Liverpool and Spurs have recouped more in player sales

- Arsenal are officially bottom of the net outlay league when you take the average net outlay per season, trading on average at over £7 million in the black over the 5 year of 10 transfer windows.

Now as I said at outset this is far from the whole picture but it is testament to Wenger to have kept us near the top whilst spending in minus net figures over the period. Of course finishing top 4 is not enough and the imagination of the manager in the transfer market and his ability to more than balance the books for his board is too, not enough.

Even had he just broken even over the period 2008-13 instead of turning a profit in the transfer market, he could have spent another £36 million. I think this is the valid criticism for most objective supporters. He did spend a lot last summer but in truth still less than he received for RVP and Alex Song. That hurts the honest regular fan.

Yes we achieved the minimum but has we just invested slightly more than we brought in for selling 2 top players what might have been?

10 YEARS

If we look further back over the past 10 seasons the picture is similar and of course would take into account, an FA Cup, the Invincibles League Title, the Champions League Final and 2 League Cup finals.

I will dispense with including all the teams and stick to the main protagonists:

So even over the longer period taking into account 3 seasons at Highbury before financial constraints on one side, and before huge gate receipts on the other, Arsene was under spending.

The difference of course is that in the early part of this 10 year period Arsenal were winning and our world class talent has less reason to leave for glory. At the time also we were among the higher wage payers which is patently not the case in the latter section of this decade of wheeling and dealing.

As I said at the outset I am not a financial blogger and we all know those who cover those aspects so well, but nevertheless these figures and this website did intrigue me and there are a few obvious conclusions to draw.

- It would be hard to deny that Wenger has an overall good track record of spotting potential and turning that potential into and asset of some genuine value.

- Given our transfer budget compared to some of our rivals this eye for a bargain is going to be essential moving forwards as we simply will not spend on transfer fees what the likes of Chelsea and City are able and willing to play. FFP may impact this but somehow I am not convinced.

- Despite the excessive spending we are not far off Chelsea and City in the points tally in the Premiership

- However something has to change if we are to change challenging into winning in 2013/14.

- If we have continually proved that we can recognise and secure the talent and below par prices the difference between us and the rivals is the retention of that talent

- To retain top class players, or players that we have turned into top class, we have to either win silverware of pay higher wages, ideally both.

- We have a core of a squad that can challenge without doubt as the last 3 months has clearly demonstrated but we have to improve the squad while it is performing, and not after.

- The unavoidable conclusion therefore from all off the above is that we need to reassess the current wage structure and move closer to our rivals for our very top talent, and to attract new additions at the level to take this squad forward. The word is that it may happen but it has to be this summer.

This must, I repeat, be for our existing stars as well as the new ones we hope bring in. For example I would say our most valuable players this season who would be on the radar of any top club in Europe would be Santi Cazorla and Laurent Koscielny. Now both are on long term deals and the old Arsenal way would be to wait until 18 months before the current contract is due to expire. We have seen this improve last season with new deals for the UK core but if we are serious then Santi and Kozza should join the highest earners now. Particularly in the case of Koscielny where a new deal and affirmation that his is the lynchpin of our defence for years will head of Bayern interest at the pass.

Now is the time to add to a good squad. It is the first summer since 2004 when there is (not yet) rumours about any of our strong players wishing to leave. In addition we have numerous on large wages who will leave and do not figure in Wenger’s plans.

I truly believe that whatever any of our rivals do this summer, this close season is the turning point for The Arsenal if the club seize the moment. Large wages off the books, money in the bank and a team that has only 40 league games to go undefeated to make history…

With the debt being paid down and the repayment schedule re-structured and the finance deal for the new kit with Puma secured now is the time to press on and gamble slightly, but will they?

Lionel Messi – 46

Cristiano Ronaldo – 33

Wifried Bony – 31

Radamel Falcao –  27

Edison Cavani – 27

Zlatan Ibrahomvic – 27

Now with the best will in the world I am sure none of us can see us going for any of the above, with the exception of Bony, but is 30 plus in the Eredivisie the same as 30 in the EPL?

Bony is a possible as I have highlighted before

So perhaps I am being harsh perhaps when everyone refers to a 30 goals a season striker they mean in all competitions because that would be impressive. I mean any top striker must be able to do that surely because Adebayor did it in 2008, as I am constantly reminded!! Maybe you are all right and I am wrong but I am not so sure. Is there a target out there in Arsenal’s style and price range that is a 30 goal a season man? Well let’s check it out – Same benchmarks marks apply with 2 games to go – Who has hit 27 or more in all competitions in 2012/13?

Big list?  NO

Lionel Messi – 70

Cristiano Ronaldo – 56

Edison Cavani – 36

Wilfried Bony – 35

Radamel Falcao – 33

Robert Lewandowski – 32

Zlatan Ibrahimovic – 32

Luis Suarez – 30

Robin van Persie – 28

Hardly a huge list again so can we please stop thinking in terms of 25 to 30 goals a season from a central striker. They don’t really exist in numbers and if they do they are costing more than Wenger will pay or certainly demanding higher wages. For Arsenal it should be about a collective contribution and that suits our style of play and the players we have. When Wenger’s sides were at their fluent best there were always multiple contributors – Bergkamp, Henry, Ljungberg, Wiltord and Pires. Arsenal this season, if Podolski notches just one goal in the last 2 games will have 4 players in double figures in the league for the first time since 2002. This is not a situation to be dismissed lightly or to be ignored. If the main contributor in our formation was a 20 goal striker instead of a 12/13 that would be the difference between top 4 and top 2.

So the burning question that remains that is we retain the 4231 is Olivier Giroud the player to step up and add 7/8 extra goal?  I am happy to give him another season leading the line but if we really do this close season have money burning a hole in ‘Le Boss’s poche’ then we can do better? We won’t I suspect compete for Lewandoski, Ibrahimovic (too old) or Rooney (Ha-ha) but I suspect we will spend heavily on a forward. However in Arsenal terms that will mean a bigger transfer fee but not necessarily bigger wages.  This is one assumes the reason for the  links with Jovetic. Class player, bug ticket price but £80k a week would double his current salary. Is Jovetic likely to bring more goals to Arsenal or more creativity? More questions than answers perhaps?

Moi Monsieur Wenger?

However there is a passing thought that occurs as there is one name I have left of the list above who may well finish the season with 30 goals. He is currently on 28 for the season with 2 matches remaining and his side are second in their league 2 points behind the leaders Benfica who they play this weekend. The striker in question is Jackson Martinez  a Columbian who in his first season in Europe since arriving at Porto from Mexico last summer has hit 25 league goal and 3 in the Champions League. Martinez, known as ‘ Cha, Cha, Cha’ for his dancing feet and celebrations has 8 in 18 for his country as is strongly rumoured to be Klop’s target to replace Lewandowski at Dortmund. Now I don’t claim to be an expert on the Portuguese league but I have for many years at the Emirates seen how Porto like to pay the game the right way ,and we all know if he would fit at Dortmund he would fit at Arsenal. He has scored 28 goals in 27 matches for Porto and can finishes naturally with both feet and is fast and great in the air too. He is 26 and heading into his peak year 27-29 as a striker. Enjoy the best of him here and admire the improvisation and the technique

So what’s the catch? Well the price tag is £30/35 million for Porto to be unable to resist losing their prize asset. They turned down a similar bid from Anzhi in the January window. However if as some say we have offered similar for Hazard or Gotze why would we not do so again? Particularly if the wages should not be an issue as with Jovetic even close trebling his current likely deal will not break our structure. Food for thought perhaps and for me this signing would show more intent than signing Jovetic, although part of me still yearns for Lukaku to be honest.

I am not sure about you but I am getting highly frustrated by Santi Cazorla and by default, with Arsene Wenger. Why with Wenger? Because it is his fault that I am frustrated with Santi. Yes, we all love our diminutive playmaker and he has been a success in his first season, but at least for me, he’s not the success he should have been. It is a bold statement about a player who has scored, I think, 15 goals and provided about 10 assists in an Arsenal shirt in his first campaign. 12 and 7 in the Premier League alone is impressive indeed, but could it, perhaps, have been so much more? My answer would be an emphatic YES.

Arsenal have scored more than twice in a league match on only 2 occasions since the end of January and that was against Reading and Norwich. So, what changed at the end of January? Let me tell you, as it is truly winding me up more and more each week. Wenger moved Santi from the attacking midfield role to the flank, where, in my view, he flatters to deceive, makes far less contribution and most annoyingly, never stays in the position anyway. Now, this activity as he floats around may look great, but when the attacking is down the right, our left winger should become our second striker. Podolski does this naturally as does Theo or Gervinho but Cazorla never comes in. He stays on the edge of the box waiting for the ball to come ouy when he should be supporting the central striker. Interestingly, when playing behind the central striker, he does support, effectively playing a superb No.10 role, like in the Reading hatrick.

In fact, in one of the two games we scored more than one, the second and third vs Nowrich only came when Podolski came on. He linked up with Giroud and Santi reverted to CAM and presto, 2 goals in a few minutes. Coincidence? No. The simple fact is that since Santi has been moved out to the left, he has contributed the grand total of one assist in 12 EPL matches and that was against Reading. Given that he should be our main playmaker, this is a crazy situation, particularly when you consider he contributed 6 assists from the head of our midfield, prior to the end of January.

This is even odder when we consider that Lukas Podolski has contributed 9 assists from the left wing in 28 outings from that position. Norwich was not the only game either in which our fortunes changes when Podolski came on to the left striker role and Santi reverted to CAM. If I recall correctly, with both Stoke and Aston Villa at home, the winners were scored when Podolski entered the fray and Santi moved central. 2 games before Podolski was effectively dropped from his left attacking role, he produced one of the most impressive individual performances from an Arsenal player this season, with 3 assist and one goal vs West Ham.

I may believe that Podolski’s best role is centrally in a pair. Although we seem unlikely to see this, but he is certainly a more natural left striker in our system than Cazorla, in my view. The change may have been prompted by Podolski’s apparent carrying of an injury, but I fear it is more to accommodate either Wilshere and Cazorla or Rosicky and Cazorla in the same starting eleven. This dilemma, in turn, was perhaps brought on by the magnificent form of Ramsey alongside Arteta.

It is a juggling act, but to make this simple, in the 12 games Santi has started in the league on the left wing, he has scored 3 and assisted once. In the previous 12 which Podolski started there, he scored 5 and assisted 5. Of course, things are complicated by the suspension to Giroud which has seen Podolski play centrally. He is clearly not 100% fit and has had some criticism, but for me, part of the issue if that the left striker/winger Cazorla is rarely close to him and is roaming wherever he sees fit. This makes him ineffective down the left compared to how it was in the early part of the season with Cazorla, Podolski and Giroud working well together.

The reality is that Ramsey has played his way into the starting 11 whilst Wilshere was out injured and it would appear that Wenger sees Jack as our long term CAM. I suspect most of the fans myself don’t see it that way. Right now, it is a fight out between Rosicky and Wilshere, and it would seem in the manager’s mind, with Santi staying out left. However, much as I like both players enormously, I see Jack as a box to box player, not a creator like Cazorla or TR7. Long term, it is Jack or Rambo in the middle but right now, I would just like to see Santi back at CAM. He is our most creative influence and this influence seems to be diminished when he plays wide left. The player himself gets frustrated out there and is continually drifting in-field to get involved, and is damaging our shape.

Tough decisions  for the last 2 fixtures, but the reality is that most of our best performances have come with Santi at CAM and Podolski at left wing, Add into the melting pot the fact that the German  is not excelling as the sole striker. If Lukas is fit enough, I would stick him back out left and have Gervinho or Theo centrally. This will be hard on Rosicky and Wilshere, but the bottom line is that we have lost our creative spark and I feel a fluid front 3 of Gervinho, Theo and Podolski, with the Spaniard back pulling the strings will prove productive against a tired post Cup Final Wigan. If Podolski is indeed not fit, then I would give the Ox a run out.

Just in case I have not convinced you that Santi Cazorla should be playing the central attacking midfield role v Wigan and Newcastle and not the left wing role, I have one further argument. Much as I like Rosicky and I feel Wishere is the future, the stark fact is that since Santi has been on the left, Jack and Tomas have shared a grand total of one assist between them. Quite frankly, this position, along with the 2 wide men, is the creative hub that is not good enough.

So, to conclude, whilst we may have been winning of late, we have not been doing so comfortably or in style. Now, this is wonderful but it is the improvement of the defensive organisation in the past few months that has seen to this, NOT any improvement in our attacking creativity or threat. Santi Cazorla, having created goal scoring opportunities from August to January, has all but ceased to do so from the left. In addition, he does not fulfil the crucial role of becoming the second central striker when we attack from the right, as Walcott would do when the ball is arriving from the left. Lastly, he never beats his fullback man and whips in a low cross as Theo would do and as Podolski did so often in the early part of the campaign. A left winger who always gets inside makes our attacks wholly predictable.

So, Monsieur Wenger, please stop ignoring the facts to accommodate favourites, however good they may be. Jack and Mozart can play their roles off the bench but the best midfield 3 to take us into the Champions League next season is Arteta, Ramsey and Santi Cazorla, who is wasted and wasteful on the wing.

Robin van Persie of Manchester United shoots at goal during the Barclays Premier League match between against Arsenal at Old Trafford on November 3, 2012 in Manchester, England. (Getty Images)

The absence of Olivier Giroud from the encounter at Emirates this weekend against Manchester United would require a re-think on Arsene Wenger’s part. Add to this the return of Robin van Persie, there is a huge understandable desire to rain on United’s title parade and the general recent failure by Wenger in the tactical battle of wits with Ferguson.

The First Line Up (4-3-3)

(GK) Lukasz Fabianski: This isn’t even a close call. He is the lesser of the two evils at present but there will be those that will argue that Szczesny has managed to keep consecutive clean sheets but he simply isn’t good enough at present. Look at Fulham’s disallowed goal on Sunday, the initial save is woeful as his weak wrists send the ball straight back into the danger area. Arsenal‘s clean sheets have mainly been down to the back four as Wojciech has only had to make five saves in two game.

(RB) Bacary Sagna: The Frenchman will need to be alert and track Nani/Kagawa because he can allow players to run off him, like he did with Steven Pienaar last Tuesday.

(LB) Kieran Gibbs: This might have been the toughest call of all but when it comes Gibbs vs. Monreal. I think Wenger trusts Gibbs more. Fulham are hardly a team with great width, unlike Everton in the game before so it was a sensible decision by Wenger to rest Gibbs.

(CB) Per Mertesacker & Laurent Koscielny: Enough said.

(CDM) Mikel Arteta: I’d much rather see Aaron Ramsey in this role but Arteta will captain the side and he could well have the responsibility for trying to pick up Wayne Rooney when he drops deep. Arteta is in great need of a good game and there’s no better place to start turning it around.

(CDM) Aaron Ramsey: It’s been quite a turnaround for Rambo and he’s been getting some recognition for his good form. He’ll have a lot of work to do off the ball on Sunday but he won’t have any issues delivering a box-to-box performance.

(CM) Jack Wilshere: I think Wenger risked Jack recently by playing him deeper and asking him to cover way too much ground, but he wants him ready for this game. We need Jack to come of age.

(LW) Santi Cazorla: Most fans hate Santi on the wing, but this selection is one of two positions affected by Giroud’s red card at Fulham.

(CF) Lukaz Podolski: The out-of-favour German is our only other recognised centre forward and no, Theo doesn’t count. Walcott would be eaten alive by Ferdinand and Vidic much like he was against Bayern in his last outing as a striker. Podolski loves a shot and certainly has an eye for goal – characteristics that we’ve badly missed as he’s sat on the bench.

(RW) Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain: To be honest Theo warrants being dropped, as he has offered little since his return, which leads me to believe he isn’t fit. Chamberlain isn’t at his best at right wing but what he offers is defensive cover – something Theo is badly lacking and his track record against United isn’t great. Ox had a very good game in our last home game against United and we can have Walcott on the bench to make an impact on the bench.

Tactics

Since the beginning of the 08/09 season the running score is Manchester United 25 Arsenal 9, of those nine goals for us, RVP has netted three times and we’ve only scored twice against them on two occasions in twelve attempts. So there’s a lot of work to be done between now and Sunday. The truth is that Ferguson has Wenger’s number and he has done for a long time. He knows our weaknesses better than Wenger but it be interesting to see who he’ll target come Sunday.

