Analysing the phenomenon that is Rafael Nadal: Is he the greatest player of all time?

Rafael Nadal celebrates his victory at the 2014 French Open

Rafael Nadal has changed the course of tennis history in a way that no other player before him has. He has raised the physicality of tennis to a different level altogether. Other players like Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray have taken the lead from him and their defensive skills are a testimony to the tennis played in today’s times. It was Nadal who started it all.

Rafa started his tennis journey under the tutelage of his uncle, Toni Nadal, at the tender age of three. He showing great potential from an early age, winning an under-12 boys’ tournament at the age of 8. He climbed the ATP rankings very quickly, and was ranked in the top 50 just two years into his pro career. At Roland Garros in 2005, he became the first teenager to win a Grand Slam since Pete Sampras won the US Open in 1990, aged 19.

When Rafa emerged on the tennis scene, Roger Federer was the king of men’s tennis, and he had dominated the men’s game like no one else in tennis history. But Nadal beat Federer on the hard courts of Miami in their first ever encounter, when he was merely 17. It was clear from the beginning that Rafa was not intimidated by Federer the way most of the other players were.

The Spaniard beat Federer four times in a row from 2005 to 2008 at the French Open, building up a dominance over him on clay. However the biggest turning point of their rivalry was the Wimbledon 2008 final, which Nadal won in five sets. Many tennis experts and critics rate that match as the greatest tennis match in history. By defeating Federer, Nadal ended the Swiss maestro’s streak of five consecutive Wimbledon titles and 65 straight match wins on grass.

After that Nadal again beat Federer in the final of the 2009 Australian Open. Federer seems to have developed a psychological barrier against Nadal since then, and has not been able to defeat him in a Grand Slam match since 2007. Their head to head in Grand Slams is a domineering 9-2 in favour of Nadal. The overall head to head reads 23-10 in favour of Nadal. To do so against a player many consider to be the greatest player of all time, and someone who has won 17 Grand Slam titles, is simply astounding.

Nadal completed his career Grand Slam by beating Djokovic in the 2010 US Open finals; at 24, he was the youngest player to do so in the Open era.

The Spaniard faced the biggest challenge of his career in the year 2011 in the form of Novak Djokovic. The Serb beat him in seven finals in a row and for the first time, Nadal looked vulnerable. Djokovic wasn’t troubled by Nadal’s vicious topspin and his double-handed backhand, which many consider to be the greatest backhand in history, seemed to neutralise Nadal’s forehand.

Nadal lost the No. 1 ranking to Djokovic. For the first time, it looked as if Nadal had no answer to an opponent. However, he came back to beat Djokovic in the final of the 2012 French Open, which was a big match in historical terms. Djokovic was gunning to win all four Grand Slam titles in a row and if he had won, he would have beaten Nadal in the finals of all four Grand Slam tournaments in a row. However, Nadal won the match and was able to stop his downslide against Djokovic.

After 2012 Wimbledon, Nadal faced knee issues which kept him out of the game for almost eight months. Most people wondered if he could ever make a comeback from that. And even if he came back, would he be able to compete at the highest level ever again? But Nadal came back stronger than ever and had arguably the best year of his career in 2013, where he won 5 ATP Masters titles and two Grand Slams and regained the number 1 ranking from Djokovic. He beat Djokovic in the French Open semifinal and the US Open final to regain ascendancy in the rivalry.

To do that against a mental giant like Djokovic showed the true mettle of Nadal. The US Open final was a reminder of why Nadal is considered to be mentally the strongest player ever in tennis history. He was lagging Djokovic 4-4, 0-40 on his own serve in the third set, with the first two sets shared between the two. Nadal saved all the break points and broke Djokovic in a stunning display of tennis in the next game to win the third set.

John McEnroe, who was doing commentary for the match, described it as daylight robbery. Djokovic was simply stunned and couldn’t recover from that. Nadal won the fourth set 6-1 to win his 13th Grand Slam title. His overall head-to-head in Grand Slams against Djokovic stood at 8-3 after this match. Shortly afterwards, Nadal regained the number 1 ranking, which he still retains at the moment.

