Analysing the prospects of the top ATP players at the 2014 French Open

The 2014 claycourt season started in dramatic fashion at the Monte Carlo Masters. The top favourites Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic both failed to reach the finals. While Nadal was defeated by his countryman David Ferrer in the quarterfinals, Djokovic lost to Roger Federer at the semi-final stage.The final was contested between Federer and Stanislas Wawrinka, which Wawrinka won in a tight three-set affair. It was the first Masters 1000 title for Wawrinka, building on his first Grand Slam title at the Australian Open earlier this year. For Federer, it was his fourth ATP final of 2014, which has been a big comeback of sorts for him after a lacklustre 2013.This has set us up for a riveting clay court season, with four top players capable of winning the ultimate clay prize in the Roland Garros title. What earlier appeared to be a two-way battle between Nadal and Djokovic, now sees Wawrinka and Federer in prime positions to challenge them for the title.The remaining claycourt Masters tournaments at Madrid and Rome would provide further indication as to which player is in the best position going into the French Open. Let us analyze the prospects of the top players going into the second Slam of 2014.

#1 Andy Murray, David Ferrer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and the other Usual Suspects

Apart from the top four, there are a host of players who have the firepower to defeat anyone on their best day. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the first name that comes to mind here. He defeated Federer at the quarter-final stage in the 2013 French Open, and had multiple match points against Djokovic in a nerve-wracking encounter in the 2012 quarter final. Though he can blow hot and cold at times, when in full flow, Tsonga can match up with the best of them on this surface.

Other contenders include David Ferrer, the 2013 French Open finalist, Andy Murray, a player who would be keen to improve his claycourt credentials, John Isner, one of the few guys to have ever troubled Nadal at Roland Garros, and a few others including Tomas Berdych, Alexandr Dolgopolov and Grigor Dimitrov.

I see one or two upsets coming at the hands of these players, but it is hard to see any one of them going the full stretch to win the title.

#2 Stanislas Wawrinka

Wawrinka has stunned the tennis world with his exploits in 2014. First, he surprised everyone to beat Djokovic and Nadal on the way to winning the title at the Australian Open. Then, he defeated Federer in the final of the Monte Carlo Masters to win his first Masters 1000 title.

He would undoubtedly be a key contender at the French Open 2014. His backhand has arguably been the most lethal weapon this year, and continues to make him a big threat everywhere. He has pushed Djokovic to the limit in their last three Grand Slam matches, finally triumphing at Melbourne this year. He has not lost to a top 10 player in 2014. And clay is his best playing surface if we go by his career win-loss ratios on different surfaces.

The biggest trouble for his title aspirations would come from Rafael Nadal, as his extreme and heavy topspin would send the ball miles up in the air to his single-handed backhand. The match-up is just not suitable for him, especially on claycourts, where he hasn’t won even a set off the Spaniard. But if he can avoid Nadal, or if Nadal is affected by an injury, we might just see Wawrinka winning his second Grand Slam title, thus staking his claim for further glory and greatness.

#3 Roger Federer

Roger Federer has looked like his old usual self in 2014. The old swagger is back, he seems to be moving much better, the forehand is painting the lines again, and the serve is setting up easy points for him again. He has defeated Djokovic twice already this season, and has been to the semifinals or ahead of all tournaments he has played this year, except Miami.

Federer has a great chance of adding to his title list at this year's French Open. Most people seem to forget how great a claycourt player he has been over the years. Had it not been for Nadal, he might have won five French Open titles by now, and would have been talked amongst the greatest claycourters of all time.

The Swiss has a great chance again in 2014. Nadal has looked rusty and short on confidence since his loss to Wawrinka in the Australian Open final. Even Djokovic is facing injury wobbles right now, with a right wrist issue. No one knows whether these two would be back to their best in a month’s time.

If Federer can avoid Nadal, with whom he has severe match-up issues on this surface - as all single-handed backhand players do - we might see him back on the podium holding the trophy for a second time.

#4 Novak Djokovic

Djokovic has been the most dominant player on clay, after Nadal, in the past few seasons. He lost to Nadal in a tantalising five-set encounter in the 2013 French Open 2013 semi-final. He has beaten Nadal in the finals of three claycourt Masters tournaments, and is the only player to do so.

Djokovic has both the game and the mindset to take on Nadal and beat him on clay. Unfortunately for him, injury has struck at the worst possible time. He lost to Federer in the Monte Carlo semifinal, playing with a bandaged left wrist. The wrist injury means he has to take rest for 10 days before taking stock of the wrist again.

This injury would not have come at a more wrong time for him. He looked in great rhythm, winning back-to-back Masters titles at Indian Wells and Miami, and looked set to carry that momentum into the clay season. This injury not only costs him that momentum, but may lead to doubts at key moments in the big matches.

However, knowing the great champion that he is, it would be safe to assume that he would give his best effort to be fit and in form again to launch another assault of the French Open title. And indeed, a fit Djokovic is probably the only guy who can defeat a fit Nadal on clay.

#5 Rafael Nadal

Nadal has truly been the king of claycourt tennis, displaying a streak of dominance that has never been seen before, and may never again be seen in the future. He has won eight French Open titles and 18 Masters titles on clay. He has more career claycourt titles than all the other top 10 players combined.

However, 2014 hasn’t seen the best of Nadal yet. He faced back inury issues in the Australian Open final, which he lost to Wawrinka. Ever since then, Nadal hasn’t looked the same player. His forehand seems to have lost its penetrating power, the serve seems a weakness and even his famed movement on the court has deserted him under pressure.

Nadal suffered a loss to David Ferrer at the quarterfinal stage of the Monte Carlo Masters, a place where he won eight consecutive titles from 2005 to 2012. He seemed a pale shadow of the beastly Spaniard who blows his opponents off the court on clay. His forehand often landed short, allowing Ferrer to dominate with his groundstrokes. He made around 40 unforced errors, quite unexpected of Nadal on this or any surface.

He still has some tournaments to get back his rhythm and mojo before the French Open starts. It would not be wise to read too much into this early loss, as even in 2013 he had lost in Monte Carlo to Djokovic, only to come back strong to win the French Open title for a record eighth time. Once Nadal finds his groove, he would be tough to beat for anyone on clay.

The only guy capable of giving him a run for his money on clay is Djokovic, and he himself has injury issues. The other two top guys in Federer and Wawrinka have single-handed backhands, and would find it very difficult to match up with a fully fit Nadal on this surface. And even Djokovic has a career head-to-head of 3-13 versus Nadal on clay.

If Nadal gets back his form and confidence in time, we would most likely see him lifting a ninth French Open title this June.