The famous game at Old Trafford that finished 8-2 in United’s favour. (Getty Images)

If you cast your mind back to our game at Old Trafford in October, you’ll remember quite rightly that it was the biggest 2-1 hammering you’ll ever see but Ferguson wanted to surrender possession to Per Mertesacker. Arteta was cut completely out of the game and despite having a pass completion percentage of 94% that was based on 61/65 attempted passes and his most popular combination was with Bacary Sagna (12 passes). On that day Mertesacker attempted a staggering 101 passes with 98 of them finding a teammate. He formed part of our top four most popular pass combinations in the game (all of which contained our back four). Ferguson didn’t care about us having the ball because United were safe, we were at arms length. They had men behind the ball and we couldn’t hurt them with the big German in possession.

That tells you that he doesn’t want our midfield on the ball, so this time around we need the likes of Wilshere, Ramsey and Arteta to have much more possession and we need to expose United’s two in midfield. If Arteta can’t get on the ball then we must ensure Ramsey drops deep and we build through the centre of the park. Ferguson has tortured us down the flanks since we moved to the much criticised 4-3-3 formation but the advantage of a midfield three means you should dominate through the middle and this hasn’t happened in recent times. In 2006 a combination of Cesc Fabregas and Tomas Rosicky worked together brilliantly and it was no surprise that we won 1-0 at Old Trafford.

It frustrates me that United, despite being at their poorest for many years have it so easy against us. It’s time we took some responsibility and forced the issue. Jack needs to set the pace in the middle and press United high up the pitch and restrict how much of the ball the likes of Antonio Valencia, Kagawa or Nani will get.  If we do this then that eases the burden on on our defence which since the North London Derby has been relatively water tight with Koscielny and Mertesacker at the back. In fact we’ve only conceded one goal in 520 minutes with that combination on the pitch (although Mertesacker did give away the pen at WBA). Things are better back there and we seen to be moving away from the having to score at least two goals to win every game mentality.

As United are now the Champions I don’t expect like many other that they’ll roll over on Sunday – why would they? They have no reason to rest players but the real issue is here is avenging the 8-2 humiliation from last season.

Now, if Podolski is fit he must play through the middle. However to get best value from Lukas, he would need a partner. Now Wenger rarely messes with his 4-3-3 or 4-3-2-1 formation, so here are some subtle changes, with enough fluidity to adapt during the game and to match situations.

Here is team two:

(GK) Wojciech Szczęsny: Again a toss up between the Polish internationals, you never know with Wenger.

(RB) Bacary Sagna: Not the player he was and seemingly unable to cross a ball anymore but for defensive solidity he gets the nod.

(LB) Kieron Gibbs: Delighted with the competition we now have with the arrival of Nacho but Gibbo all day. Would love him to have a stormer to erase the Champions League semifinal nightmare that must still keep him up at night. I suspect it will be Valencia he is up against and it will be a good duel.

(CB) Mertesacker and Koscielny: The pair have been in great form but the German must not be left one on one with the likes of Kagawa or Nani running at him or beyond him.

(RM) Tomas Rosicky: I would love to see Mozart reprising the role he occupied ahead of his injury in 07/08. He is fresh, full of energy and brings all the experience of his years to this fixture.

(LM) Santi Cazorla: This is the role he has been paying the last few weeks as he surely has not been playing left wing. He wants to be involved creatively and does not support the striker so this role will be perfect as it involves the parts of wide play he excels at and lessens the need for those he is not so strong on.

(CDM) Mikel Arteta: A captain’s performance required this weekend from our very own Lego head. Sit deep and don’t cross the half way line too often and use all your guile and wits.

(CM) Aaron Ramsey: Sorry Jack but you are not fit and right now Ramsey is in the form of his life. Rambo won this fixture for us in 2011 and the player on display now is a mature version without the flicks, back heels and stupid Hollywood balls.

(No. 10) Lukas Podolski: If ever a stage were set for the German this is it. If he is to come to the rescue it should be through the middle just off the main striker in the role he enjoyed with Klose so successfully for the Germany. He is our most accurate finisher and he can bring others into play as well with his vision and passing range.

(CF) Theo Walcott: Never thought I would say this but it was a close call with Gervinho. This is the Thierry Henry role Theo believes he was destined to play. He like Podolski is not necessarily a central striker in our usual formation but with freedom to use his electric pace off the last defender this is his stage.

Tactics

Whilst three v 2 in the centre of midfield can be useful I am not convinced in this match it will be as significant as Fergie tends to play 4-5-1 against us anyway. My selection has two sides to it in reality one offensive to enable us to create and score and the other defensive to thwart them.

I an reverting to the formation that brought us so much success but not entirely the tactics. For me the selection almost separates our attacking force and our defensive wall. We all know that pace at which United can turn defence into attack, particularly on the flanks so the full backs should just defend and not attack and overlap too often. Even Koscielny shouldn’t surge forward and we should send the CBs’ up only for set plays. This match is a match for the defenders to just defend and give the ball short and simple.

Lukas Podolski (center L) and Santi Cazorla (centre R) will have to be at their very best. (Getty Images)

As far as Mikel Arteta is concerned, the Spaniard should be disciplined and orchestrate from deep like Gilberto once did. As for Ramsey he should just carry on doing what he has been doing so well but at the same time be aware of his colleagues either sides and to be willing to switch with either wide player.

With regards to Santi and Mozart I would like to see the well-oiled fluidity of 06-08 return and for that we can think of Cazorla as Hleb. These guys are the creative forces and I would like to see them switch and interchange with Ramsey and each other as Hleb and Rosicky did with Cesc back then, save in the knowledge that the back 4 and Arteta are compact behind them. This role will get the best from Cazorla allowing him he creative freedom to punish United without the overwhelming need to get forward to support a sole striker from the wing. Rosicky can play this role with his eyes closed.

Podolski can drop deep and add numbers as Rooney will for United but he should also stay advanced and take the ball to feet early to allow him to turn the United centre-backs and use his distribution to unleash Walcott with a through ball or a ball to our wide to Santi of Rosicky. It is critical in this formation to utilise Theo’s pace. Podolski has to be the man to arrive in the area as the second striker. We all know this is the German’s preferred role so I hope he is fit enough to play it this weekend.

So due a rash tackle from Olivier Giroud, Arsenal, it seems, are likely to face the next 3 league matches without their main sole striker. This brings into sharp focus our alternatives, given the vital nature of the next few weeks for our Champions League aspirations. We have a set system Wenger seems unwilling to tinker with, and that system requires, in normal circumstances, a sole striker comfortable with his back to goal. A striker with the strength to hold the ball up and bring others into play, notably our 2 wide players and the central attacking midfielder.

This being the reality, there will be some serious soul searching going on at Colney this week because none of Podolski, Gervinho or Walcott are truly strikers in the same mould as our Marmite Frenchman. Wenger must decide whether to fit a round peg into the square hole left to be filled by Olivier’s absence or to tweak the system/tactics.

This however is not a blog in which I intend to second guess what ‘Le Boss’ may do, but more to consider what he might do with Lukas Podolski. This is however slightly complicated by the story that Podolski is carrying a minor ankle injury which will require surgery in the summer. Does this affect his mobility? It is hard to say as he looked exceptionally sharp against Norwich for 20 minutes, but strangely sluggish against Fulham. Many fans have surmised that it is the ankle problem which has caused Wenger not to start him in the EPL since January, whilst the press have decided he has fallen out with the German and aims to offload him at the first opportunity. Wenger has strongly denied there is a rift and has gone out of his way to issue statements via the club site to the contrary.

Whichever is the case, from in the pub before the games, in the ground and on social media, one thing is abundantly clear and that is that most fans want him to play a more active role, and I would contend that most recognise him as our most natural finisher. Indeed, I might go as far as to say that no one else in our squad would have scored the goal he scored against Norwich. I would go further and say that it never crossed my mind that he did not know exactly what he wanted to do when he received the ball and how he intended to do it.

So is the issue here simply that Wenger wants to persevere with Wilshere at CAM and has to move Santi to the left to accommodate him in that role? If so, I am against it as Jack is far better in my view as the box-to-box player. A role that Ramsey is playing particularly well at present. There is no doubt Santi has the creativity for the left wing position but he is reluctant to get close to the main striker, and become the second attacker in the box when the attacking play is coming from the right. I would personally prefer Santi back where he has played most of the season and let Jack and Aaron compete for the role just in advance of Arteta, leaving Lukas free to return on the left. None of this of course addresses Wenger’s new dilemma.

So the question is will Wenger do what he has threatened to do as recently as the 14th of April:

“Podolski was injured when we played at Bayern and won,” the boss said. “After that, we won at Swansea…sometimes you have periods like that and I think he can play as a central striker as well.

“I work a lot with him as a central striker at the moment. He is a quality player and when he comes on you can see that straight away. You don’t get 100 caps by luck.”

Now, I firmly of the opinion that Podolski can play up front on his own and the player himself has been quoted as saying that he wants to play more centrally. I am also acutely aware that many don’t share this view, citing his lack of ability to play with his back to goal and his lack of mobility. There is no question that he can run the channels well and he is far superior to Giroud at swivelling a defender and getting a shot away. I hate to raise it in an Arsenal blog, but many said earlier in the season that Defoe could not play as a sole striker due to his lack of strength and hold-up play. There is no question in my mind that he proved he could.

Podolski often played the sole striker role last season at Cologne, and many of his 18 league goals came when he was solo through the middle. So there is no doubt that he can do the same at Arsenal.

It was a cold winter afternoon at The Emirates, and the game between fierce north London rivals Arsenal and Tottenham was deadlocked at 81 minutes into the game. Arsene Wenger, not renowned for his bold substitutions, began to prepare one. The substitute’s name was Nicklas Bendtner, an 18 year old Danish centre-forward purchased from Copenhagen in 2004. He made his way on to the field, strode in to the box, leaped above Teemu Tainio like a salmon, and the resulting winner was written into Emirates folklore for the rest of our Arsenal supporting lives.

Now, the scene I have tried to set in the opening paragraph makes it seem like I was introducing someone who was going on to become young world player of the year. Unfortunately, I wasn’t. I’m introducing Nicklas Bendtner, a player who is now 25, and currently on loan at Italian champions Juventus. He’s failed to score in any of the 9 games he’s played in at present and in December, his season took an almighty blow as he got injured in a Serie A game against Calgari, and was ruled out for the rest of the season.

I’ve always thought Bendtner had a future at Arsenal. I often sense in football that fans have that certain player that they have a soft spot for, and for no particular reason either. However, apart from this weird obsession I have for the clumsy Dane, I do happen to think he’s a massively talented striker. He really started to blossom towards the end of the season in 2010, a fantastic header away at Stoke and goals in the dying seconds against Hull and Wolves respectively put Bendtner in the spotlight, showing everyone what he could do when given the responsibility, and more importantly, when under a lot of pressure. He ended up with a final tally of 12 goals for the 09/10 season, which for me is very impressive for a player who was never first choice, and very impressive for a player who was injured for three months of that season as well. Indeed, he only actually started 19 games in an Arsenal shirt that season with a further 10 appearances off the bench. He also weighed in with 6 assists. Ever since the end of that season, I have remained convinced that Bendtner is a valid contender to play ‘number 9’ Arsenal.

When Bendtner was a teenager, he was getting the odd ten minutes here and there, and rightly so. Robin van Persie, Emmanuel Adebayor, and Eduardo were three men he had to contend with at that point in time. But it’s the present in which I value his place in the Arsenal squad, when proper competition is scarce. Olivier Giroud is currently the first choice striker, and he’s a player that has divided opinion severely since his arrival. He has 17 goals and 10 assists in all competitions already. Most football fans, I feel, would look at those numbers and think they’re incredibly decent, considering it’s his first season in the division. But although his statistics are impressive, I’m one of many who sees Giroud as a very limited player. But why should he get a kicking from the fans if he’s all that we’ve got? When Bendtner was in the squad, he would get the odd start and often a substitute appearance because he was playing alongside strikers that were far better than him and provided much more for the team. Bendtner never received a considerable amount of abuse because he wasn’t in the spotlight as much, in my opinion. Unfortunately, Olivier is in the spotlight as he’s the only option we have, and he’s missing big chances in big games which is only fueling fans frustration as the season draws to a close.

I have never seen the harm in giving a player a second chance if they want to make it work for themselves. It has worked with Tevez at Man City, bridges that were once burnt have now been rebuilt and all is fine and dandy when he’s in the team creating chances and scoring the odd screamer. I would have no objection, as a fan, to giving Bendtner another chance to prove himself at Arsenal again and he hasn’t yet refused a return to North London:

”It’s difficult – I feel a lot of things for Arsenal, most good things. I left, not on bad terms but not on great terms,” Bendtner told Sky Sports.

Not only has Bendtner not ruled out a return, neither has Arsene Wenger. In an interview with The Daily Mirror in September 2012 Arsene was quoted saying the following things about Bendtner -

“I am convinced that at a team like Juventus, in a very difficult league, especially for strikers, he can make the final leap in quality.

“Don’t forget, he is a boy of 24 years. The right age to prove who he is.

“The talent is not missing; otherwise I would not have bought him from Copenhagen when he was just 16.”

We should also consider his international record which proudly shows 22 goals in 55 matches for Denmark. A goal ratio of 0.4 at international level is up there with the very best and he has scored many crucial goals taking his country to the last 2 major tournaments. However, he has been asked to take a break from playing for Denmark for 6 months following his drink-driving band to consider his future as an international footballer.

Putting all this evidence together and inserting my own opinion into the matter, I think Bendtner is due to return to Arsenal. He’s an enigma for sure, and there are attitude problems which need to be eradicated from his game, pronto. In my honest opinion though, I think he’s equally as capable as Giroud is, and can be called upon especially when forwards receive injuries and the team has to be rotated. Fans often complain about lack of rotation and/or lack of options. Well, we had one and decided to loan him out. To me having someone who’s scored 10 or more goals in a season twice in his career is a worthy option to when you’re so thin on the ground in the forward position. Let’s face it, he even managed 8 goals and 5 assists in 28 games for a struggling Sunderland side last season. I think Giroud is a good option, but he should not be THE option. Nicklas Bendtner isn’t going necessarily to turn us into title contenders, and he probably won’t score in a cup final either, but I’d see it as win-win situation for Bendtner to return in terms of squad depth and competition for places. If we get Jovetic, then it’ll be hard for Bendtner to return and make a huge impact, but with Arsene’s reluctance to spend big, is there any harm in doing so?

This is not an article bashing our ex hero for the sake of it, although it is not surprising we Gunners enjoy that indulgence. No, this is more a vindication possibly of a piece I wrote last summer when it became apparent our then talisman would depart. There has been much recrimination about the club’s decision to sell to a rival and this is natural because we sold what most fans believed to be a world class striker at the absolute pinnacle of his game and at the peak of his powers.

Well, you know what happens after you reach the pinnacle or peak? You go down the other side. And you know it takes a longer time to climb to the top of the mountain than to descend. In fact, on the down slope, the downward journey can, on occasion, be rapid. Enough of the clever analogies, I will get straight to the point.

The article I wrote last July revealed that of the 20 strikers who had scored 20 or more league goals (and there were only 20) in the previous 2011/12 season, from Europe’s 6 big leagues, only 4 were 30 or over. If you are interested, they were Ibrahimovic, Di Natale, Milito and Nene. Only 2 of these look likely to repeat the feat this season. Now, we can all make statistics sing the tune we wish, but they were the facts. The chances were that RVP would, like so many others in the modern game, find goals harder to score in his 30s.

When I wrote a piece recently asking why players can’t seemingly play as many games in the Premier League era as they did previously, I was told that the pace of the game is more exacting, pitches firmer, etc. Indeed, the better playing surfaces make for more pleasing on the eye football, but they are harder on the modern player’s body. Wear and tear kicks in earlier and RVP has had his share.

The facts and the truth in the case of RVP were sort of blanked out at the end of the last season by Gooners when he was our player. The reality was that, in March, we all felt the breaking of Shearer’s EPL scoring record was a formality. With 10 matches left, RVP needed 8 goals and such was his form that we all thought he would make it. Arsenal’s form from February and March faltered in April and May and it coincided with our talisman failing to score in 6 of the last 10 matches. Of the 4 he did score, the only one in a winning cause was a penalty versus already relegated Wolves and none were decisive strikes. As I say, this dramatic decline in form and influence was missed or ignored by most in the euphoria of grabbing 3rd from Tottenham on the last day at the Hawthorns. The truth is that had RVP been scoring still, it would not have gone to the last day and should not have.

