Australian Open 2014: Understanding the finer points of the men's singles draw

Novak Djokovic is the favourite to win his fourth straight Australian Open title this year.

The five ATP events leading up to the Australian Open this year threw up quite a few movers and shakers. There were some solid performances by the old guard, the ones whom we had almost forgotten, there were a few shaky demonstrations by ones on whom expectations were the most, and then there were a few surprises that caught us unaware.

There is an added sense of expectancy with the stakes having been raised by the recent reshuffling of coaching responsibilities in the teams of key players, including two of the ‘Big Four’. The doors of possibilities in the Australian Open draw have thus been thrown wide open despite the imbalance and unevenness, favouring certain players over the rest which in turn leads to quite an intriguing breakdown of the 2014 Australian Open draw.

Top Half

First Quarter

If Rafa wins the Australian Open this year, he will be the first player since Rod Laver to have completed the Grand Slam victory twice.

The two biggest names that headline this quarter are Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin del Potro. Between them are the likes of Bernard Tomic, Milos Raonic and Grigor Dimitrov – the new-gen talent, so to speak. And interspersed among these are threats in the form of Lleyton Hewitt, Kei Nishikori, Benoit Paire and Gael Monfils.

By no means an easy quarter this; each successive match in this quarter seems to take the level of difficulty higher, not unlike a video game with ascending levels of toughness. Top seed Nadal will take on Australian hopes and Sydney runner-up Tomic with a possible third round match-up between his Doha final’s opponent, Monfils and a fourth round match-up against Brisbane winner, Hewitt.

On the other hand, the towering Argentine will face a qualifier in the first round and in all likelihood will face Spaniard Roberto Bautista-Agut in the second round. 27th seed Paire will be the most likely third round opponent for Del Potro with either 11th seed Raonic or 22nd seed Dimitrov to face against him in the pre-quarter finals.

Quarter-final Prediction: Rafael Nadal to win over Juan Martin Del Potro in four sets

Second Quarter

Making a less-than-sure comeback after injury, Andy Murray still remains a hot player in the Australian Open draw.

Making a comeback after injury, Andy Murray still remains a hot player in the Australian Open draw

The bottom quarter of the top half has an equally tricky outfield as the top quarter. It’s the quarter that contains three-time finalist Andy Murray and four-time Australian Open champion Roger Federer along with a few assorted names like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, John Isner and Marin Cilic. 18th seed Gilles Simon who also featured in this quarter became the latest player to withdraw from the event after sustaining an ankle injury. His place in the tournament is to be taken by fellow Frenchman Stephane Robert, who will be the ‘Lucky Loser’ making it into the main draw.

The still recuperating Andy Murray may have cautioned his fans about the expectations placed on him. But these cautions from his side haven’t really acted as a downer as far as his fans’ hopes are concerned. The Scot will take on Japanese No. 2 Go Soeda in his opening round before facing a qualifier in the second. Either 26th seed Feliciano Lopez or unseeded Michael Llodra could be Murray’s opponent in the third round, with 13th seed and Auckland winner Isner the most likely opponent to play against him in the fourth round.

The Swiss meanwhile, will open against Aussie James Duckworth in his first round with a possible second round match against Czech Radek Stephanek. Unseeded Sergiy Stakhovsky or 31st seed Fernando Verdasco could be Federer’s potential third-round opponent with Tsonga laying the final road-block for Federer at the start of the second week in the pre-quarters.

Quarter-final Prediction: Roger Federer to win over Andy Murray in five sets

Second Half

Third Quarter

Underdog David Ferrer will have a lot to prove at the Australian Open

Third seed David Ferrer and seventh seed Tomas Berdych are the top seeds featuring in this quarter. Other prominent names include Tommy Haas, Jerzy Janowicz, Mikhail Youzhny and Alexandr Dolgopolov.

At the top half of the quarter, Berdych will start his Australian Open campaign against Kazakh player Aleksandr Nedovyesov. His second round opponent will either be Frenchman Kenny de Schepper or wild card entrant Wu Di. Super-serving Ivo Karlovic could be Berdych’s opponent in the third round while a possible encounter against 12th seed Haas looms large for the Czech in the fourth round.

Columbian Alejandro Gonzalez will face Ferrer in the opening round at the bottom half of this quarter. The Spaniard’s second round match-up could be against either Frenchman Adrian Mannarino or American Steve Johnson, with a possible third round match against Dolgopolov or 29th seed Jeremy Chardy. 14th seed Mikhail Youzhny or 20th seed Jerzy Janowicz are the toss-up guys for Ferrer to play against in the fourth round, an interesting prospect considering that both players haven’t had the perfect of starts to their ’14 season.

Quarter-final Prediction: Tomas Berdych to win over David Ferrer in straight sets

Fourth Quarter

Stanislas Wawrinka and Novak Djokovic could meet up in the quarter-final in a potential rematch of their 2013 Australian Open fourth round epic.

Where the top half seem to have the trickiest match-ups possible, the bottom half of the men’s singles draw at the Australian Open seems to have very little as far as challenges are concerned. Stanislas Wawrinka and Novak Djokovic are the undoubted top picks in this quarter. Other names that dot this 32-member playing field include Ernests Gulbis, Vasek Pospisil, Richard Gasquet and Fabio Fognini.

Chennai Open winner Wawrinka will take on Andrey Golubev in the first round with a possible third round match against Nicholas Mahut or 28th seed Pospisil. The Swiss could have a tough battle on his hands in the fourth round against anyone amongst Gasquet, Davydenko and Tommy Robredo.

Amongst the ‘Big Four’, it’s Novak Djokovic who’s coming into the tournament with no match practice in any ATP tournament. But his aura of superiority at the Australian Open makes him the favourite to defend his title for the fourth straight time. The Serb’s opening round will be against Lukas Lacko of Slovakia. Unpredictable Cypriot Marcus Baghdatis could be Djokovic’s opponent in the third round with a possible pre-quarter final against 15th seed Fognini or 23th seed Gulbis.

Quarter-final Prediction: Novak Djokovic to win over Stanislas Wawrinka in four sets

Beyond the quarters