I was watching last year’s Western Conference finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs, Game 6. All anyone needs to do to understand the difference between OKC circa 2012 and 2013 is watch that game. The first half of the season offered glimpses of near-sighted happiness to all of Thunder’s fans (me included). “Beard, what beard?” and “K-Mart to the rescue” resonated in Loud City all too often. Getting off to a great start, the Thunder reached the All-Star break just a game behind the Spurs for #1 seeding in the West.

Thereafter, it has been a very, very weak performance. You may counter, saying that they had a 11-4 run following the All-Star break, but you have to factor in the quality of opponents they faced. The losses have come at the hands of the streaking Nuggets (twice), the Spurs and the Rockets, all of whom are playoff bound and possible competition for the Western Conference crown. For any other team, a 11-4 run might be okay, but for the young Thunder, who will (and should) view this season as a failure if they fail to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy (even at the expense of the mesmerizing Heat), this is not a great trend.

Back to the departure of Harden; people look at Houston and see the All-Star that he has become there (something he would have never become in Oklahoma) and everyone is happy. But the Thunder lost much, much more than just a third scoring option with his exit. They lost a second, smarter floor general. They lost someone who could change the game even MORE then Durant or Westbrook. They lost the knockout punch that followed the 1-2 punch of KD and RW. They lost someone who commanded double teams on a team with 2 perennial All-Stars. They lost someone who could score from outside, inside, get to the rim, draw fouls (he leads the league in free-throws attempted) and on a whole, be as important for the opposite defence to mark as KD and RW.

Don’t get me wrong, Kevin Martin is not a liability by any stretch. Coming off the bench, spotting up for the 3, the occasional backdoor and stretching the defence are great things he brings to the table, but what he doesn’t bring far outweighs what he does. During the first half of the season, Durant and Westbrook shared the responsibility of the extra work needed among themselves. But that is a very dangerous strategy to be using during the playoffs when teams will be on them like white on rice. Serge Ibaka has started to shoot the corner 3, but that again isn’t going to be the staple. Coach Brooks has his work cut out for him and I, for one, wouldn’t be surprised if he starts to ask Westbrook to play as a PG and not a 2-guard.

As of now, their energy seems a little low, and they better pick their game up if they want to burn away the memory of the team dejected in defeat after last year’s promise filled Finals.

Miami Heat

If you had just completed a summer which included winning the Larry O’Brien trophy, Bill Russell finals MVP, the Olympic gold, Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year and the US Basketball Athlete of the Year, even your staunchest detractor would be ok with you taking the foot off the accelerator, sitting back and just letting life pass you by. But NEVER LeBron James. The reigning MVP has put up another strong start to the season and is looking set for MVP trophy #4 in 5 years. But the Heat have played like a team which is waiting for the playoffs to show what they are really made of. They have almost sleep-walked their way to the top of the East with a 22-8 record. Coach Spolestra has tinkered with his style of positional basketball, eventually realizing that James is the only one who can play all five positions. Bosh has shown his dominance ever so sparingly and Wade has mixed his good games with the occasional dismal ones. Ray Allen looks older with every game and Chalmers has been mismanaged a lot. But, James has made sure to not let anything else bother him as he has truly lifted their game when it matters most, at both ends of the court.

PREDICTION for Conference position: #1

New York Knicks

Spike Lee must have been extra good this year as Santa brought home his favorite Knicks at #1 in the East at Christmas. Since then, injuries and a ragged defense have caused them to drop to 2nd behind Miami with a 22-10 record. There is no doubt as to who to credit for this extraordinary turnaround for the Knickerbockers. Carmelo Anthony is the man of the hour. Not only has he shot lights out, but he has also improved his defense and off the ball movements, which used to be his main weaknesses. Coach Mike Woodson, known for his emphasis on defense, has made the Knicks a solid defensive unit. Led by the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, center Tyson Chandler, the Knicks have shut down teams with their active rotation on the pick and roll and the scary menace of Chandler in the middle. Another important cog in the wheel has been the presence of guards Jason Kidd and Raymond Felton. Yes, they are old and yes, they’ve lost more than a step, but their experience and distribution skills are exactly what the Knicks offense needs. With them controlling the flow, Anthony delivering the goods inside and out and spot up shooters like Steve Novak, Pablo Prigioni raining 3 on slow defenses, the Knicks look set to head into their second consecutive playoffs. It remains to be seen how they shuffle their starting 5 once Amar’e Stoudemire returns to the fore (He recently completed his 2nd game back playing limited minutes).