Did Wenger have the feeling that Robin in his 30th year was unlikely to hit the same heights? Was £25 million too good to turn down? Now, to whom we sold him to is an entirely different discussion and I will not defend that call, but is there evidence that van Persie’s star is fading?

At first glance, it is easy to conclude that he is as potent as ever with 20 goals in the Premier League. However, only 5 of the 20 have come against the teams competing now for the top 6 places and he has not scored in the league for over 2 months until yesterday. The last time our greying Dutch friend hit the net in anger in the Premiership was on the 10th of February, until Sunday when he scored a penalty against Stoke. We all saw the relief in his celebration. He knew he needed a goal.

Anyway, I am not intending to use only Van Persie himself for my research or to prove my point. I don’t need to as there really is emphatic and overwhelming evidence from the modern Premier League era to suggest dear RVP is unlikely to regain the form that took him to the peak of his individual attainment in 2011/12 with 2 Player of the Year awards. I am sure you might doubt this to be the case but here goes:

Ian Rush – He is one of the greatest goal scorers in history of the modern game. Scored 26 in 1989/90 to nick title back from Arsenal in his 29th year and never came close to doing so again. His best league return after that was aged 31 in the first Premiership season when he hit 22 but only 14 in the EPL.

Andy Cole – The 2nd top scorer in EPL history hit 24 in his 29th year to assist Man Utd win the treble in 98/99 and 22 the year after, in his 29th year. He never scored more than 13 in a season after that.

Alan Shearer – Fares better than some but he hit 30 goals in his 29th year and never did so thereafter. The greatest scorer in the league’s history did continue to score but he never reached the heights he had prior to his 30th birthday.

Jimmy Floyd Hasslebank – The league’s top scorer in 2000/1 in his 28thth year and hit 26 goals for Chelsea in all competitions. He was pipped by Henry in 2001/02 in his 29th year when the Frenchman hit 29 that season. His highest total from then on was 17.

Thierry Henry – Our greatest ever hit 33 in his 29th year in 2005/6 and never looked like hitting his Highbury heights after that last year at the Home of Football. He only managed over 20 once at Barca.

Ruud van Nistlerooy – The Dutchman and Henry were great rivals for the Golden Boot in the early 2000s. The Dutchman left Man Utd and hit 33 for Real Madrid in his 30th year, having scored 24 times as a parting gift to the Old Trafford faithful in his 29th year. He dropped to 20 goals in his 31st year and has not troubled the statisticians since.

Nic Anelka – The ex- Gooner topped the EPL scoring charts in 2008/9 with 19 goals in his 29th year. He hit 25 in all competitions for Chelsea. He followed this with poor returns of 15 and 16 in his 30th and 31styear.

Didier Drogba – The Ivorian slightly bucks the trend by having his finest season in his 31st year scoring a very impressive 37 goals in 2009/10, taking Chelsea to the title and topping the EPL Goal Chart with 29. In the next 2 seasons, he managed 13 and 13!

I will leave the most pertinent until last.

Dimitar Berbatov – The Bulgarian, who was bought for big money by Sir Alex Ferguson, helped them to the title in 2010/11 when in his 29th year, Berba hit 20 league goals. He finished as the league top scorer but was dropped by the ruthless Scot for the title run in, with the younger legs of Hernandez being preferred. After a season mostly on the bench, he is playing again for Fulham. But despite the plaudits, he is playing every week and has 13 goals to date in 2012/13.

Why is the last example so relevant, if it has not grabbed you yet? Well, because, it illustrates the point that Ferguson and United, rightly or wrongly, are willing to splash huge cash get a quick return in silverware and then discard and make a huge loss on the investment. It would not surprise me to see RVP rotated increasingly next season in favour of Hernandez and Welbeck, assuming they don’t move for Falcao that is.

Just in case the above does not convince you that top strikers rarely continue performing into their 30s, we could just quickly assess the strikers currently at the top of their game around Europe. Here are the current top 5’s from each major league:

France – Ibrahimovich, Aubaneyang, Aliadiare, Cvtanich, Gomis

Germany – Lewandowski, Keisling, Mandzukic, Meier, Szalai

Holland – Bony, Finnbogason, Pelle, Altidore, Malki

Italy – Cavani, Di Natale, El Sharaaway, Denis, Pazzini

Spain – Messi, Ronaldo, Falcao, Negredo, Castro

England – Suarez, RVP, Bale, Michu, Ba

(those players over 30 are in bold type)

So we have compelling evidence to suggest that the likelihood of van Perise’s career taking an upturn in 2013/14 are slim. Of the 30 players making up the top 5’s in Europe’s top leagues, presently only 4 of the 30 strikers are over 30.

As we have seen above, only Didier Drogba of all the Premier League’s top strikers over the past 20 years had bucked the trend and peaked beyond 30.

My guess is that RVP, like Berbatov before him, will play less of a role next season at Old Trafford or be moved back slightly. I do not see him leading the line with the same devastating effect as he did when he was 27 to 29, and the odds are in my favour. Another possibility is that we may see our former idol drop deeper as Bergkamp or Sheringham did, but will we see him hit close to 30 or over again? History and compelling evidence says it is exceedingly unlikely.

Time will tell and I cannot deny the first 5 months of the season were painful to watch from a Gooner’s perspective. However, what I do know with some certainly is that Podolski, Girouid and Walcott will be 28, 27 and 25 next season and all records suggest they still have their prime ahead of them. All have hit double figures with ease in 2012/13 and it is hard to argue against a further improvement next term, possibly assisted by a new striker to be signed in the summer. Only this week, Wenger has been talking of coaching Lukas to play more centrally. If this is our future, then 2013/14 could be the German’s year to hit the peak in scoring form.

Chances are, my friends, that we are approaching the peak of our form mountain whilst our erstwhile skipper will be beginning his slide down the slippery career slope, possibly assisted by a ruthless red nosed Scot we all love to hate.

A quiet week for Arsenal, so only a short blog from me inspired by events elsewhere, which we can only watch with envy. Yes, the Champions League quarterfinals play themselves out without Arsenal again, and indeed without any Premier League interest. The Champions League odds are tight and it would appear that Barcelona are marginally favourites over Madrid. We had an all English affair in Moscow a few years back and it could well be an all Spanish affair if the experts are correct.

Arsenal should be there. We had an easy group and we messed up, finishing second and getting a tough draw versus Bayern Munich was unnecessary. The result is that yet again, Arsenal have not made the quarterfinals. Surely, any top side with European aspirations should be regularly making the last 8 in Europe? This must be crucial to be seen to be competing regularly at the top table because just playing in the early stages of the Champions League means nothing. If you were a top player considering a move to the Premiership, would this not be a major factor?

I would forgive you is at this stage you are thinking this is about to be a negative piece, but actually you could not be more wrong. I do not think finishing 4th is a trophy, and will never place that over silverware. I will however acknowledge our achievements on the main European stage. Coming out of the group for 16 consecutive years is impressive but I am thinking more of actually making an impression in the competition.

The quarterfinals is the business end for me. To be in the last 8 standing is a big deal and to do it regularly has to be a benchmark of success on some level. The research I undertook as a result proved interesting and enlightening. It was sort of influenced by me thinking about what factors a top player considering a move to Arsenal over another side in the Champions League would take into account? I mean, there is playing in the Champions League and there is competing in the Champions League. Most players, I assume, would want to go some distance and pit their wits against the best. On that basis, and if this is a major factor, is the Emirates an attractive destination?

So who are the giants on the Champions League stage year in year out? I have chosen the last 10 competitions as a fair and valid sample. A long enough period from which to garner some meaningful results I am sure you would agree. However also encompassing 8 years in which Arsenal have won nothing, so I cannot be accused of fixing the research. I have simply looked at which clubs have made the last 8 from 2004 our glory year until 2013. A 10 year period in which by all our standards Arsenal have under achieved in the main, whilst building a new stadium and operating under the financial constraints of paying for it. The results may surprise you:

Now, if you’re honest, that probably surprised you all. It certainly surprised me that only 4 sides have reached the business end of the Champions League more times than Wenger’s Arsenal in the past 10 seasons. Only Barcelona and Chelsea with 7 quarterfinal appearances and Milan and Bayern with 6 have reached more than Arsenal.

Now, I am not suggesting this is an unqualified success story. My regular readers are aware of my views when it comes to under achievement in the domestic cups of late but to have been able to compete with some regularity in a difficult period financially in Europe’s top competition is impressive. Nor are our 5 quarter appearances clustered together in the early part of the survey period. We have reached the last 8 in 2004, 2006 where of course we reached the final in Paris, but also in 2008, 2009 and 2010 after leaving Highbury.

To sit behind only Barca, Milan, Chelsea and Munich given our circumstances can be seen as success on one level. Although not the real tangible success we all crave. However given the story the club will be selling this summer to potential signings I think the pedigree in Europe becomes increasingly relevant. It comes back to the overused cliché of buying into a project. I am certain that the financial constraints are less this close season and the financial muscle promised us when the club left Highbury might actually be flexed a tad!

So the message for the top targets this summer, assuming Champions League football is secured is this: We have competed in the latter stages of the Champions League every year in the knockout stages and we have reached the quarters 5 of the last 10 years. Indeed we have reached the last 8 in 3 of the last 6 seasons and on each occasion with one hand tied behind our back. Well, now both hands are free, we have the gloves on and are ready to punch our full heavy weight.

A few years ago, in another time and on another site, I wrote a blog about the Premier League’s greatest goal makers, inspired at the time by a list of the top 20 assist makers in the first 19 years of the league posted by a tabloid radio station. Why? Because it is not just the number of assists which tells the real story, because if you have played in midfield in a top side for years, you will clock up assists by default. Yes Lampard, Gerrard and Scholes, I am talking about you guys. No, it is the ratio of assists to matches which should be the true measure of greatness. I am not, I might add, questioning Lampard’s goal ratio by any means.

It has to be the ratio of assists to matches that identifies the true creative geniuses of the modern game. It will surprise no one that David Beckham departed these shores with an incredible number of assists and no one has a better ratio at 0.57 assist per match. However, I am delighted to report that Thierry Henry and Cesc Fabregas have similar incredible ratios. Both players creating goals for their team mates at the rate of 0.56% per game. Cesc Fabregas sits just outside the top 10 with 119 assists, and of course, there is some speculation that he might return to the EPL and further enhance his figures!! I take my hat off to Henry though. To create so much for Arsenal team-mates while shattering all goal scoring records simultaneously. One would be hard to argue against TH14 being the greatest player of the Premier League era, although many Gooners I know might debate that and suggest a certain Dutchman.

The next best ratios come from that genius, Dennis Bergkamp (0.46) and not surprisingly Ryan Giggs (0.45), but in reality, the 5 we have mentioned, 2 Man United legends (painful to say but true), and our own 3 greats are miles ahead of any other ‘so called’ modern greats. Lampard and Gerrard have ratios of 0.30 and 0.32 and even Andy Cole had a better goal creativity record than the player who many describe as the league’s greatest… Paul ‘oh please retire you are embarrassing’ Scholes. The red-headed dynamo that never learned to tackle has a ratio of 0.27 which might surprise many, but not me. (Pathetic.)

Just to put these pathetic stats into some context for you, the most frustrating Russian in the EPL, yes our very own Andrei Arshavin, has a 35% ratio with 35 assists in 105 matches. Before the last 2 seasons, he had 40% with 32 assist in 79 matches. When I wrote on this in the summer of 2011, Nasri was looking to leave and his ratio stood at 18% and that for a player who wanted to be our creative hub? Not surprisingly, he has never been given the central role he coveted at City and still only has 35 assist in 141 Premiership games. No wonder Mancini never quite builds the side around him. As an interesting aside, Santi Cazorla, effectively a season apart Nasri’s replacement, has a hugely impressive 14 in 35 EPL appearances, a 0.4% ratio.

Now, we don’t know if our diminutive Spaniard will continue at the same rate, but there is an argument to say he will only improve in the second season as many imports to the EPL do. What I can tell you is that there are only 9 players in the history of the Premier League with a ratio of assisting higher than Santi’s 0.4%. One of them, by the way, is a current Premier League Manager.

Pretty interesting so far, but here are the facts below courtesy of premiersoccerstats.com, so feel free to draw your own conclusions and observations and I will make a few myself. This is the top 10 since 1992 and Cesc sits just outside at 12.

In some way, it is depressing as an Arsenal fan today to be reminded just how special Henry, Bergkamp and Fabregas were. Worse still that they all played together at one point. So if you are sitting comfortably or slumped in your chair, I am going to make it worse now:

If we take 100 assists in the EPL as a significant contribution, how quickly did the giants of the league reach that landmark?

Still with me? 3 of the fastest 5 in the history of the EPL to reach 100 assist for team mates did it for our club. More depressed?

Who then managed to reach this landmark at the youngest age?

Well know there’s a surprise!

So let me pull this together from my own perspective and give it some relevance for today.

Cesc Fabregas loves Arsenal, even if he loves his home town club slightly more.

Cesc Fabregas, I would suggest, probably loves Arsenal more than a few players who play for us now.

Cesc Fabregas is one of only 3 players to have created goals at a rate of better than one every other match, along with Beckham and Henry.

Cesc Fabregas was the youngest player in the history of the EPL to reach 100 assists.

Cesc Fabregas was the 3rd fastest player to reach 100 assists after only Beckham and Henry.

Now I am not going to get into the debate about whether he went on strike in 2010/11 or if he was injured, because unlike so many on social media who seen to know, I do not. All I will say is that, if at any point there is a chance we could sign Cesc Fabregas back, as certain tabloids have rumoured we just might, at least this one Gooner will be happy. Whether it is this summer or in the next few seasons.

I gather many fans have decided he has wronged the club and would not welcome the return of the prodigal son, and I would ask you to read the above again and think again.

Sol Campbell lied to Wenger when he entered the last year of his contract, declining to sign an extension as he wanted to play abroad. Of course, Sol had form for this, as we all know, but as Wenger later commented, the last time he checked Portsmouth, it was still in the UK! I only add this as no one seemed to objected when Campbell returned to the club.

Just a few home truths and interesting facts thrown in with my personal feelings, but hey, it’s my blog. Shoot me down!

So as we reach the end of the International break and before we get back into the rigors of the Premiership and the chase for Champions League places. I have my Arsenal match tickets for the run in but I wanted first to just bring you all up to speed on one of my favourite subjects, which may of you have been asking for an update on. Yes readers for the 3rd time since my blog launched it is ‘Super Joel Campbell’ update time.

In June 2012 I wrote a blog entitled ‘Super Campbell Work permit now a formality, Exclusive’ and made a fool of myself by not researching thoroughly enjoy.  I had calculated that Campbell had played enough competitive games by last summer to gain a work permit. This was primarily due to the fact that Costa Rica has not had too many competitive fixtures in 2010. Sadly however I missed 4 fixtures Costa Rica plated in the UNCAF Nations Cup in the January of 2011 which had not for some reason appeared on the FIFA site and Joel had played in these having not at that point made his international debut.

I have followed Joel closely in France and Spain since he signed for Arsenal in August 2011 and I am of the view that he is now ready to come back to his parent club Arsenal this summer and play a role in 2013/14.

First of all let’s examine the criteria set down for footballers for the granting of International work permits

Work permits will be issued to international players of the highest calibre who are able to make a significant contribution in footballing terms to the development of the United Kingdom game at the highest level (i.e. clubs competing in the Premier Leagues and Football Leagues in England and Scotland, the Welsh Premier League and the Irish Premier League in Northern Ireland).

Initial applications

To be eligible for a work permit:

• a player must have played for his country in at least 75% of its competitive ’A’ team matches he was available for selection, during the two years preceding the date of the application; and
• The player’s country must be at or above 70th place in the official FIFA world rankings when averaged over the two years preceding the date of the application.

