World T20: Semifinal scenarios - 2 spots sealed, 2 remain

3 days before the end of the group stages in World T20, we have 2 semi-finalists confirmed from either group - India and South Africa. The race for the remaining 2 spots is still on.Here are the scenarios for each team in the World T20:The cases of match being abandoned or a tie are not included in this scenario. If such an event takes place, the scenarios will be updated accordingly.

#1 South Africa

Starting with the Group 1 first,

South Africa have sealed a semi-final spot after beating England by 3 runs. However, with one match remaining between Sri Lanka and New Zealand, they will end up 2nd in the group, with both teams having a Net Run Rate superior than the Proteas.

They will face either India or West Indies in the semi-finals.

#2 Sri Lanka/New Zealand

It's a straightforward battle between Sri Lanka and New Zealand for the 2nd semi-final spot in Group 1. Their fixture on 31st March at Chittagong is a virtual quarter-final which will decide who qualifies for the knockout stages of World T20.

England and Netherlands are both out of the tournament and will play a dead rubber on the same day.

#3 India

Group 2

India became the first team to qualify for semi-finals in World T20, being the only unbeaten team in the tournament so far. The only team which can topple it from the top of the group is West Indies, which has a superior run-rate than India, but only if India loses to Australia and West Indies win against Pakistan.

If India tops the group, it will face South Africa in the semis, given the fact that other teams fighting for the semi-final spot in that group have a net run-rate way better than SA.

However, if India ends up second in the group, it will face either Sri Lanka or New Zealand in the semi-final.

#4 West Indies

With 2 wins in 3 matches, the defending world champions are the frontrunners to seal the other semifinal spot in Group 2 after India. They play their last match against Pakistan, which can end up being a virtual quarter-final if Pakistan win against Bangladesh today.

If Pakistan beat Bangladesh, West Indies and Pakistan will be tied on 4 points and will have the semi-final spot to play for in their fixture on 1st April at Dhaka.

However, if Pakistan lose against Bangladesh today, West Indies (+1.223), with a significantly higher run-rate than Pakistan (+0.077) will only need to avoid a humongous loss against them on 1st April.

#5 Pakistan

With 1 win and 1 loss from their 2 matches, Pakistan need to win their remaining 2 matches to qualify for semifinals. They cannot afford to lose a single match as they lag in the Net Run Rate against West Indies.

If they beat Bangladesh today, their clash against West Indies on 1st April will become a virtual quarter-final.

If they lose to Bangladesh and win against West Indies, and if Australia win their remaining 2 matches, the semifinalist will then be decided on the basis of Net Run Rate between Pakistan, West Indies and Australia.

#6 Australia

With 2 losses in 2 close matches, Australia will consider themselves unlucky to be in this spot. They are virtually out of the race, but if a few results go their way, and if they register some extremely one-sided wins in their remaining matches, they have a very faint chance to make it to the next stage.

Their biggest hope remains today's Pakistan vs Bangladesh match. If Pakistan win today, Australia will be out of the tournament. Against all hopes, they will have to pray that Bangladesh beat Pakistan today, and then Pakistan in turn, defeat West Indies on 1st April.

If either of the two doesn't happen, they will be kicked out.

Even with these two favourable results, Australia will have a huge challenge in front of them to improve their poor Net Run Rate (-0.503). They will have to do something miraculous to overcome the NRR of West Indies (+1.223) and Pakistan (+0.077).

With a match against a rampant India left, it all looks highly unlikely for Australia.

#7 Bangladesh

Bangladesh are in the same boat as Australia, and their chances are worsened with a poorer Net Run Rate (-2.204).

Theoretically, they'll have to beat Pakistan and Australia, hope for Pakistan to beat West Indies, and in the meanwhile, somehow get a NRR higher than West Indies and Pakistan.

Well, it's fair to say, it's all over for the hosts in World T20.