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ATP World Tour Finals 2016: What does Andy Murray need to do to be the year-end No. 1?

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A look at the numbers and how many points Novak Djokovic needs to keep the World No. 1 title.

LONDON, ENGLAND - NOVEMBER 10:  Andy Murray of Great Britain, Novak Djokovic of Serbia, Stan Wawrinka of Switzerland, Milos Raonic of Canada, Kei Nishikori of Japan, Gael Monfils of France, Marin Cilic of Croatia, Dominic Thiem of Austria pose for a picture outside the Cutty Sark on November 10, 2016 in London, England. The world's best eight singles players gather at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals Official Launch, presented by Moet & Chandon. The ATP's season finale takes place from 13-20 November at The O2, London.  (Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images)
In the race among the Final 8 it is truly a fight between Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic for top spot

After spending nearly 7 years as the World No. 2, Andy Murray this year earned the title of World No. 1 after Novak Djokovic crashed out in a straight sets quarterfinal encounter to Marin Cilic at the recently concluded BNP Paribas Masters in Paris-Bercy. 

Murray, who would go on to win the title in Paris-Bercy, is now in top spot with 11, 185 points, while Djokovic is at 10,780, giving the Scot a 405 point lead, which although substantial considering Djokovic’s 8,000 point lead early in the season, is not much given Djokovic has a quick chance to make it up. 

Defending 1,500 points here as opposed to Murray, who is defending only 200 at this tournament as a result of his single win in the Round Robin stages of the the tournament to David Ferrer in 2015.

On the back of form alone, one would expect Murray to win the tournament, and he is considered the favourite to win, with odds of 5/4 on him, with Djokovic’s lower at 11/8. 

Murray’s next goal, now that he has in fact seized the top ranking, will be to end the year as World No. 1; after becoming the first Briton in the Open Era to even gain that ranking, he will want to set the same record as a year-end No. 1. Djokovic has held that title four times in the past, and for the past two years consecutively, which Murray will look to change. 

Given that the Serb’s points deficit is still quite low, it is still Murray on the back foot here in terms of making up his ranking. It’s given that Djokovic will have to be on his toes to successfully win the tournament, but here’s a look at how exactly he will get there. 

Crunching the numbers:

Here’s a look at the points up for grabs:

EMIRATES ATP RANKINGS POINTS (SINGLES & DOUBLES) 
ROUND-ROBIN MATCH WIN200
SEMI-FINAL WIN400
FINAL WIN500
UNDEFEATED CHAMPION1500
 

Possible Scenarios 

Best Case for all: 

Murray and Djokovic win all their round-robin matches, giving them 600 points apiece. That would ideally put them both at the top of their respective groups – Andy Murray in Group John McEnroe, and Djokovic in Group Ivan Lendl. 

That means they would each play the No. 2 player in the opposite group, ostensibly setting up a final clash. 

Should Djokovic go into the finals undefeated and win, he will win 1,500 points – putting him at 12,280 points. Murray would have 200 for each Round Robin match – giving him 600, plus a further 400 for a semi-final win, ergo 1000 points. That puts Murray at 12,185 points – only 35 points behind Djokovic, and thus losing the title to the Serb. 

Best case for Murray:

Djokovic may be struggling with form but given his draw is still likely to come out on top in his group. None of the other players in his group – Milos Raonic, Dominic Thiem or Gael Monfils – have ever beaten him. Although Monfils has been quite the thorn in Djokovic’s side, Raonic made his first Grand Slam final this year, and Thiem has steadily enjoyed a strong move up the ranks, none of them have ever had a win over the Serb. 

This year, Monfils appeared to possibly have been a good match against Djokovic at the US Open, but appeared to have tanked the pair’s semi-final. Should he be able to push for form, Monfils could be the one to beat Djokovic, meaning Djokovic would win 400 points in the Round Robin stage. Should he he subsequently go on to win the semi-finals and the finals, he would have 400+900, or 1,300 points at the end, giving him a total of 12,085. 

If at the same time, Murray takes all three wins in his group, giving him 600 points there, and wins his semi-final but loses out on the final, he will have 1000 points in all from the tournament, putting him at 12,185 points – 100 clear of Djokovic, meaning even if Murray does not win the title, he could still retain the World No. 1 title.

That said, this might be difficult given Murray’s is the tougher draw; the Briton will be up again Marin Cilic, Stan Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori – all of whom have been a thorn in his side over his career. To add to this, Cilic won his debut ATP 500 title at the Swiss Indoors in Basel this year, Wawrinka won his third Grand Slam title at the US Open with a win over defending champion Djokovic, and Thiem has made an incredibly quick climb up the rankings. 

It is definitely an easier draw for Djokovic this time around, but Murray has the advantage of both physical and mental form at the moment; Djokovic will undoubtedly go down in history as one of the most skilled tennis players in the history of the sport and still quite an unbeatable player, but his struggles have meant that the Serb needs to build up on self-confidence – something that has always been a key factor in his game. The issue has plagued players of Djokovic’s level and calibre in the past and let them down as well, key among them Rafael Nadal. 

Simply put, Djokovic will have to outplay Murray – and everyone else – at the World Tour – to be able to seal the deal as World No. 1 for a third year running, and it’s looking a lot like Andy Murray’s year to do it and break yet another milestone.


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