Competitive matches

The definition of a competitive ‘A’ team international match is a:

• World Cup Finals game;
• World Cup Qualifying group game; and
• Football Association confederation tournament game, for example:
  • The FIFA Confederations Cup;
  • The UEFA European Championships and Qualifiers;
  • The African Cup of Nations and Qualifiers;
  • The Asia Nations Cup and Qualifiers;
  • The CONCACAF Gold Cup;
  • The CONCACAF The Copa Caribe;
  • The CONMEBOL Copa America;
  • The OFC Nations Cup and
  • The UNCAF Nations Cup

I have emboldened the competitions in which Costa Rica could conceivably compete.

This of course has to be evidenced by the applying club as detailed below:

International appearances

Prior to submitting an application, clubs should provide written confirmation of the player’s international appearance record over the preceding two years highlighting the competitive ‘A’ matches. This should be obtained from the player’s home association. The sports and entertainments team, UK Border Agency, will be unable to make a decision on the application until written evidence is provided. If any evidence submitted needs verifying, the sports and entertainments team, UK Border Agency, will liaise with other parties and verify all information through all available sources, if necessary.

So first and foremost we need to update the exact position on Joel Campbell as the end of his current loan contract with Real Betis will be almost exactly 2 years from his international debut for Coast Rica on the 5^th June 2011. Campbell has 22 full caps now and 7 goals for his country and is still 3 months short of his 21^st birthday but as we have established the key is which of his caps were in Competitive A games.

So what does the above mean for Campbell?

Well in short since his international debut Joel Campbell has played in 14 of the 16 competitive games Costa Rica have played. This for the mathematicians among you equated to 87.5% of the games. So provided Costa Rica are in the top 70 in the Fifa World rankings should Arsenal apply for a permit when Joel completes his loan on the 30^th June it will be granted. Costa Rica, with Campbell’s help have climbed ten or so places in the rankings and are currently the 53^rd ranked team.

To ensure completion we should consider futures competitive internationals for Costa Rica between now and the end of his Betis loan in June. Costa Rica will play 3 World Cup qualifiers in June in an 11 day period. These are Honduras at home on the 7^th, Mexico away on the 11^th and finally Panama at home on the 18^th. In short we need Joel to play in only one of the games to stay above the 75%. Indeed is he plays in all 3 as seems likely the first 3 games from June 2011 will fall out of the calculation, one of which he did not feature in and he would move to 15/16 from 18^th June 2011 to 18^th June 2013. Bottom line is that it truly is now a formality.

Joel Campbell is a player whose stats don’t tell the full story on how influential he can be throughout a game. Campbell is a constant thorn in the opposition’s half; whether he’s chasing 40-yard balls down, drawing free-kicks or looking to interchange with Ruben Castro – Betis’ usual centre-forward. Campbell is usually deployed on either flank as a winger or wide-midfielder. The Betis fans have warmed to him because of his positive mentality on the pitch and his quiet nature off it. Of course, there are slight problems with his overall game, especially his final ball.

Campbell would be a brilliant asset for Arsenal, should he be granted a work permit in the summer. With many saying that Arsenal should play a 4-4-2 or a 4-4-1-1, Campbell would thrive from this formation. We shouldn’t accommodate a young player by adjusting our whole system, but with the possible inclusion of someone like Jovetic in the summer, who can play in the hole, the 4-4-1-1 seems a possible tactical option for Wenger. Campbell would play as the wide-midfielder, and he’d give his full-back a lot of defensive support. His ball retention and tackling makes me think he isn’t cut out to be your everyday out-and-out striker; he offers a lot more to the general play in a wider position. Although having said that, his versatility could come in handy. Should Arsenal be thin on the centre-forward front I have no doubt Joel could fill in. I don’t think Campbell should be loaned out again next season, although many seem to believe otherwise. He could prove to be a very vital and versatile player to have off the bench if we need a goal or need to hang on to a narrow lead. He could learn a lot from finally being at his prestigious parent club (not a dig at Lorient or Betis in the slightest). If we offload Bendtner, Park and Chamakh then Campbell should definitely be kept as a squad player. If we don’t, then I’m sure we’ll see him move out on loan to a premier league club. 

Thanks Chris, great to have a view from someone who has watched Joel all season. From what I have seen I tend to agree. He plays predominantly for Betis in the wide right role primarily occupied by Walcott for Arsenal. His final pass/decision making I would  suggest is where Theo’s was at the same age 3 years back but he certainly has far more discipline than Theo did at 20/21. His defensive work and fitness are superb and I would certainly rank him higher than Oxlade-Chamberlain or Walcott in that department. The success Betis have enjoyed this season has not been down to their prolific scoring but more down to a superb defensive record, against all barring the very top sides, and the whole team including Joel can take huge credit for that. Campbell’s work rate and fitness are fabulous but please don’t think he will not be asset in attack. He has a freer role for Costa Rica and plays more centrally and has a healthy return of about 1 in 3 at full international level. 7 in 22 is none to0 shabby for a young talent not yet 21.

Much was made a few weeks ago about Joel wishing to stay at Betis for European football and how he felt at home there. There has also been quotes from the Betis coach Pepe Mel about wishing to retain Joel’s services for another year.  However it was this quote from Joel that obviously made the bash Arsenal headlines:

“I feel very comfortable and have identified with the team and people of Betis. I love the city, and if I have to stay I am available. Hopefully we will be in Europe too.”

The following line from the quote did not make the headline:

He continued: “I do not deny that I would love to show what I have in a team like Arsenal.”

Regardless of what Mel, Betis or the press say or think this one is down to one man. Arsene, it’s over to you…

It’s been too long since I last wrote anything and this one maybe of interest to anyone that follows me on Twitter who also looks out for my regular Arsenal Bet of The Day. I post a bet on the day of each Arsenal game and since the start of the season anyone following the bets would be £210 up for a £10 stake. Firstly, seeing as it’s getting to the business end of the season, I thought I’d look at some odds regarding the big issues. Looking at the relegation battle and our old “friend” ‘Arry whose odds on QPR falling through the PL trapdoor are a best priced 2-9, this despite being below Reading in the table who are 1-16 to go down. It’s quite tight down at the bottom and although Wigan have form at escaping relegation, you can get 11-10 on them being a Championship side next season. Personally speaking, I think one of Villa (2-1) or Southampton (a decent priced 8-1) will be claiming their parachute payments next season. I know Dave would quite fancy the Saints to go down so Arsenal can pick up Morgan Schneiderlin. Of course, until they reach the often fabled 40 points, no one can assume they are safe. Sunderland 7-2 right through to Fulham 150-1 are the odds between the clubs caught up in the fight to stay up.

Next let’s look at the best odds for clubs finishing in the Top Four. Man Utd have won the title so that offers no value at 1-250 , meaning you would win a whole £1 if you staked £250 on the Old Trafford outfit adding to their Title Wins. So taking Man United out of the equation where do we stand?

The odds on Man City gaining a Top four finish are 1-200 which again offers little value. Even Chelski at 1-6 is not exactly going to make anyone rich. It is hard to argue with the experts given that City are already 9 points clear of 5^th place and Chelsea are 5 points adrift. It is fair to assume therefore that the bookies see there only being one Champions league spot up for grabs. Currently in pole position are Tottenham who, since beating Arsenal however, have gone on their customary end of season blow-up having lost heavily to Inter Milan, losing at Liverpool and being beat by Fulham at home. Tottenham are best priced even money to gain a top four finish. They have a tough run of games over the next month whilst Arsenal on paper at least look to have the easier run in, with the exception of hosting the Champions elect at the Emirates. At present, the experts have Spurs just slightly favoured over Arsenal but it is marginal. Surprisingly, although they only lie 2 points behind Arsenal, and have just beaten Manchester City, the bookies completely discounted Everton. You can get between 9 and 12 to 1 for the Toffees to break into the top 4. Interestingly Everton at home is Arsenal’s game in hand over their North London rivals. A win for the Gunners over Moyes’ boys could see Arsenal finish Merseyside hopes and really begin breathing down Tottenham’s necks.

So if the bookies are correct and it is a straight 2 team North London race, let’s have a look at the 2 sets of fixtures and maybe try to predict the results to see if those bookies have gotten it right or wrong.

Spuds

Swansea Away

Difficult trip, Swansea’s a difficult place to go BUT their form since winning the cup has gone off the boil. Then again they won’t want to be losing two home games on the spin.

Let’s say 1-1 draw: 1pt

Everton Home

Everton could, if results go their way (beat Stoke at home & if Spuds lose to Swansea), actually draw level on 54 points if they beat Spuds. I can see another tight game here seeing as it’s sandwiched between Spurs’ QF ties against FC Basel.

Another draw 2-2: 1pt

Chelsea Away

The run of games does not get any easier for Tottenham and I can’t see anything other than a Chelsea victory here.

Chelski win 3-1: 0 points

Man City Home

Just when Tottenham fans think it can’t get any worse, the reigning PL champions come rolling into town. The game will be another tight affair.

Draw- 2-2: 1point

Wigan Away

This is the start of a run of fixtures against clubs that whilst look easy on paper are actually teams fighting for their very survival. Wigan usually find form at this time of the season and will have enough to dent the Spurs’ CL ambitions here.

Wigan to win 2-1: 0 points

Southampton Home

Although Saints are another team fighting for their lives, I see Tottenham having too much for them on this occasion.

Spurs win 3-0: 3 points

Stoke Away

Next up is a trip to the always welcoming Stoke City and their marvellous simian supporters whom I am sure will welcome the visit of Gareth Bale like a long lost brother. Sadly, Stoke have been pretty dire since turn of the year and I can’t see anything other than a Spurs win here.

Spurs win 2-0: 3 points

Sunderland Home

Depending on how the battle at the bottom goes this could either be a gimme or a real battle. Either way I can’t see past Tottenham

Spurs win 2-1: 3 points

This run of predicted results would give Tottenham 66 points and a GD of +17

Now let’s focus the crystal ball on Arsenals run in-

Reading Home

Even the most optimistic Royals fan would struggle to see anything other than a Home win here.

Arsenal win 4-1: 3 points

WBA away

A tricky fixture but not one Arsenal are beyond winning. However I see WBA being more of a handful than last season’s final fixture and we can’t rely on another keeper throwing goals in here. Lukaku seems to be hitting some form too.

2-2 draw: 1 point

Norwich Home

I would hope Arsenal learned their lessons of treating clubs like Norwich lightly and put in a good performance here against a side that should be all but safe.

Arsenal win 2-0: 3 Points

Everton Home

Tricky match here and one that will be a very tight affair, particularly if Everton are still in the  hunt for 4th themselves.

Arsenal draw 1-1: 1 point

Fulham away

Another potentially difficult London Derby for Arsenal against a team whom have just beat Tottenham away. A lot will depend on keeping Berbatov quiet.

Arsenal draw 1-1: 1 point

Man Utd- Home

This could be a very bad day as United could in theory wrap up the title here. The sight of Van Persie celebrating this could make for a very ugly atmosphere, you just know deep down he will open the scoring too. Taking off the Arsenal tinted glasses and I can’t see past a Man United win.

Utd win 3-1: 0 points

QPR Away

By the time Arsenal roll into Loftus Road, QPR could be dead and buried. I can’t see past an Arsenal win here to get CL fight back on track.

Arsenal win 2-0: 3 points

Wigan Home

As stated previously Wigan usually come into form this time of year, a hard earned nervy draw here I fear.

Arsenal draw 2-2: 1 Point

Newcastle Away

Newcastle away from home in their last fixture of the season brings parallels with having to go to another team with Barcode shirts last year. The game will be open with plenty of goals.

Arsenal win 3-2: 3 points

This would give Arsenal a total of 66 points and a GD of +29

This would see Arsenal taking the CL spot from Tottenham by a greater GD.

Nervy times are ahead as I think anyone will see and no wonder the bookies can’t really split the two clubs.

Goal celebration seen once every 3 weeks?

In fact, this article is, I hope, more about exploding the myth of the ease of Arsenal picking up such a prolific player who scores at the rate I see demanded frequently on our social media. Do 30 goals a season players exist? Yes they do, but the reality is they are a very rare breed, particularly if we are talking about league goals, our bread and butter. So, let’s start at home and stick to the modern era. How many times have Arsenal strikers’ hit 30 league goals in the first 20 years of the Premier League? 6 times, 8 times, 10 times? No, twice is all. Thierry Henry did it once in 2004 and van Persie in 2012. Okay, well, 30 is a superb effort, but 20 goals a season in the league is easy and happens all the time, right? Well, actually, at a club that has been blessed with likes of Henry, Wright, Bergkamp, Anelka, Adebayor and van Persie, we have produced a 20 league goal striker in less than 50% of the 20 seasons. In fact, only on 9 occasions have we had a 20 goal a season man, and make that 9 from 21, as it is not happening this season either. Henry managed 20 in the Premier League in 5 seasons from 8, Ian Wright only twice, Adebayor once and RVP once. Ian Wright, one of the best finishers ever, only scored 20 in the EPL twice in 6 attempts. Dennis Bergkamp’s best ever return was 18. This is not, incidentally, a criticism of Jovetic, who looks a super player, but he is a creator of opportunities or a second striker, a la Dennis, not a main striker. Of course, this whole debate is far from simple as I would love us to have a two striker system and see a Jovetic style No.10. But we do not presently have that system, and this article is more about the constant Gooner demand for a 20/30 goal a season central striker. The majority seem to think Wenger’s task here is an easy one, and his failure is down to lack of funds or lack of judgement.

So, we have established that 20 a season is not as common as people perhaps thought, and Arsenal have been at or near the pinnacle of the league in a huge majority of those seasons. However, am I sure we can sign a 20 goal a season striker this summer from Europe? Well, maybe we can, but again I am sorry to shatter the illusion. They don’t truly exist in numbers, and those that do, may not be in Arsenal’s price range or be suitable. In 2011/12, there were only 20 strikers in the 6 main European Leagues who scored 20 league goals, and Olivier Giroud was one of them. That was a year back, so let’s look at this season. I am going to be fair and suggest that with 75% of the season gone, any striker who is on course to be a 20 a season man in their league should be on 15 as of today.

Interesting stuff, I think. 21 players in top 6 European leagues are on target to hit 20 or more goals in their respective leagues. Realistically, for those seeking a ready made RVP replacement perhaps, you don’t see Wenger’s job as being quite so straight forward? Just from a personal perspective, I have highlighted those who interest me and who I think we could realistically sign.

In addition, just to muddy the waters further and try and convince you just how hard the manager’s job is, I would like to add some further context. Some context to demonstrate, perhaps, the different strengths of the various European leagues. Again, I am not making suggestions or judgement, but trying to illustrate the inexact science of making transfer decisions and scouting in different leagues. When looking at the statistics across Europe this season, it is hard to do the research without seeing two familiar names jump off the screen. In France, having had another injury disrupted season last year, Jeremie Aliadiare has been mighty impressive for Lorient this term. The former Gunner and Invincible has not only notched 11 goals in Ligue 1 but also provided 8 assists, which ranks him 5th and 2nd in those charts. No, I am not suggesting Wenger resign JA, but there are many jumping on the idea of signing Pierre Aubameyang from St Etienne, who has only marginally better stats than Aliadiare and nowhere near as strong as those of Olivier Giroud in the same division last season. The reality is that our Frenchman has notched a goal every 3 games in the league, and has only actually started in 19 of the 28. Perspective perhaps, or perhaps not?

Was it folly to sign Oliie?

Vela, clever fella? When looking at Spain, it is hard not to see young ex-Gunner Carlos Vela’s stats as they feature high up the charts as well. Having struggled, or not having made an impression fully in the EPL, in his second full season at Sociedad the Mexican international has come of age. He has 12 goals from a wide striker role, putting him 8th in La Liga and has a superb 9 assists, leaving him behind only Iniesta, Fabregas, Ozil and Messi.

So, there you go. The above proves just how tricky it is for Wenger and his scouts these days to decide if form in one league will transfer to the EPL. Of course, you can be guided, I assume, by precedents. Guys who have scored consistently in Holland have done well in the main in England, Suarez being the most recent case in point. Big strong centre forwards, and indeed strong athletic players, from the Ivory Coast had thrived in the EPL, and in Drogba, have produced one of the league’s all time greats. Now I am not going to go down the “if only Wenger had signed Drogba when he had the chance” road, but it may be worth looking at the new DD if we feel Lukaku cannot be prised from Chelsea. Wilfred Bony is the man to replace Drogba in the national side. He already had 6 caps, scored 15 in 19 for Vitesse last season, and has 26 in 20 this term. This powerhouse will finish the season with 30 league goals and perhaps 40 in all competitions. In the words of my Dutch correspondent, Austin Ellinor, @Frimponged “He is terrorising defences in the Eredivisie!”