PREDICTION for Conference position: #2

Brooklyn Nets

The Knicks’ inter-city rivals started out the season on a high following their move from New Jersey to the $1 billion brand new Barclays Center. After getting Deron Williams to sign on the dotted line and pairing him in the backcourt with the talented Joe Johnson, the Nets started out very impressively, rounding it by beating the Knicks in the inaugural “Battle of the Borough”. But since December they have gone downhill. Center Brook Lopez, playing at an All-Star level, got injured and had to sit out for close to two weeks. Deron Williams, used to much more control and possession of the ball, didn’t like the offense being run by Coach Bradley. Things became so bad that Nets’ owner Mikhail Prokhorov had to fire him to appease Williams. Interim coach P.J. Carlesimo has been handling the reins for 3 games now and it’s too soon in the day to judge him.

PREDICTION for Conference position: #5

Chicago Bulls

For a team playing without the face of the franchise, the Bulls have strung together quite the impressive run this season. They are currently 5th in the East with a 17-13 record. Luol Deng and Joakim Noah have played their hearts out and coupled with a string of useful performances from the bench, have ensured that when Rose returns (hopefully pretty soon), they have a great foundation laid. They should make the playoffs but going any further would depend completely on the 2011 MVP.

PREDICTION for Conference position: #6

The other playoff predictions for NOW (in no particular order): Atlanta Hawks (#3), Indiana Pacers (#4),  Milwaukee Bucks (#7) and the Boston Celtics (#8).

Out West, the lines are much more blurred. The young guns of the Oklahoma City Thunder have hardly missed a beat from last season and have moved on to a 23-6 start. They have more than come to terms with the James Harden-Kevin Martin trade. Granted, K-Mart is no penetrating, creating and scaring defenses Harden, but Coach Brooks has made adjustments to the times of Durant and Westbrook to ease the transition and the result is the league’s No. 1 offense. They even had 2 blowout victories over the Rockets to keep bragging rights at those casual meetings b/w Harden and his OKC friends.

PREDICTION for Conference position: #1

Like Scott Brooks said, there are only 3 sure things in life – Death, taxes and Pop winning 50 games a season. Like a well-oiled machine, Greg Poppovich has made sure the Spurs play as well as they can, limiting the minutes of All Stars Duncan, Parker and Ginobli along with veteran Danny Green. He took it a bit far when he left all 4 in San Antonio and left for Miami with his second unit to play what turned out to be a close loss. Commissioner Stern was not in the least bit impressed and slapped the Spurs with  a $250,000 fine. But Pop couldn’t care less and the Spurs have quietly moved on to the 3rd best record in the league (23-8) on the back of a young Timmy legs. The future HOFer has been playing like the MVP level Duncan of the old. They have looked a bit raggedy on defense but that is hardly a problem a good ‘ol Pop speech can’t sort out.

PREDICTION for conference position: #2

Move over Lakers, there’s a new numero uno tenant in Staples Center. The Clippers, YES, THE CLIPPERS, are the number 1 team, as I type, with a 24-6 start (half a game ahead of OKC) which is on the back of a 16 game winning streak. Yes, 16 successive victories for CP3 and the boys. They may have had a little lady luck with the schedule but take nothing away from them. They are the only team in the NBA ranked in the top 10 in both offense and defense. The creative genius of floor general Chris Paul and the explosiveness of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan has brought back the golden days of the Showtime Lakers. But the most important cog in their wheel has been possessing the deepest bench in the league. Coach Vinny del Negro (already a candidate for Coach of the Year) has utilised the second unit of the Clippers as well as is possible. Jamal Crawford (sure shot 6th man of the Year) along with Lamar Odom, Matt Barnes and Eric Bledsoe have ensured that Paul and Griffin are not burnt out while playing major minutes to ensure a Clippers victory. When the coach has enough confidence in the bench to make sure that the starters don’t play a single second of the 4th quarter, you know what you are dealing with.

