5 reasons why India have the best chance to win ICC World Cup 2015

History beckons for MS Dhoni's men who are only two steps away from claiming the ultimate prize yet again. If Captain Cool does manage to overcome the final two hurdles, he will become only the third captain after Clive Lloyd and Ricky Ponting to win back-to-back titles. Here, we look at 5 reasons why India are top favourites to defend their title:

#1 Australian openers are failing

Ever since Aaron Finch and David Warner put up an opening stand of 57 against England on Valentine’s Day, Australia haven’t managed to get something of value from them as a duo. Their opening partnership scores read: 30, 14, 19, 30 and 15; this is quite symptomatic of how the openers have played during the course of the World Cup.

Finch, after that blazing hundred against England, has failed to cross 30 even once. Warner has been slightly more consistent, but he has just the solitary big score of 178 to his name, that too, against first-timers Afghanistan.

In a high-pressure encounter at Sydney on Thursday, this is a huge opportunity for India to capitalise on. Yes, the Australian middle-order has been coming to the rescue and has been covering up the opening blemishes – but one can never tell. Imagine they are faced with a high target and lose both their openers early, Dhoni’s spinners will then stifle the opposition.

#2 The Sydney factor

According to AFP, nearly 42,000 Indian supporters are all set to be in attendance for the semi-final. While naysayers will try to trivialise the importance of crowd support, you should ask the South Africans what a packed house full of Indian supporters can do. They are animated, passionate and loud.

They will come in numbers and create a spectacle, which very few Australian cricketers would be accustomed to. And that is exactly why India need to make the most of this virtual “home-advantage”, because like it or not, be it while batting or fielding, if the crowd isn’t behind you, it can cause a lot of distractions, especially when you are the home team.

Secondly, the involvement of the ICC in pitch preparation has ensured that the Australians won’t get the tailor-made surface that they would have liked. And a bit of strong sunlight on Wednesday and Thursday is all that will take to make the pitch helpful for Indian spinners. This makes things interesting because barring Daniel Vettori (who they couldn’t play well at all), the Aussies haven’t really faced high quality spin-bowling that they can expect from Ravichandran Ashwin on Thursday.

#3 India\'s current form

The only strong outfit that Australia has faced till now is New Zealand. Although a freak spell by Mitchell Starc nearly got the Aussies a win there, they were not at all convincing when faced with a decent opposition. In the game against Pakistan, Australia were put under serious pressure by a bowling unit that only had Wahab Riaz as its potent weapon.

Imagine what would have happened had the Watson catch stuck or had Australia needed 20-30 more runs? And Pakistan, currently, in the absence of Junaid Khan, Saeed Ajmal and Mohammad Hafeez, are one of the under-equipped teams in world cricket.

Similarly, in their game against Sri Lanka at Sydney, Australia plundered 376 runs off a toothless Sri Lankan bowling – but they made a mess while defending it. Had Dinesh Chandimal not retired hurt, or had Kumar Sangakkara batted a little longer, the result could have swung either way.

Now contrast Pakistan and Sri Lanka with India, you’ll see how superior an outfit MS Dhoni’s boys are. Firstly, all of them are experienced, fit, in form and raring to go. And secondly, the bowling attack has been at its best, not letting batsmen get away from either end.

The Australians have looked good, but not invincible as people would like to believe.

#4 New Zealand in unfamiliar territory

This opportunity obviously kicks in if India beat Australia in the semi-final on Thursday. It would mean that Dhoni and Co. would play New Zealand in Melbourne on Sunday, and the biggest advantage that they take into the game is the benefit of being acclimatised with the conditions.

It's a fair call to say that it will be a final, and that cricket grounds are the same world over, so New Zealand have an equal chance in winning. However, might I suggest that India start that game as slight favourites.

The last time that a New Zealand team played in Australia was in 2011. The last time they played one-day cricket in Australia was in 2009. A lot of things change in 6 years. Having said that, what helps New Zealand is that at least eight members of their World Cup squad were part of that tour (even though all of them didn’t play).

India need to see this as an opportunity to attack New Zealand at their vulnerable best; the field dimensions, the conditions, and the crowd support – all will be different. Most importantly, New Zealand will be playing an away game after a long time, while India have already made Australia their second home.

#5 Captain Cool and the winning habit

Finally, India’s greatest opportunity lies with their captain. MS Dhoni has made a habit of winning ICC tournaments, and he is one person who can walk around wearing a shirt that reads ‘Been there, done that’ on the day of the knock-outs. In the seven and a half years of his captaincy, Dhoni has a World T20 title to his name, a World Cup, a Champions Trophy and a runners-up medal at the World T20.

Beyond his international outings too, he has mastered the art of winning big tournaments and withstanding pressure. How Dhoni handles his troops will be crucial in the lead up to the final, because a sense of calm is all that separates victory and defeat. There’s a lot of talk about McCullum and his attacking captaincy, but will he be able to play his cards as perfectly as Dhoni often does and that too with a poker face? That’s yet to be seen.