A a second Dutch Gooner, Willem Gonggrijp @BergkampFlick is not so sure: “He has at least 1 or 2 seconds more to make a decision in the Eredivisie. He is very strong and a good finisher with both head and feet, but it’s hard to judge a striker in the Eredivisie. I wouldn’t take the risk.”

Last word to a third Dutch Gooner/blogger, Martijn Stolze @Hahostolze. I asked him this “Wilfred Bony”, worth a punt, and his answer was short and to the point. “Yes. I’d say so.”

Bony the Beast – New Drogba?

Bony is being strongly linked with Liverpool at the moment, but as Wenger was keen on Lukaku 2 summers back, it is not outlandish to suggest this similar style of striker would not be on his radar.

Anyway that is enough for today. I guess my message is we all want the 20 plus goal a season striker to lead us back to glory. The earlier table suggests that only 21 or so will manage 20 in the league in Europe’s top 6 leagues, and many of those are unattainable, too old for Wenger or would not come to Arsenal. The water to fish in for Arsenal is a pool and not a lake, and they are not too many truly big fish in it. I have no idea what we will do in the summer, but the thought of this beast Wilfred Bony turning up elsewhere in the EPL I do find a worry. I have asked the Dutch Gooners I know on Twitter, and the verdict is a split jury. You can decide, but for me, he has 2 years on his contract, can be signed for circa £10/£12 million, and has 33 goals for club and country this season alone, so I would not be averse.

Despite the disappointment of exiting the Champions League at the Allianz Arena on Wednesday of last week, the 0-2 win actually had more of an effect on the Arsenal team for the remaining games of the season than perhaps supporters realise or are prepared to accept. Let’s not underestimate that Bayern are supposedly the ‘best’ team in Europe at present with a huge 20 point lead at the top of the Bundesligia. They had the stuffing knocked out of them in their own back yard! Personally, I still feel Barcelona are at the forefront despite their own wavering and are a team you cannot right off at any cost, perhaps along with Real Madrid. Bayern best team in Europe – maybe in time, when Pep Guardiola takes over the helm.

Arsenal went into the game with Bayern Munich, low on confidence having lost their previous game to arch rivals Tottenham, and as well as being annihilated at the Emirates by Bayern in the home leg of the Champions League tie. I was there, and like most, if not every Arsenal supporter, witnessed a very poor night for our team! So, with a victory that should not be underestimated, Arsenal had their pride restored – sort of!

With an enforced break upon us due to World Cup qualifiers, it was essential that the trip last Saturday to Swansea was a must win game. You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to work that one out!

Kick up the Arse!

As I continually say, no matter whether you are an “In Arsène we trust” or a “Wenger Out” supporter, it would a very foolish person to either underestimate or write Wenger off completely! No matter what supporters think or want, he is not going anywhere pre-summer, so we just have to get behind him!

Dramatic changes were made for the Bayern game, dropping both Szczesny and Vermaelen. Monreal was missing due to being cup-tied, Gibbs was back in the team after a prolonged injury (again), with rumours of both Walcott and Cazorla being rested, all on top of Jack Wilshere missing due to an ankle injury, albeit his left ankle this time. No Podolski or Sagna either. Flappyhandski installed between the posts sent shivers through many, but he didn’t disappoint.

There have been reports that the defence all sat down together following their woeful defending against the Spuds and decided to sort it out – ABOUT BLOODY TIME! I also suspect the mild mannered “I don’t shout” Wenger tore each and every Arsenal player a new rear end and kicked many of them very hard up the arse with his new shoes – LONG OVERDUE! These are very highly paid athletes, and most earn more in a week than the average man (or woman) earn in a year. All they are asked to do is turn up each week and show they really want it – not a hard ask is it? Tony Adams always used to say (as I suspect did Ian Wright, Viera, Henry and the great Bergkamp) that it is an honour to wear the Arsenal shirt. This lot, despite their massive wages (and egos), need to realise that – NOW!

Nothing to play for?

So Saturday arrived and a visit to a very wet Liberty Stadium would surely be an indication of how much Arsenal really wanted to get their s**t together. Swansea are on a high at present and Michael Laudrup has been a revelation for them and their style of play.

Once again, there was no Szczesny, Wilshere, Vermaelen, Sagna or Gibbs (although he was on the bench). Rosicky was on the bench, as was Ramsey (I am most certainly not the greatest Ramsey lover I have to say. He is, in my opinion, a squad player now at best) with Diaby, Cazorla, Arteta and the Ox being preferred. Walcott was up top with Giroud. Gervinho on the bench too. I personally think that is where he should stay. He is also only average at best. Sorry, he is!

It is always difficult following an away leg European game, and in years gone by, Arsenal may have seemed to be one of the fittest teams, but most, if not all Premier League teams are now a lot fitter than they used to be and seem to be on par with their fitness levels. They can no longer rely on inner fitness to carry them through, like days gone by. Arsenal needed to find those extra reserves of strength to last the full 90 minutes, and they did!

In the first half, Arsenal pressed and they pressed. The Ox hit the bar twice, Cazorla was playing (again) like a man possessed, the defence was marshalled once more by the mighty Kos and kept things tight(ish) at the back and the Gunners should have been at least one or two up at the break. Interestingly enough, Arsenal have a win percentage in the Premier League of some 58% when the Kos plays as opposed to only 38% when he doesn’t! At present, it seems to be a no brainer in that department.

The second half arrived, and yet again, Arsenal continued to press. It wasn’t the most impressive display, but Arsenal just kept going. Giroud was left wanting yet again, but Wenger decided to leave him on. As I am constantly reminded, it only takes one chance! Instead of looking pretty, he needs to get stuck in more. He decided to take off both The Ox and Diaby. The latter was knackered, but did put in a good shift. On came Ramsey and Gervinho in the 71st minute. Within another three minutes, the ball fell to Monreal who had his first ‘on target’ shot at goal since arriving in the Premier League, and he scored! The ball did bobble, but Vorm, in the Swansea goal, should have stopped it, although let’s take nothing away from the lad. At least, Monreal had the guts to have a go!

Swansea heads dropped and it looked like Arsenal would hold out till the end. Walcott was substituted by Gibbs in the 85th minute, and Arsenal were looking not to concede. In Injury time, the ball was played up field to Ramsey on the right. For once, he managed to square it correctly and the on-coming Gervinho for once refused to fluff his lines and place it in the back of the net. 0-2 Arsenal (I would settle for our new preferred score every game!)

All in all, a good day at the office for all concerned. Wenger heaped praise upon his ‘new team’ and it can only install a missing belief thus far to elude a team who deserve to be competing at the top – CONSTANTLY! Nothing to play for? Are you having a laugh? There is everything to play for, more so now than probably at any other time in Wenger’s reign over the last 16 years, despite it not necessary to be like this!

Last Word on the Spuds

Although as Wenger always says (and in fairness, as do most other manager’s), you can’t rely on other teams dropping points, you simply have to keep going and get as many points as possible. It does, however, always make the weekend sweeter when rivals near or around you in the table drop points. It is particularly even sweeter when the Spuds lose! We now also have a game in hand over them too!

I did (against my better judgement) watch how Inter tore the Spuds apart in Europe last Thursday. Despite my natural despise for Tottenham, I am big enough to appreciate that Gareth Bale is a decent player. Ronaldo he is not, but he certainly has something. However, without him, Spuds were not only embarrassing, but it simply shows despite everyone saying otherwise, how much reliant upon him they have become, and dare I say, they are a one man team! Many a Spuds supporter are away with the fairies when they mention how Adebeyor scored a great goal. Great goal? You can’t be serious? He only had to tap it in the net. My 95 year old Grandmother could have scored that, and she passed away some 23 years ago!

Chelsea, as expected, won against West Ham, and overtook that third spot, a point above Spuds, and five points above us. Everton beat Man City to keep up the pressure for fifth place, but Liverpool seem to be out of it with any chance of a top four place having been mullered by Southampton, and also playing a game more than us.

So, with nine games to go, there is everything to play for. 27 points are available to us, and bar any foolish performance, I believe 21 points are not only achievable, but essential for Arsenal. The potential banana skins are Everton and Man Utd, both at the Emirates. Man Utd would have won the title by the time they come to us, so who knows what team Fergie will play that day.

21 points gives us 71 points. Not even worrying about what others may or may not do, will it be enough for a Champions League place? I believe so. You never know, with both Spuds and Chelsea still in Europa League competition, they WILL drop points. As I eluded a couple of weeks ago, despite @goonerdave66saying I am the ‘optimist’, I think third is definitely achievable. Despite Man City dropping points again against Everton, I think they are too far ahead to be caught in second place. However, today, I would settle for fourth. That is not defeatist, just realistic!

Come on you Gooners!

I am not going to pretend I feel all is rosy in the Arsenal garden but I do believe now that we will overhaul Spurs and attain Champions League qualification. No, this is not a trophy for me and yes I would still, unlike the majority, it appears, have rather won the FA Cup and finished 5^th. However, I am confident of Arsenal now stringing together a sequence of results that will carry us where we need to go.

Is this because I feel Spurs will implode? No, not particularly, although they are doing a passable impression of the team that might. Is it because we appear to have an easier run in than our North London neighbours? No, not that either, although again on paper it might appear to be the case. Is it because, sadly, we have only the league and they have the Europa League as well? No, not especially, although fresh legs can, of course, be a bonus. Is it because I don’t believe Gareth Bale is quite as good as the sycophantic journos and pundits tell us he is? No, but while I am at it, he isn’t.

No, my feeling is based more on historical precedent and team selection. I will elaborate, but first, to get you in the mood, please enjoy the following, all written after we have been defeated at White Hart Lane on the 3^rd of March. And according to most observers, the North London power shift was on!

‘As Welsh goal-scoring wizard Gareth Bale continues his streak of good form, and first-year manager Andre Villas-Boas continues to pump his fists in triumph along the sidelines, Tottenham look almost certain to top Arsenal this time. The Gunners, meanwhile, appear doomed to finish outside the top four for the first time in Wenger’s era.’ (Bleacher Report)

But they won the North London derby, strengthened their position and separated themselves further from their rival, big-picture-wise. Indeed, Tottenham is in a position to show why they’re different from Arsenal, the moment when they can show they are a club of ambition and upward trajectory. That moment will come if and when they qualify for Europe and therefore have the best leverage to hold on to their best player, Bale, and show that they are not a selling club. (ESPN)

The Gunners are fifth in the table, five points shy of Chelsea in fourth place, never mind Spurs in third, and with just ten games left they look set to miss out on a top-four finish for the first time under Wenger’s management. (BWIN)

Tottenham v Arsenal: North London is bright, North London is Lilywhite (Metro Blogs)

 Final word on the scene setting I give to Harry Rednapp, this written on the day of the NLD in the Sun.

“Tottenham are about to end 18 YEARS of hurt and finish above local rivals Arsenal in the Premier League. It came within a whisker of happening last season, with just a point between them. Arsene Wenger’s Gunners have 15 or 16 good players and a few individuals who would get into the Spurs team.” (Oh please Twitchy!!)

Okay, so let’s refresh our memories as to what happened in 2011/12 and then look at how and why this is so significant in my mind for 2012/13.

February 26^th 2012. The North London Derby at the Emirates

Arsenal, after and awful run in January, which saw them take exactly ZERO points from 3 league games, find themselves way off the Champions League pace and 10 points behind their bitter rivals, who similar to this year, are claiming the infamous power shift. Arsenal are 2 nil down inside the first 20 or so minutes and face the real possibility of being 13 points behind their bitter rivals, with only 12 games remaining.

Of course, with Sagna’s header the turning point, Arsenal secure the first of 2 famous 5-2 victories and the momentum was to swing back in our favour. But why was this?

Well, something significant happened on the 26^th February that, for me at least, was the true reason behind what happened next.

 So, after the NLD victory, what could have been a 13 point gap on the 3^rd of March when Arsenal played next was a 7 point deficit. On the 3^rd of March 2013, after the defeat at Spurs, the gap, curiously, was the same.

So, in 2012, the emphatic win and come back led to a sequence of super results. The win over Spurs and the following 6 games, 5 in the league, showed above all had a common thread. So, what was the common thread that was so significant in late February and March of 2012 that had not been there in January and early February?

Some of you might be there already but if not, I will put you out of your misery. For Spurs on the 26^thFebruary and for every match in a busy March, Arsenal fielded the exact same back 4. Indeed, with the exception of a reversal at Loftus Road against a QPR side inspired and fighting for survival, Arsenal with the same settled back line of Sagna, Koscielny, Vermaelen and Gibbs won 7 out of 8 in all competitions, conceding only 6. They won 6 out of 7 in the league, securing 21 points from a possible 24 and climbed over Newcastle, Chelsea and Spurs ultimately into 3^rd place.

Interestingly, the line up changed against Wolves with Djourou and Santos coming in for Koscielny and Gibbs. Wolves were doomed and had given up, so the disruption had no impact. Very interesting, however, that the next game that could ultimately have cost us a place in the Champions League, at home to Wigan, saw the same changed back 4. Six weeks of a settled defence until injuries forced changes and the back four is carved open twice with ease by an ambitious, enterprising Wigan in the sort of attacking form that took them to survival.  Koscielny and Gibbs returned against Chelsea and a clean sheet resulted.

The lesson for 2013

To give Wenger credit, he has made some tough decisions for the past 2 games and the result has been 2 clean sheets in 2 very tricky away games. I am not going to dwell on whether he could have made some decisions earlier or even in the past (Mark Schwarzer!!) but he has made them and the impact is positive. One change has been enforced at right back due to the Sagna’s injury, but for those concerned that Carl Jenkinson would not be up to the cauldron at the Lane or in the Allianz need not have worried.  Jenko has a phenomenal engine and is able to get up and support Walcott in attack as well as get back and defend with precision and maturity. This, but, has a huge future at Arsenal and I am delighted he has stepped up so well, as I had my doubts last year.

The other 2 changes, dropping the skipper and the keeper, must have been difficult decisions and you have to admire that. Fabianski and Koscielny certainly appear to have improved the communication and the balance in our back line. There is little doubt in my mind that Koz understands the limitations of Mertesacker, mobility and pace wise and positions himself accordingly.  This pairing does seem to suit us better and you could see the improvement in Arteta’s game against Swansea with the renewed confidence the pairing behind him brought. There are rumours that Vermaelen is carrying an ankle injury, but I am not so sure. Certainly the captain’s notes in the programme v Reading will be an interesting read, particularly if he plays for his country between now and then.

The decision to make the changes was a critical one and the general shift away from playing the high line has been noticeable. The main point now if we look at the same period last year and draw from the obvious parallels is for Wenger to have the courage of his recent conviction. History and indeed common sense suggest that a settled back 4, indeed 5, breeds confidence and understanding. I see absolutely no reason to change a winning system now until he has to. So, for me, this means Jenkinson stays even when Bac is fit and the central pairing of Mertesacker and Koscielny is allowed to flourish despite it meaning our skipper and highest profile defender sits it out.

The only question that remains therefore is which of the 2 superb left backs Wenger will opt to give the nod to against Reading. Assuming Monreal is on the road with Spain and Gibbs is at Colney building up his strength and fitness, Wenger may opt for Kieran. Given that they are both so strong and reliable, I actually do not have a preference but I just hope that once he decides he sticks to his guns between now and May.

Finally, to reinforce my point, you might be interested to see the following:

3/3 Spurs beat Arsenal 2-1. Back five –  Lloris, Walker, Dawson, Vertonghen, Assou-Ekotto

10/03 Spurs lose to Liverpool 3-2. Back five – Lloris, Walker, Dawson, Vertonghen, Assou-Ekotto

14/03 Spurs lose to Inter 4-1. Back five  - Friedel, Walker, Gallas, Vertonghen, Naughton (3 Changes)

17/03 Spurs lose to Fulham 1-0. Back five – LLoris, Naughton, Dawson, Caulker, Vertonghen (3 Changes)

Our neighbour’s most recent result, courtesy of a rearranged defence and Berbatov, now sees the gap close to 4 points and we have a home game in hand. At this stage of the season, when every point counts for so much, consistency is everything. Consistency of selection leads to consistency of performance, leads to consistency of results. I seriously hope that Wenger looks back at last season and remembers how that run of games from the end of February, despite a few wobbles in May, took us from 6th to 3rd. A run, in no small part, being made possible because he was able to select the same defenders week in week out. If he looks further back to January last year, when we lost all 3 games in the EPL and scraped past Leeds and Villa in the FA Cup, and on each occasion we had a different set of defenders.