PREDICTION for conference position: #3

But how can we ever forget La La land? The Lakers pulled off a mini miracle when they managed to bring Superman part 2 and Nash together. Coach Mike Brown started the season with the Princeton offense and BAM, 5 games and a 1-4 record later, was fired. Yes, the Lakers were under a new coach with the season a mere five games old. Mike D’Antoni was selected ahead of Phil ‘Zen Master’ Jackson to ensure the Lakers get Kobe another ring. The results were not pretty. Kobe scored, the defense sucked, Kobe scored, the offense sucked, Kobe scored, Pau and Nash sat out with injuries, Kobe became the youngest to score 30000 points in NBA history and the Lakers were in sub .500 territory. After Nash returned and the defense FINALLY showed up, the Lakers reeled off 5 successive wins and are now 15-15. As long as Nash stays healthy and runs the offense, the Lakers should be able to make the play-offs but how far they go remains to be seen.

PREDICTION for conference position: #7

As of NOW, the other play-off teams, in no particular order, Golden State Warriors, Memphis Grizzlies, Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets.

But, what’s past is past. Time to move on. Time to evaluate the trades and make fresh predictions for the new season. Predictions which, if the 2012 finals are any indication, will fail so badly that we might as well add a disclaimer to NOT take anything seriously.

The 2012-2013 season starts off Oct 30 with Cavaliers facing the Wizards (meh!). The match of the opening night is undoubtedly when the Champs Heat visit the Celtics. Ray-Ray back to the place where he got his first ring. A lot has changed since he was traded from Seattle to be a part of the New Big Three at The Garden. He is older but not as fit as then. But, he still retains the ability to strike fear into every bench in the NBA. Given that he plays the same position as Dwayne Wade, it is uncertain what kind of role Eric Spoelstra and Pat Riley have in mind for him but since the Heat don’t follow the conventional positioning system (evidenced last season when LeBron played the floor general during stretches while playing the 4 during defense), it should be very interesting to see this develop. The Heat have potentially the most diverse of line-ups they could use to devastating effect, more so since Lebron finally has the monkey off his back and now has no one to answer to.

The Lakers start their season the same day against the totally messed up Mavericks. Not only did they mess up their trades and still NOT manage to get either Dwight ‘Superman’ Howard or Deron Williams, they also let the 2 Jasons (Terry and Kidd) go without proper backup. I would say this season is going to be just as tough as last season for them. Hopefully, they build themselves up better for the season next year. But that’s not what that game is all about.

The Lakers got a new weapon baby. He is 38 and has more hair than the last old guy to lead the offense. Steve Nash‘s induction into the purple and gold is another one of those things I’m looking forward to this season. Nash operating the pick and roll with Bynum (or Howard) is going to be a nightmare. Even though Nash has lost more than a couple of notches in the speed department, he is still the best TRADITIONAL pass-first Point Guard in the league (something the Lakers could use). Nash could make up for his non-existent defense by giving the Lakers a direction offensively, especially since they are looking to the Princeton offense to guide them this season.

The Brooklyn Nets‘ retaining Deron Williams was a bright move but the same cannot be said about the Knickerbockers dealing out Jeremy Lin. Granted, he may not be the best PG in his division even, but he was good and he could have been given the chance to drive home the Linsanity throughout a frankly disappointed MSG.

How the Bulls manage to stay afloat without Derrick Rose is something you just cannot imagine. They even traded Omer Ashik among others to kinda break the back of their bench. There is only so much anyone should expect Luol Deng to do.

The Clippers will be raring to go out and prove who the better team in Los Angeles is. With the addition of Lamar Odom at the PF, and the remaining squad pretty much intact (apart from Moe Williams’ departure perhaps)

The thing I am personally looking forward to is how the Thunder get back  after their, frankly, disappointing debut Finals performance. They have the most talented young roster in the league and now they have the experience of how NOT to play in the finals too. With a smarter Westbrook, a more aggressive Durant and more support offensively from the Human Shot Blocker Ibaka the future for OKC looks brighter than most teams. Scott Brooks’ contract extension should only make the whole team atmosphere that much better.

October 30 can’t get here soon enough. Here’s to surviving the 3 non-NBA months.