5 reasons why New Zealand will struggle in the World Cup final

With the month-and-a-half bonanza finally coming to an end, New Zealand and Australia are the only teams with their hopes alive as all others sunk into the obscure future of unyielding hope.Keeping in touch with the recent trend, the home teams have made it the farthest (India and Sri Lanka were the finalists last time around) at the expense of countless heartbreaks. However, having made it this far, exceeding all expectations, New Zealand have their work cut out facing a formidable and rampant Australian team at the "G"As much as most neutrals will like the dream of the Blackcaps to turn into a reality, here are 5 reasons why that is more of a probability than a possibility:

#1 Haven\'t played an ODI in Australia since 2009

Some might find this really difficult to believe, but New Zealand last played an ODI in Australia in 2009. This is an even bigger surprise considering the fact that the two countries are situated near each other.

Out of the current playing XI, as many as 5 New Zealand players will be making their debut on Australian soil – on the small and petite occasion of a World Cup final. Add to it the fact that there is no practice match before the game; the players will stride out on the field straight on the eve of the game.

New Zealand have been playing all their games at home. To leave their comfort zone and play the game on a neighbouring island straight on the grandest stage of them might prove to be a daunting task indeed.

The Kiwis don’t have the best record against Australia, let alone in Australia either as evident below.

	Played	Won	Lost	NR
All matches	126	35	85	6
in Australia	60	18	38	4

#2 Tough to swing it the New Zealand way - Bat or ball

The lethal opening pair of Trent Boult and Tim Southee, hailed as one of best opening partnerships the Kiwis have ever produced are bowlers who rely on the new ball to swing and seam to snap those early wickets – a prime reason why they have done so brilliantly in the tournament so far.

However, Australian grounds and pitches are more renowned for steep bounce, fast pace and not as much swing as the adjacent island. Add to it the fact that most of these strips are drop-in pitches virtually assure us that there will be no covering of grass.

For the slightly uninitiated, for the ball swinging in the air viciously, two conditions are paramount – overcast skies and a tinge of green. While it is easy to understand why windy conditions are necessary for swing, one might wonder how a green pitch assists in lateral movement in the air.

The logic for the same is simpler than what one might expect – the grass has a tendency to hold the air around it, meaning the air gets ‘trapped’ on the strip, leading to prodigious swing off the surface. Boult and Southee might not find the conditions in Australia conducive to what they do best and if they don’t, it cripples the very foundation of their Plan A.

Very similarly, New Zealand who bank heavily on power hitting rather than grafting it for the ones and twos might not take too kindly to the gigantic Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) as opposed to the rather small grounds they have back home.

Indeed, as evident by this picture doing the rounds off late, most of the sixes would have been a six at the “G” as well. However, the psychological factor of a batsman does come into play – it is always easier to clear the rope by a fair distance when one is confident of clearing the short boundary without over hitting the cherry.

Via dotlovesdata.com

#3 Quality of opponents

The Kiwis’ own shortcomings aside, they are up against one of the most formidable sides in world cricket. Not only in their own backyard, Australia have a squad that can give the New Zealand team a tough time anywhere in the world.

Indeed, McCullum and his boys got the better of the Aussies previously in the tournament, but to do so again within a month that too away from home will be no walk in the park.

A team boasting of unmatched depth and flexibility, they have Mitchell Starc coming out at No. 10 who has a highest score of 99 in Tests. Similarly, everyone but Brad Haddin and David Warner in their XI have reasonable experience of bowling in international games. Such is the versatility the current Australian team possesses.

Not to mention that George Bailey, Mitchell Marsh and Pat Cummins are warming the bench, players who would waltzed into the first XI of most other countries. James Pattinson, Cameron White, Ryan Harris and many others couldn’t make the final 15. Indeed, the Aussies are close to repeating the utter dominance they had over the rest of the world at the beginning of the millennium.

In Darren Lehmann, they have one of the shrewdest coach in world cricket today and can safely be considered the main catalyst for the turnaround they have had after a dark transition period.

#4 Big match pressure

We often talk about the Proteas choking under pressure. However, the Kiwis are not too far behind either. In 9 World Cups preceding the on-going carnival, the Kiwis made the semi-finals in as many as six of those and won precisely zero of them – a record matched only by The Undertaker’s opponents at WrestleMania, perhaps.

The semi-final against South Africa meant that there was always going to be a team making their first appearance in a World Cup final and the New Zealanders got through devoid of any sign of choking whatsoever in the end.

These are good signs for a team that seem like they will stop at absolutely nothing. However, the final of a World Cup against their arch-rivals may not be as soothing to the mind as one would imagine.

A hundred good overs away from the World Cup will perhaps be the most nerve-wracking situation the Kiwis have ever been in. In B-Mac, they have a captain who has led from the front with unprecedented aggression – be it in the field or with the bat. Would he be able to carry on in the same tone or buckle under pressure would go a long way in determining the outcome of this epic encounter.

#5 The \"live and die by the sword\" attitude

While we just discussed the consequences of what might happen if New Zealand get bogged down under pressure, this point is a complete antonym of the former. Throughout the season, the Kiwis have played aggressive, beautiful and sublime cricket.

However, as exposed slightly in the semi-finals, they have been found wanting if the aggressiveness upfront does not lead to the results they so desire. In the previous game, had it not been for the rain, McCullum had almost exhausted all of his premier bowlers and South Africa looked set to get a score in excess of 350.

The Kiwis will have to be vary of the fact that being aggressive is, in fact, a double-edged sword. While it has been working like butter for them up till now, the slight re-adjustment when things are not going according to plan A is of paramount importance.

It would be a huge shame if the fearless cricket they have played since the start will eventually lead to their downfall. The correct mix between aggression and calmness will hold the key when the Blackcaps lock horns for the coveted trophy down under. On paper, the Aussies look superior to the Kiwis by a fair distance.

Cricket, however, is not played on paper. One good day, a few decisions working, a touch of luck richly deserved by tNew Zealand might mean they cross the final frontier and win this for their homeland, their people; change the outlook of a country where cricket is played on rugby grounds and has forever taken a backseat.