Food for thought and I hope you will agree a degree of logic involved, but the parallels with 2012 are uncanny. The gap on the 3rd March both in 2012 and 2013 was 7 points and with a settled defence, I feel history may be just about to repeat itself.

Who from my regulars envisaged me writing a blog suggesting it would be our defence that would show us the way?

If you answered YES to the above I don’t believe you!

#RememberingRocky by @The_Zama for 1ND2OU

It comes around fast each year, and it does not seem a year since most Gunners of a certain age begin to think about Rocky. The 31^st March is the 12th anniversary of the tragic passing of David Rocastle, as a result of Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma at the ludicrously young age of 33. The club paid a huge tribute in 2011 on the 10th anniversary of his death, but in reality, this year and every year, it is down to the fans to pay our respects in our own way.

I interviewed David’s son Ryan in December 2011 for Gunnersphere. I have always been grateful to Ryan and his generosity, and I updated this chat for my own site last March to mark the anniversary of his dad’s passing. Ryan is only a young man, and was a young boy in 2001, so most of what he knows about Rocky as a player, he has learned from videos and from us, the fans who watched one of their own take the league by storm in the late 1980′s.

He knows what Rocky meant, because he was reminded of it when we still sing his name 21 years after George Graham told a crying David that he was being sold to Leeds. However, for younger fans who perhaps don’t truly understand, I wanted to write this short piece to try and explain.

This little story which I have told friends recently now makes me giggle, but at the time I was a little stunned. I was in the Tollington with Ryan before the Bayern game a few weeks back. We were discussing the team and our thoughts about the game when out of nowhere, a scruffy bearded middle aged chap, with an army surplus jacket, over a 70’s retro Arsenal shirt saw Ryan, pushed through the crowd, jumped in front of him and sang (shouted) “Oh Rocky Rocky, Rocky Rocky Rocky Rocky Rocastle”. He followed this by saying “Your dad was a legend and I loved him,” before just turning away and returning without another word and rejoining his pals. I asked Ryan if this happened often, and he said, “Yes and that guy has done it several times in here.”

You see, to my generation, Rocky was a hero like Brady had been before him. Graham Rix has sort of carried the fans’ favourite tag after Brady left in 1980, but had not truly inherited the ‘King of Highbury’ crown. Charlie Nicholas arrived and we crowned him a Prince, after Bonnie Prince Charlie, and in 1985/86, when Rocky burst into the first team, Charlie was our hero. When George Graham arrived in the summer of ’86, something was about to happen, and it was he that brought the revolution combining experienced defence with an exciting bunch of home-grown youthful talent. Typically, however, as Rix told us later, when he fell out of favour with Graham and was sold to Caen in France, it was Rocky who wrote to him and thanked him for all the departing hero had done to help his development. Rix has never forgotten the gesture, but you will never find anyone in football who does not recall Rocky in the same way.

Rocky was only a year or so apart from me in age and came from Lewisham, just a few miles from me in South East London. So I instantly felt an attraction, as did David Dein, it appeared.

‘I ran home immediately to my wife in excitement and said, ‘I’ve seen the nearest thing to a Brazilian footballer you’ll ever see in our Academy…..and he’s from Lewisham!’ – David Dein on Rocky Rocastle.

His exploits in 1986/87 secured him legend status. To score a winning goal in a Cup semi-final is special. To score it to take your team to Wembley for the first time in 7 years, for a shot at their first trophy in 8 years, is very special. To do so in the last minute of the match at White Hart Lane, to knock the old enemy out in a replay is how legends are born. For younger readers, there is a superb guest blog describing the incredible 2 games, by Darren Jacobs.

This was our time again, and Rocky was the catalyst. The 1 nil down 2 one up semi v Spurs (twice), and the repeat performance in the final, my first with my team, stuck with me.

In 1988/89, the season culminating in the 2-0, mission impossible win at Anfield, Rocky was instrumental. They didn’t keep records of assists in those days, but I will tell you, as I was at most home games; he provided plenty and chipped in with six goals, including this epic solo effort at home to Middlesbrough. You have to wait 2 minutes for Rocky’s phenomenal solo goal, but trust me it’s worth it.

He played every league game of that historical season and was rewarded, as we were, with our first title in 18 years.

I did not want this to turn into a biographical piece but I did want younger readers and fans that have grown up with Bergkamp, Henry, Pires and Vieira to truly get a feel for the talent of this guy. I have been wondering how best to explain just how special he was and where he sits in Arsenal’s pantheon of true greats. He did not play for Arsenal for as long as he should have done, as George Graham decided his degenerative knee condition meant he could not play consistently at the top level. This was despite him only missing 4 games in 1991/92. Anyway, I will try and convey the message as I can from a personal perspective in a few statements:

- If I were selecting my greatest ever Arsenal side from all the players I have watched since 1976, David Rocastle is my right midfielder, with no hesitation whatsoever. Freddie Ljungberg is not in same class.

- There are 3 ex players whose names have been sung with regularity in recent times. Perry Groves, because he was a hard working gooner, Dennis Bergkamp, because he was a true footballing artist. David Rocastle, because he was BOTH.

- For fans who watched the great early Wenger sides, just imagine combining the best attributes of Ray Parlour with the best attributes of Robert Pires, and gentlemen, I present to you, David Rocastle.

- Very few players, even great players, have the worth ethic, tough tackling tenacity, combined with the almost effortless grace, balance, skill and dribbling. For those who did not see the Romford Pele at his peak, try combining Freddie Ljungberg and Bobby Pires in your mind from the Invincibles team and there you have Rocky again.

As his knee worsened in 1992, Graham had increasingly used Rocky in the centre of midfield, instead of on the right. Perhaps, this again was down to his decreasing mobility, but he played there as if he had done so all his career. Fittingly perhaps, then, that from the centre of the field, Rocky did this against Manchester United at Old Trafford in the October of 1991. A goal since voted the 16^th best in Arsenal history.

His final goal for Arsenal also came against Manchester United in February, but until the end of the campaign, which sadly saw us relinquish our title, Rocastle pulled the strings. There are times as a fan when you know it is a player’s last game for the club and you can pay tribute.  I remember singing ‘Don’t go Charlie’ to Charlie Nicholas, continuously against Norwich at the end of 1987. I recall Lukic throwing his gloves into the crowd at the last home game on 1990, also v Norwich. But we did not say farewell to Rocky as he sprayed balls left, right and centre, dominating a game in which we thrashed Southampton on the final day of 1991/92. No one knew at Highbury that day in May, least of all the man himself. Subsequently, we have done so ever since his passing and we will, I hope, keep paying tribute for as long as our generation go to the games and I hope, beyond. However, March is always the month, and the closet game to the 31^st this season is the home fixture v Reading on the 30^th.

This year is as important as ever, as we seem at times a Gooner nation divided. Our opinions differ over the manager, the board, transfer policy, tactics, formations, etc. As many have said, now is the time, certainly in the stadium, to unite behind the team, and at the time of #RockyRemebered, we should all remember his words, “Remember who you are, what you are and what you represent.” As fans, we are not excluded from this and we do indeed represent our club. I have a feeling that the atmosphere inside the Emirates on the 30th will not be an issue, as in unison, we pay tribute to one of our favourite sons.

For further reading, please click here, for in my view the best piece I have read on Rocky, written by one of the best Arsenal writers I know, Tim Stillman.

As last year, I suggest you change your avatar to a Rocky one in March, or certainly closer to the end of the month, follow #RockyRemembered on Twitter and Laura Howard, @LGoonerHoward, who will be organising this year’s march before the match on the 30th.  Here she is from last time, the blond on the left.

Please share your memories of Rocky in the comments.

Whilst I have in the past highlighted players who I feel would fit Arsenal’s salary structure and playing style from abroad, I am feeling increasingly that for 2013/14 and the challenges we face, our new additions should all have Premiership playing experience. In fact, I would go further and suggest all our summer purchases should be from other EPL clubs so all our new recruits will bed in swiftly in August.

Now already those of you who are desperate for Falcao, Villa or Jovetic are wondering whether to even to read on. Here goes Dave again suggesting bargain basement or kids with potential when we want Arsenal to buy world stars!! I am not against heavy investment as you will see but can we really afford to wait a season for a player to produce what he is capable of? I said that Hazard would not shine in his first year and despite the odd flash of brilliance I would say I was right. Arsenal cannot afford to wait for success any longer we need it next season.

For me, this is not about the money or the wages necessarily but it is about installing a new spine at Arsenal. A spine who know what it takes to compete in this league, but also a spine hungry for success. Now however, I will type the bit no one wants to read but you know you need to – a spine that has top quality but that will still come whether we are playing European Champions league or Europa League in 2013/14. Don’t get me wrong though, the players I think we need are good enough to play at the top table but currently they are not doing so.

Despite my misgivings about the current management structure, I am not totally disheartened by the playing staff and we do have a core of talented players. However we do seriously need to address the lack of quality and/or consistency in crucial areas. For me this will literally be the spine of the team so the 4 essential additions need to be a goalkeeper, centre back, central defensive midfield and centre forward.

Before I suggest the players I admire and would like to come in, I should first briefly explain why I feel these are the key positions that need strengthening. Huge details are not required because much of this is obvious to any Arsenal supporter and I will have touched on most of it in recent blogs.

I feel awful in some ways. Almost disloyal to a fellow Gooner but Szczesny is not quite the ‘Real Deal’ he thinks he is and if we are honest, most of us hoped he was. Yes, he makes remarkable saves but his decision making is erratic and his inability to either hold on to shots or parry them out of the danger area has cost us. His kicking leaves a lot to be desired as well. In short, he will be a great keeper but not many have been at such a young age and he needs time to mature without being continually in the spotlight. What I do admire about him is that his mistakes don’t seem to faze him and he bounces back instantly but we need another Seaman. We need a keeper who actually wins us additional points and since 2007 we have had keepers who cost them.

In my last blog on Sagna, I touched on the woes of our central defence. I am not a Mertesacker fan and I have no idea what has happened to the Thomas Vermaelen of 2009/10. We need a dominant leader who will inspire and organise us, to play alongside probably Koscielny. In short, we need a Sol Campbell-like figure to head the ball all day long who along with a new keeper will assist in removing the crowds’ collective hands in mouth every time we conceded a corner.

If we are to continue with the 4231 system or even if we finally accept that our formation can actually change from game to game, we need a stronger holding midfielder. I championed Arteta for the role and I still admire his ability enormously. He has the intelligence and the distribution required without doubt but I am beginning to question whether he has the pace and the strength. Too often our defence is left exposed because Mikel is just not able to cover the ground fast enough. I also accept that increased height in that role could be an advantage. We need a player who loves to sweep and is defensive minded first and foremost.

Lastly, if we stay with a sole striker system or with a pairing we simply must have an alternative to Giroud, who is a fabulous team player but needs to be pressured. The current manager, strangely,  has only played Lukas Podolski centrally in one game all season, for which I can see no explanation at all, but even so we need another target man.

So here we are the moment of truth arrives. Which four current  Premier League stars would jump at the chance to move to the Emirates this summer and are good enough to improve Arsenal, blend with the current talent and give us the backbone and leadership we so obviously need?

Goalkeeper – Asmir Begovic

The Stoke and Bosnia keeper is for me arguably the best keeper in the league right now. Certainly he is on a par with Joe Hart. His consistency is incredible and his presence quite frankly scary. He has an aura about him which the very best have. Seaman and Lehmann had it and Joe Hart has it but our young Pole does not.

This video shows quite clearly the athleticism on this giant of a keeper but watch closely the distance and direction when he parries or clears.

What we also know is that Stoke seem to have accepted that Begovic wants to move to a bigger club by securing the services of young England stopper Jack Butland from Birmingham. The Bosnian has been linked in the press with Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United during the last window. Fergie seems to have come out strongly behind De Gea however so the race for this top keeper’s services could be one with only 2 horses. The way I see it is that one of Arsenal or Liverpool will not be playing any type of European football next season and Begovic will go to the one that is. That will be Arsenal.

I would expect us to have to offer between £12 and £15 million but it would be well worth it.

Centre Back – Ashley Williams

Certainly not claiming an original thought here but whilst he impressed me last season, his first in the EPL, I wanted to wait and see how the Swans progressed in the dreaded second season.

He is not ideally as tall as I would like to see for the dominant centre back but everything else about him fills me with confidence. I remember writing a blog last season on Arteta and at that time only our Spaniard and Yaya Toure had better pass completions stats in the EPL than Ashley Williams. Now I knew Swansea were a passing team but to see a centre back at that time close to 90% was an eye opener. To be fair, you need this to be an Arsenal player but reassuringly he is a proper defender in the true sense, knowing that at times row Z is the best policy. I was always coached as a boy, if in doubt kick it out, and Arsenal defenders post George Graham seem to have forgotten that golden rule. Williams averages over 11 clearances a match in the league which I love to see in a centre back. For me, the best traditional centre half in the Sol Campbell mould right now is Distin and even he only averages 9 clearances per match.

There is calmness and an authority about this guy that appeals to me and he has learned his trade the hard way, in the lower leagues. Now he captains his country and a trophy winning Premiership side. Ashley Williams is a winner, a leader and a proper traditional no-nonsense centre back who can also play. The perfect foil for Kozza as Sol was for Kolo, particularly as he is a talker/organiser as well.

At 28, he is at the perfect age for a centre back and £10 million would see this one done I suspect, although he may not be in a hurry to leave his spiritual home.

Central Defensive Midfielder – Morgan Schneiderlin

I have already written a blog recently comparing this relatively unsung hero of Southampton with his more talked about French peers. All Arsenal fans seem to want Matuidi, Capoue or Gonalons but many did not even realise MS was from France. You can read the full post here.

I live in Southampton these days and therefore have many friends who are regulars at St Mary’s, so trust me when I say this chap is exactly want Arsenal need in front of the back 4. He is dominant in the air, passes superbly and efficiently and currently leads the major leagues in Europe for combined tackles and interceptions. As I was writing this piece I was informed by a friend on twitter (@asrbiswas) that albeit in a losing cause, Schneiderlin managed 10 interceptions and 8 tackles in the QPR defeat, probably a league record!

He has just signed an extension on his Southampton contract as I wrote last week,  but the word is down my way that Ferguson wants him to replace Michael Carrick. If this is indeed the case and it would make perfect sense, Arsenal need to move swiftly in June and make the Saints an offer that they cannot refuse.

I feel very strongly that this player is the missing piece in our midfield jigsaw, whether in a 4 or a 3 and he could finally be the successor to Gilberto Silva. £15 million cash on the table soon would would secure his services.

Striker -  Romelu Lukaku

This may surprise a few but I would love to see Arsenal make an aggressive move for Lukaku this summer. As a club we were heavily linked with him in the summer of 2011 but Chelsea blew us out of the water with a crazy bid and that was the end of that.

This year we have seen his huge athletic 6 foot 3 inch frame bossing the most experienced defenders whilst on loan at West Brom. This guy is like Adebayor in his 2^nd season at the Arsenal when he hit 30 goals. He has it all from my perspective, hold up play, technique, and great heading ability, the vision to bring team mates into play and startling pace for a big guy. He has one hell of a shot on him too!

However, unlike Adebayor, he is grounded, humble and willing to learn. As recent quotes from his current delighted boss Steve Clarke will affirm:

“He is very level-headed, he understands where he wants to go in the game, what he wants to be, how good he wants to be, and he’s prepared to work hard at that,” Clarke said. “For me as a coach, that’s refreshing.”

The powerful Belgian, who does not turn 20 until May, has already scored 12 Premier League goals in 25 appearances but just to put that in context he has only stared 12 of those games. Since the turn of the year, he has however started 8 out of West Brom’s nine matched and has scored 6. For no other reason than I just want to type this, 6 league goals in 2013 is one more than RVP!

Everybody will have marvelled at the combination of pace, strength and skill that saw him earn his team the points at Sunderland. Here’s the tribute from his team mate Ben Foster after the game

“He’s a tank,” Foster said. “I’ve given him so many plaudits already this season, but he deserves them. He is a really good lad and works so hard.

“He is always one of the last ones off the training pitch and in the gym doing that bit extra. I’m really pleased for him. He has none of that ‘big-time Charlieness’ about him. He’s a good, grounded kid.”

I have no idea whether Chelsea will sell him but having invested in Ba I cannot see the buying cease there. Even if they offload the hapless Torres there is little doubt in my mind that the Russian oil money will be making a statement this next transfer window. West Brom are making noises about a second season on loan but if we are honest they cannot afford what he will cost and we can. What is for certain though is that however humble the lad is, with a full season under his belt and by May perhaps close to 20 goals, Lukaku will want to be playing regularly.

Arsenal could offer the striker constant action and he is most definitely the type and quality of player we need. How much loyalty can the player have to a club that bought him, gave him 4 starts in a whole season and then loaned him out?

The Transfer Market website estimates his value at £16. 5 million and I would gladly see Arsenal over £17 million to tempt our West London neighbours to sell. The fact that we appear to be linked to Lukaku’s younger brother Jordan adds a further dimension

So as you can now see, this is not about doing things on the cheap. These 4 players would cost a total of £50 million plus. Money we have readily available to test the resolve of the clubs in question

Here’s how it might look assuming current formation:

Here’s how I would like it to look:

With this investment, with Giroud to compete with Lukaku and Ramsey, Oxlade- Chamberlain, Rosicky and I sincerely hope Joel Campbell applying the pressure and proper squad competition, 2013/14 could look mighty different.

So there you have it. I am not suggesting bargain buys, far from it. Indeed, we may have to pay a slight premium to wrestle some of these guys but all of them would make an instant and profound difference to our fragile team. Crucially and whilst sincerely hoping it does not happen, if we do miss out on Champions League all of these players would still see Arsenal as a big move. If the worst scenario does occur, it is this type of spine coming in that would ensure our absence was the briefest possible.

In what feels like the blink of an eye, Arsenal have gone from a club that routinely challenged and usurped Manchester United for trophies to a club that is nowhere near a title challenge and which can just about qualify for the Champions League. Arsenal have gone from a club that had outstanding players like Thierry Henry, Dennis Bergkamp, Robert Pires and many more, ready for anything and who you would trust with your life, to a club with players like Gervinho, Squillaci and Chamakh, ready for nothing and barely trusted at all. But it really doesn’t need to be this way.

People are concerned that we will struggle to sign Champions League players if we don’t qualify for next season’s Champions League, but we have largely eschewed such signings in recent years anyway. Most of our recent signings have been of a Europa League level. Are Chamakh, Gervinho and Giroud grade A Champions League players? Would United or City or Chelsea have signed any of them? Cazorla is a quality player and Monreal has looked steady in most of his appearances so far but they were signed somewhat on the cheap from Malaga, a club struggling financially. We have the resources to build squads capable of challenging, but instead we choose to get by. We could shop in Harrods’ food hall every day if we wanted, but we are making do with Asda.

We know in our hearts that the Invincibles are long gone enough now and far enough removed no longer to be relevant, but we want to support our current players and so we build them up, even though we know that they aren’t that good enough, as if somehow it won’t take that much to return to those outstanding and unheralded heights. It will. The Invincibles was an astounding one-off, not a benchmark. We want our players to be brilliant but we have added gilded reputations to players that don’t necessarily deserve them. Are we not getting enough from these players, or are they just giving the best that they can manage? Look at the team realistically, are these players under-performing or are they under-coached? I think it has to be both.

Look at the goalkeepers. Arsene Wenger inherited David Seaman and he was brilliant. By and large, Seaman won us points and trophies. Wenger replaced him with Jens Lehmann and, before losing it a bit and becoming random and wild, Jens was also excellent. Yet we then failed to replace Lehmann and instead pitifully allowed his average understudy Manuel Almunia to have several seasons as our number one. Almunia never looked good enough to help to win us anything and he was never going to be anything more than an okay goalkeeper.

We heard that Wojciech Szczesny was a talent in the making and, after random performances from Lukasz Fabianski, many fans felt that we had another great keeper on our hands when Szczesny started to become a first-team regular. But are you so sure now? Does his form make you feel safe? Is Szczesny being let down by poor coaching, or is he just not that special? Is Szczesny little more than yet another player that we hear on the grapevine is good, so the consensus builds him up and confirms him thus, yet he fails to fulfil his promise?

Sometimes goalkeepers are only as good as how well their defence avoids them being exposed, but I find Szczesny’s attempts at saves from long-range shots quite baffling. Rather than shift his feet to reach a nearer position to smother a shot, Szczesny often dives full length from his starting position. He has little chance to control and hold a shot that way and every chance to spill a shot outwards. That is a danger that both Blackburn and Villa recently took advantage of.

The back-ups for Szczesny are Fabianksi and Vito Mannone but they are not terribly trusted and provide little real competition. Surely we could have signed an experienced keeper, to act as number two, as competition for Szczesny, but also to help him become tighter in his game? The likes of Shay Given, Thomas Sorenson or Brad Friedel could surely have been signed to do that job. We certainly have the money, we just don’t have the brains. Again, why hold back?

Defensively we are a shambles at times. Thomas Vermaelen looked immense in his first season. He doesn’t look quite so immense now. Vermaelen has become a whirlwind of slovenly randomness. Is that down to his long injury lay-off, or just enough discomfort with the quality around him that he ends up trying to do too much and cover too many team needs, that he overstretches himself and fouls up his own work? Could the Arsenal captaincy truly be that much of a burden, that it negatively affects his game? Something is not right there.

Laurent Koscielny impressed heavily towards the end of his first season, even given his appalling and inexcusable balls-up with Szczesny in the 2011 Carling Cup Final, yet he can still have the most bizarrely absent-minded performances. Have Koscielny and Szczesny learnt anything from that cup final calamity? I am not convinced. Koscielny seems to switch off at times and arrive at the scene of a conceded goal that he should have been better placed to prevent. Per Mertesacker is a slow and ponderous defender who comes across as wise and reliable when he makes astute interceptions. However, Arsenal prevaricated at length over a suitable fee on whether or not to sign Gary Cahill and were ultimately usurped by Chelsea. Apparently Mertesacker cost Arsenal little different to what Cahill cost Chelsea. Who would you rather have at Arsenal, Mertesacker or Cahill? Personally I think there is little contest. When Mertesacker is caught out due to his physique or lack of speed, I wonder why we held back on signing Cahill.

In midfield we have enjoyed the likes of Fabregas, Flamini, Hleb and Nasri over recent seasons and a combination of factors have seen the likes of these players leave. Factors like the chance to join a hometown club, the chance to join a European giant (even if it doesn’t work out and you’re soon floundering, looking for a half-decent club) and the decision to leave through sheer loss of belief in the club’s way forward, through the sheer lack of investment in players, leaving us ill-equipped to sustain challenges. The lure of a bigger pay packet elsewhere never hurts of course and you could argue if you like that Nasri was largely only particularly effective in the first half of his last season with us, but still, we could have done without losing him or the others.

We have Jack Wilshere and he is a tremendous player that we are grateful to have, but beyond Jack you cannot help but feel that we are treading water in midfield. Abou Diaby is a talented attacking midfielder, but his fitness is sadly utterly unreliable. Mikel Arteta is an experienced operator, but he is limited as a holding midfielder. Aaron Ramsey gets shunted around various positions, Tomas Rosicky is a livewire talent, but he barely gets to see the light of day and we don’t even trust Andrei Arshavin enough anymore to play him.

It has been enough seasons now since Fabregas left Arsenal that we no longer need to hold ourselves back playing the Fabregas 433 formation, but we still persist with it, even though it does not appear to suit the players that we have now. I am not convinced that Arsene Wenger knows if Theo Walcott and Gervinho are strikers or wingers. That flexibility gives us striker options, but also limits us for true certainty over the credibility of those options. I have been a big admirer of Lukas Podolski for some time and I long felt that he would be a fantastic replacement for Robin van Persie should he leave. Well now we do have Podolski, a 100-cap wide striker for Germany, but we don’t give him the freedom to attack goal enough for me, which is a huge waste of his ability as a natural finisher. Instead we persist up front with Olivier Giroud who, although a player that I like, does not have a killer finishing instinct. Sadly you only need to look at how Giroud wanted an extra stride before taking his early chance at Spurs last weekend, which allowed Vertonghen time to knick the ball off him, to see that our attack is not ruthless enough. Again, why hold ourselves back? Why not play Podolski instead?

Our best and most experienced striker left out of out left. Why?

We should not remotely be in a context where Spurs can finish above us and oust us from Champions League qualification, but we are not currently better than Spurs. As things stand, we are currently seven points weaker than them. But current standings are not binding. Only the final league table is binding. That is what matters ultimately. It’s a 38-game season and this basic fact has saved us from Spurs finishing above us a few times now, like when they infamously only managed a 37-game season in 2005-2006 and when they missed out by one point behind us last season. Spurs were 10 points better than us at one point a year ago, verging on 13 points, but it was meaningless in the end because we finished one point above them. We can all go insane right now if we want to, at our current deficit behind them, but the bottom line is that we can only make the fullest sense of our plight this season once the campaign is over. As things stand, we have a season to save. It won’t be easy but it remains saveable. We can still turn this around and finish above Spurs. The final league table will not lie.

Who is holding Arsenal back? The board? The manager? Both? The players? The truth, being realistic, is all three, in whatever measures. A serial lack of squad investment over several seasons has seen Arsenal dissolve from being serious trophy contenders to borderline hangers-on. We talk up signing players and we talk up challenging for honours, but in the end we are failing on both counts, as the quality of our signings and our challenges are just not good enough. But the quality of the players here is not necessarily a binding factor. What is more cutting is the nagging feeling that there are problems in the coaching set-up and that this same set of players could be doing much better. Our apparent lack of constructive coaching seems to be strangling us. Cuttingly for Arsene Wenger, beyond some ridiculous and at times utterly disgusting and disrespectful abuse, could a different coach come in and improve this set of players, with better coaching and tactics? I think the answer there, unavoidably, is yes.

For now, personally, we need to concentrate on immediate pressing needs: finishing this season as well as possible. Perhaps a new manager could come in, right now and produce a better final outcome than Wenger might, but I don’t think that is remotely set to happen. For now, I think we all need to concentrate, as supporters, in supporting the players we do have, to achieve the best outcome that we can achieve. Yes, of course, we’d all love that to be a winnable title challenge but that is not on our horizon. Qualifying for next season’s Champions League and hopefully finishing above Spurs too are that horizon and I’m still confident that we can pull it off. Remember, it’s all about the final league table and it’s a 38-game season.

It’s hard not to get lost in negativity and wallow in self pity as an Arsenal fan this week. The last 2 weeks have been as bad as they could have been and the worst part is that if we are all honest, none of us are at all surprised. Pointless then for me to cover the ground some many other observers have smothered since ‘The Mighty Arsenal’  managed a grand total of NO shots on target in about 98 minutes of football at White Hart Lane.

I will say just this on the subject before I move on to my chosen subject of the day: FACT: Tottenham with one of two exceptions do not have better players than Arsenal. FACT: Tottenham are however a better TEAM than Arsenal. Read in to that what you choose but there is so much to read into. I would choose just to dwell on the positives and suggest that if we have better players we SHOULD with the correct coaching and motivation be able to produce a better TEAM.

What is glaringly obvious is that we have major issues in the centre of our defence. If I was kind, I could point to lack of communication but the reality is that for Arsenal to challenge again, we need better defenders. We can suggest that Wenger does not coach the defence, or discuss the fact that Bould is or is not allowed quality time with the central pairings. We can fall back on the argument that the management have had to shuffle the pairings due to injuries and that Vermaelen is struggling with the responsibility of the captaincy. All of the above may be partially or even totally true but none of them hide the actual real truth which is that the players simply are not quite good enough to take us where we want to go. They are all bloody nice chaps and individually good defenders and all have had great days. But they are not great players and the great days are not on a consistent basis. Yes, before you come back with the Wenger line, we may not have conceded many more than other teams but it is the way we concede them that grates.

There I have said it and I feel better for it. Thankfully whilst I have affection, often misplaced of late, for all Arsenal players, none of the 3 hapless souls leaving would tug too long on my sensitive heart strings. If however I was pushed and asked which one would I like stay and be given the opportunity to redeem himself, it is most certainly Laurent Koscielny, who I do have a soft spot for. He is the youngest of the 3 and the one who most readily fits into what I suspect is the vision of most Gooners. So what is the vision of which I speak? Well it is to see a pairing of similar make up or DNA to that which dominated opposing attacks in 2003/4. What Arsenal need for me is a big strong Sol Campbell type to head the ball away all day long together with a superb ball playing defender, our modern day Kolo Toure.

Oh, just to ensure it fails entirely, the one who reads the game very well does not have any pace to cut out the danger he has anticipated and the other is quick but too stupid to read the danger in  order to use his pace to snuff it out. HAPPY DAYS!

I see Koscielny as not quite a strong defender as Vermaelen and not quite as good a reader of the game as Mertesacker but he has more than enough of all the attributes to be the best combination in my opinion and is younger with time to mature.

I am sure not many would argue with the contention that Sunderland was our best defensive performance of the season. With 10 men after Jenko’s second yellow, it was backs to the wall to protect a slender lead and keep a clean sheet. Pivotal to that defensive display was Bacary Sagna who played centrally with Mertesacker that day. He read the game, made interceptions, won tackles, headers and generally threw his body in the way of anything and everything. In short, he was imperious and brought the body on the line displays of Martin Keown to mind. Quite simply, Sagna showed the big German up that day and the stats back this statement up clearly.  He made a third of Arsenal’s clearances out of defence that afternoon, knocking the ball away from danger 15 times. He won 6 out of 10 aerial duels even against Elliott, while our giant German competed for just one. So could Bac be the Kolo to play with a new dominant centre back coming in? I guess there are two questions we need to consider. Firstly, will Sagna be an Arsenal player in 2013/14 and if so could he become one of our central defenders?

In brief I will give my own view on the first part of the question and subsequently the second:

Sagna, by his own high standards that saw him voted twice best right back in the league, has not has a great season but there are mitigating circumstances. It is his first season back after not one but 2 broken legs and he has made uncharacteristic mistakes. The Sagna that we used to love, bombing on and overlapping, is no more. However, that Sagna played in a 442 and was protected by a right midfielder. Walcott affords him little protection to say the least.

I hope that Sagna is offered atleast a year’s extension for the wealth of knowledge and experience he brings to the pitch, to the dressing room and to Colney. The question is would he want more and the answer may well be yes. Wenger has already made the mistake of breaking up the Invincibles by selling players too early and not offering them proper deals into their thirties. I hope lessons have been learned and it appears from Arteta and Rosicky this may be so. However, even if Sagna opts not to sign whatever the club put in  front of him, he should be retained to see out his final year. This is not an RVP situation where we stand to turn down £25 million.  it is a Clichy situation where we may miss out on a £7/8 million fee. For what Bac offers, I would pass up on the cash offers. Despite the reported Sagna gripes and demands, Bac is not a trouble maker and he loves the club. We owe him the chance to play out his final season and to have one last big move. He is unlikely to break back into the French side now so we have an international player not playing internationals and this can only be good for Arsenal and I feel beneficial for Laurent Koscielny and Carl Jenkinson.

Secondly, it is well worth considering if Bacary could indeed provide some experience and know-how to our central defensive pairing for next season. You may consider me mad as I have seen him play at centre back in one game. One game where we had to do more defending than in many games this season I might add.

So can he play centre back week in week out or when required? I say yes and I hope to give some credence as to why I believe it so.

Initially, one has to recognise the experience that comes from playing in the Premiership for so long and the air of calmness under pressure that exudes from Sagna, to be fair even when off form. With this come the discipline and concentration required and this of course means fewer errors in the main. He wins more headers per game than any player in the Arsenal team and averages 3.4 aerial wins per game, which is no mean feat for his height.

However, my real conviction comes from recent and relevant precedents that just prove that players who are first and foremost quality defenders can adapt to any role across the back four. In the same way an intelligent mature midfielder like Arteta can adapt to the DM role, similarly it should be quite possible for an intelligent experienced full back to become a centre back . Someone correctly pointed out Sergio Ramos has moved with some aplomb from full back to centre back under Mourinho at Madrid. However the 2 excellent and relevant precedents I have in mind are more pertinent still as they are from France and both peers and mentors to Bac. Both also are not just average players, both have been among the world’s top defenders in recent times in both positions.

Lilian Thuram

Quite simply, one of the best exponents of defensive play I have ever seen. 18 years as a top flight footballer in France, Italy and Spain, for Monaco, Parma, Juve and Barcelona. 14 years as an International with an astonishing 142 caps, making him his country’s most capped player.

Man of the Match in 2 World Cup Semi finals in 98 and 2008, a record holder with 16 appearances in European Championship Finals. A World Cup Winner, a World Cup Runner Up and a Euros winner and I could go on.

Thuram was a Cup Winner with Monaco in France and Parma in Italy, multi Scudetto Winner with Juventus and twice a Cup winner with them also.

Big deal you say, but what is the point? Well the point is he won the World Cup, Euro’s, Cups with Monaco and Parma and his first titles with Juventus as a right back.  Capello then decided to pair him with Fabio Cannarvaro and he won 2 titles (subsequently removed due to betting scandal) as a centre back. Curiously, Thuram was successfully converted from a full time RB to a fulltime CB in his 31^st year and did not look back. He then was persuaded by French coach Domenech to come out of international retirement to partner Gallas, captain his country and he led them to the World Cup Final in 2006.

Eric Abidal

For the bulk of his career in France with Lyon where he won 3 consecutive Ligue 1 titles  05 to 07 , he was playing a s a left back. He then moved to Barcelona where he had a year off winning the league before resuming with another 3 consecutively in Spain.

Despite his well publicised health battles, Abidal has starred for Barca both as a left back, one of 3 centre backs and as one of a pair of central defenders. He is a complete defender and fills any position on the left of the defence with ease.

For France, he began as a regular left back in 2004 and in the 2006 World Cup played alongside Thuram still on the left but by the 2008 Euros he was regularly the left centre back in the finals. This continued on to the finals held in S Africa in 2010.

So another French footballer able to hold down a place in his national side, at centre back or left back, because he is just a quality defender who reads the game. In fact in August 2007 , when Sagan made his debut for France coming on at right back, Eric Abidal was playing at centre back, despite regularly still playing left back for his club.

 So…

So in conclusion do I think Sagna could or will be one of our first choice centre backs next season? Probably not. Do I think he is capable of playing there for Arsenal and be called upon on an ad hoc basis or with regularity? Yes I do. Would I like to see Bacary Sagna in our 1^st team squad in August, new contract or not? Yes I would.

I would like to see a brand new strong centre back in the mould of Adams, Keown or Campbell bought in June/July and able to have a full pre-season with Laurent Koscielny but I see Sagna as an alternative or understudy to Kozza.

It may never happen but many of the best centre backs in the game have their finest years in their early 30s and there is absolutely no reason why Sagna could not make that conversion with consummate ease. Certainly our current manager believes so and told Arsenal Player after the game at the City of Lights:

Wenger was impressed by the defender’s display, and is happy to have inherited another option at the back.

“I always thought he could play there one day,” he told Arsenal Player.

“We pushed him in this position in training. What he showed in training was encouraging. He had no preparation. He was told 10 minutes before the start of the game and he dealt very well with that situation, so that’s very positive.”

One final point is this. I have been worried about Carl Jenkinson but he was easily our best player against the old enemy on Sunday and given his is a Gooner, I would no longer feel that if we keep Bac this is an arena we need to spend money.

Apologies for not writing for a while. Depression and soul searching post Blackburn and a short family holiday are my excuses, but in reality, even had I the time, I had no clue what I wanted to say. Well, that also is untrue because, as some of you know, I sort of had in mind what I wanted to write and say but was unsure whether I should go ahead. Why? Because the subject matter is quite personal and I did not wish to write this article whilst angry after my team’s pitiful exit from the oldest and best club competition in world football.  Nevertheless, here we are. This is not for the faint-hearted and many ultra positive Wenger supporters may find the theme objectionable. However, those who have followed me for a year of so will know two things about me. One is that I have always strived to keep my lager glass half full and secondly that I don’t tend to blast from the hip, but prefer the comfort of extensive research to reinforce my view is possible. Before I get to the main thrust, I should first set the background. It is clear that I am from a different generation to many, in fact the majority of my readers and many of those I interact with on twitter. The modern game has changed, I accept, and for many, priorities have changed as well. Even, it would seem, for our club and our manager. I have to accept this but I do not have to endorse it, appreciate it or welcome it.

You see, I am of a generation that grew up watching no league games live all season and dodging the results to watch all the highlights on MOTD. Or when the weather allowed, I went to the woods with my mates on a Saturday afternoon in the 70s. We had made a secret camp and we all sat eating sweets and listening to the live commentary on our portable transistor radio. If I was lucky, it would be Arsenal but I was just grateful to be away from my family who just did not get my passion and listening to live football. However, watching live club football was something else entirely, because you couldn’t. In fact, barring the occasional England match or the Home Internationals, there was only one live match to enjoy all season. That match was, of course, the FA Cup Final. Always the last day of the domestic season, and always extra special. It took over the whole day and the programming started at about 10 am for a 5 hour build up to the big kick off at 3pm.

The players of the 2 sides would have been filmed doing something silly during the build up. All mangers and stars were accessible and all entered into the spirit of the biggest day in the football calendar. We followed both teams from their hotels having watched them eat breakfast or lunch to Wembley, and there was a camera on the coach. We followed them off the coach into the changing rooms and we saw their kits laid out. We then watched the highlights of each team’s progression to the final and chatted to them in their new Cup Final suits on the hallowed turf.

For me, it was double pocket money day and Cup Final Saturday. Down to the sweet shop at 9am and back in time for the long and fabulous build up and trying, whilst almost certainly failing to make the huge white paper bad, filled with shrimps, cola bottles, jelly snakes, foam mushrooms and the like, to last until the big match. You need to understand that it was brilliant if your team was one of the 2 finalists but the whole country watched regardless. This was the biggest day of the season and the only club game live on television. The first I recall well was Liverpool defeating Newcastle in 1974, when I was nearly 8. I was an Arsenal fan but had not been to Highbury and the FA Cup Final was a thrilling day for me who ever played. I had been taken to Arsenal twice in 1976/77 and Arsenal were resurgent under Terry Neill and I was obsessed with all things Arsenal. My walls were covered with posters and stickers, my Arsenal shirt was never off my back and we were in the ’78 final and favourites to beat Ipswich.

My love affair with the FA Cup was cemented on that day in 1979 and despite many highs and lows, it has continued ever since. I apologise for the long scene setting but it is important that younger readers understand what the Cups mean to me. I was not fortunate enough to see Arsenal victorious in the great competition in the flesh until 1993. However, before that pleasure, I had been to 3 Wembley Finals with Arsenal all in the League Cup. In 1987, 1988 and also in 1993. My blog was named after the semi final and final of 1987 and April 5^th when we beat Liverpool.

1987 for Arsenal, despite the surprise defeat to Luton in ’88, was the spring board for a George Graham side to go on to bigger and better, securing 2 league titles. The league Cup was also the first trophy for Mourinho in time at Chelsea and that success in the spring 2005 saw his side march on topple Wenger’s Invincibles in the Premier league. Many present day Gooners laugh at Liverpool and mock them. I do not. I would have given anything for Wembley glory against Birmingham in 2011 and have tasted that winning sensation once more as they did in 2012. Will history remember that Liverpool failed to qualify for the Champions League for many seasons whilst Arsenal and Wenger qualified year on year? Or will history record one Champions League win, one FA Cup win and one League Cup win since Wenger’s Arsenal last lifted silverware?

Poor old Arsenal are being forced to compete with Manchester United’s wealth and the oil tycoon’s money behind Chelsea and Manchester City. How can Wenger possibly have won silverware since 2005 when not being able to compete on a level playing field? Perhaps in the same way others have by being true to the traditions of English football and the long suffering fans of our great club. We may not be able to compete over 38 games with the squads and money of the big 3, although I still believe with a fair wind and the right tactics, we can. But there are 4 major trophies and 2 of them are domestic cups. They may not mean as much to Wenger but they certainly do to a 46 year old traditionalist who fell in love with the proud heritage of English cup football.

As I left Highbury, who was I blaming? An oil tycoon or Arsene Wenger? Oh well, we were Invincibles 2 years earlier and FA Cup winners a year earlier, so we took it on the chin. Lesson learned though, right? NO.

League Cup Final 2007 v Chelsea – This time we made it to a final and our Young Guns has performed admirably with only 3 or 4 first team regulars defeating the old enemy in the semis. However, this was the final and we were playing one of the strongest teams in Europe. Surely, knowing Chelsea would put a full side out, Wenger would do the same and go for glory. Oh no, Wenger knew best. Obvious that Hoyte, Traore and Senderos could deal with Drogba, Shevchenko, Lampard & co! NOT!

Have you ever seen such a mismatch? I am sure this knocked the youngsters back years rather than helped their progress. Yes, these guys had beaten Liverpool and Spurs, but come on Arsene. We were lucky to lose only 2-1. Walcott scored his first for Arsenal but Drogba scored twice. His 27th and 28th of the season, so who saw that coming? So I ask again, was this loss entirely down to Abramovich’s millions or do we think Hleb, Adebayor, Gliberto, Henry, Campbell, etc might have given us a shot at a trophy? Sorry, but for me, it is down to wrong selection and priorities AGAIN. Oh well, we were Invincibles 3 year earlier and FA Cup winners 2 years earlier. Lessons learned and move on wiser and more understanding of the fans wishes?  NO!

League Cup Semi Final 2008 v Spurs – Now, as we are playing the old enemy, not only was a place at Wembley at stake but also North London pride and bragging rights. We have now not won for 3 years, so the club and manager MUST go for this one surely? NO. Remember, this is our best side since 2004, with a dynamic 4 man midfield of Rosicky, Fabregas, Flamini and Hleb tearing up the league? Yes, well Mozart has just been injured and the other 3 weren’t selected for the home leg, which we promptly drew 1-1. No matter, we had the second leg to go. Wenger brought Hleb in, dropped van Persie, played Bendtner and Walcott up top and we lost 5-1. Well, that was an all time low and Wenger threw away our best chance of silverware in 3 years.

Guess what, to add salt into the gaping wound, Spurs beat Chelsea to lift the trophy and oddly, both sides played full strength teams! Oh well, we were Invincibles 4 years earlier and FA Cup winners 3 years earlier. Lessons must have by now been learned and the penny must have dropped with Wenger after 3 seasons of handing trophies to our nearest rivals, Err, NO!

FA Cup Semi Final at Wembley 2009 v Chelsea – Wenger has taken the side to this stage combining second string with regulars and it has worked. But let’s be honest – a mushroom under the soil in a darkened room might have suspected Chelsea at full strength a sterner test than Plymouth, Cardiff, Burnley and Hull. Apparently not our enigmatic leader, who once again knew better. The thing to do, says Arsene, is to rest our two biggest signings in Nasri and Arshavin for the FA Cup Semi Final against a full strength Chavs. Who on earth would we need our second and third most creative players? Far better to play Diaby on the left and Walcott on the right! The date was the 18^th April 2009 and something happened quite unusual 3 days later after we had been knocked out of the Cup. A certain tiny, fully fit bemused Russian stuck 4 past Liverpool at Anfield. Call me old fashioned, and we have established that I am, but I would sooner have seen him on fire at Wembley, shooting Arsenal into the final. Obviously, I don’t need to tell you that Chelsea went on to beat Everton and claim another trophy for the cabinet.

Those dastardly oil tycoons have somehow forced Wenger to play reserve teams, costing us 4 cracks at trophies in 4 years. How dare they? Any way, you will be relieved to hear, Wenger, after 4 years of disrespecting the fans, the domestic cups and the other teams, finally decided to go for broke in 2009/10. Oh no. sorry. he didn’t. My mistake. 2009/10 was actually the lowest point in our French leader’s disrespectful team selections.

In summary, please don’t blame the big money spenders with bottomless pits for our lack of silverware these past 8 years when much of the blame lies closer to home. For me, the domestic cups mean so much, and for most of my generation and older, the end of season finale is a huge day to rival any occasion. I want us to be there and Wenger for so long, this season included, decided our priorities lie elsewhere. Well, for this Gooner they don’t and I have no wish to have supporter’s priorities determined by one man. I would never swap an FA Cup Final for 4th place and I firmly believe that whilst many may not have agreed 2, 3, 4 or even 5 years after the Invincibles, they do now. We may not compete for the very top players or pay the top wages, but Cup competitions are not always won by those teams. The other top sides in the main always play stronger sides at least in the latter stages and Wenger choosing not to do likewise has cost us trophies in the past 8 years. For me, this is indisputable. I will always back my team and I will back Wenger but I will not be told he can do no wrong and hear everyone but him blamed for our malaise. To quote Peter Hill-Wood today, “Whilst we have our sights set on a 16th straight season in the Champions League, our aims are higher; our ambition is to win trophies.”

After a shaky start and the predictable doom and gloom hysteria at the Emirates, a very new Arsenal team seems to have finally stabilised. In the past, no matter what was going on in the league, Arsenal have always looked different in Europe. Now however, with this new group of players, this is their first real chance to show their European hand. Bayern on the other hand are very firm favourites and for good reason. They’re flying in the Bundesliga, and with a 15 point difference and more than double the goal difference between them and second place Dortmund, the title, bar a miracle, is going to Bavaria. Having witnessed their fiercest rivals win back to back titles and finish second in every competition they entered last season including a home Champions League final, Bayern came back with a few minor additions from the transfer market, but also with a killer desire and a ruthless attitude.

Lukas Podolski must start this game. Podolski was once one of the brightest talents in Europe, and at the age of 21 secured a move to Bayern Munich. After getting off to a decent start, injuries saw him move down the pecking order, and eventually Podolski had to leave Bayern after mustering a measly 15 league goals after 71 league games. He moved back to Koln, and is even to this day much-maligned in the media for his spell at Bayern, with some even citing this as evidence while suggesting that he would flop at Arsenal. They branded Podolski a failure and suggested that he could never fit in at a big club. Whilst the man himself has played down the link and not commented much on his time there, after starting on the bench for the last three games Podolski must be chomping at the bit for a game, and it seems like Wenger may have planned this one out perfectly.

Despite our apparent problems at the back, Bayern’s list of viable centre-back options is not very long either. It will be difficult for their coach Heynckes to finalise a strong back line. With Badstuber out for what seems to be the remainder of the season, 2 out of Boateng, Van Buyten and Dante have been playing in the league. However, with Boateng suspended for the Arsenal game after receiving a straight red in the final game of the group stages, Hynckes may opt to play Javi Martinez at centre-back and plug Luis Gustavo into midfield. Whatever Bayern decide to go with at the back, it certainly won’t be totally familiar to them, with 2 first choice players missing. I think we all saw in the England vs Brazil game that Dante is not the strongest, and Van Buyten, at 35, is certainly not the player he once was. The challenge for the Gunners is to be at their best from the first whistle, and play with pace.

Unlike at the back, the options are there for Arsenal in attack, and one of them would be to start Aaron Ramsey in place of Mikel Arteta. It’s a risk given the defensive stability Arteta adds, but there doesn’t seem to be much of that around at the Emirates any more. Arteta’s focus and determination seems to be to his detriment, as his focus is on being in the right defensive position, while his less-risky approach with the ball is sometimes a hindrance. Aaron Ramsey is more forward thinking, and is an iron-lungs type of player, meaning he can contribute to the team in attack but also have the pace to get back and be in the correct defensive positions. This will be an important for Arsenal on Tuesday, as Bayern are much more comfortable controlling the play and having more possession. So it’s imperative that Arsenal attack Bayern from the off and ensure that they play football that is uncomfortable for their opponents and force them to try and counter.

Counter-attacking is not one of Bayern’s strongest points, as they have players who are much more suited to having the ball and lots of it. In the Bundesliga so far, they have had 63.9% possession and have only scored 8 of their 57 goals on the counter. However, if there’s anything we’ve learned about Arsenal in the past week, it’s the fact that they are unpredictable. Having been knocked out in two competitions by lower league opposition despite being comfortable favourites, it remains to be seen how they handle the tag of underdog.