During a commentary stint at Wimbledon 2013, John McEnroe commented:

“This guy is to me, I think you can make an argument right here and now, the greatest player that ever lived. If you look at his record against [Andy] Murray, [Roger] Federer, and [Novak] Djokovic, it’s way better than that. He won the Olympics. He’s got Davis Cups, which Roger doesn’t have. I have always said Roger Federer to me was the greatest player that ever lived, certainly the most beautiful player. But I’m going to tell you right here and now there’s a definite argument, I’m starting to lean toward Rafa.”

The Rafael Nadal forehand – a force of nature

McEnroe’s sentiments were echoed by another former US Open champion, Boris Becker. “I thought Roger’s record would never be broken but the man from Spain is getting awfully close. If Nadal stays healthy until he’s 30, he’s going to get to 17.”

That tally now appears well within touching distance and Novak Djokovic, his biggest rival has said: “13 Grand Slams for a guy who is 27 years old is incredible. He still has a lot of years to play.”

It is not only his record that stands out, but also his fighting abilities. He has fought back multiple times against serious injuries to return back to No. 1. He has fought back against his biggest rival Djokovic and turned the tables on their rivalry. He has defeated everyone on the tennis circuit in the biggest tournaments, and holds a positive head-to-head against all the current top 32 players in the world. Such domination was unheard of earlier in tennis history.

Nadal’s detractors state that his head-to-head records are that good because of clay results. The hollowness of this argument never ceases to amaze me. It’s almost made out as though clay doesn’t count as a tennis surface. But even if we discount his clay results, Nadal still holds positive head-to-heads over Federer and Murray both, and has defeated Novak Djokovic on the hard courts of US Open twice to win titles there.

If we look at his biggest records, those include the best ever winning percentage in history of professional tennis (all surfaces combined) at 83.72% and best ever win-loss ratio on clay (293-21) at 93.30%. He is also the only player to win eight Grand Slam titles at a single venue (French Open).

In every “Greatest Of All Time” conversation, the players that are talked about include Federer, Rod Laver, Sampras, Borg and Nadal. Amongst these, it can be argued that Nadal had to face the toughest competition, having had to contend with Federer since the beginning and Djokovic and Murray ever since. Comparatively, Federer did not face such quality opponents in the initial stages of his domination.

Sampras was great on fast surfaces, but couldn’t win any big titles on clay. His failure to win the French Open remains a big blot on his resume. The same applies for Bjorn Borg who couldn’t win any hard court Slam. And Rod Laver didn’t compete against the very best players of his time for a major chunk of his career (he won his first calendar Grand Slam in 1962 as an amateur, which means the very top players who had gone pro were barred from competing in the Majors at that time).

Deciding conclusively who is the greatest player ever on hard courts or on grass is impossible to do, as no one player is much ahead of his nearest competitors. On hard courts, Jimmy Connors has the highest winning percentage of 82.61%, while the players ranked fourth and fifth, Djokovic and Federer respectively, have winning percentages of 82.35% and 82.34% respectively. If we look at grass, Federer has the highest winning percentage of 87.14%, followed closely by John McEnroe at 85.61%.

However if we look at clay, the highest winning percentage belongs to Nadal at 92.86%, which is more than 6% points above the second-placed Bjorn Borg’s winning percentage of 86.58%. Nadal has won nine French Open titles and 19 Masters titles in total on clay so far, and still has a possible four years of playing career left. Clearly, Nadal is the greatest clay courter of all time, and his clay records might not be broken in a 1,000 years or more.

Looking ahead, if Nadal stays healthy and injury-free, he would most likely reach Federer’s current Grand Slam tally of 17. That would make it difficult for even the most ardent Federer fans to deny Nadal’s supremacy over Federer. And his claim to the G.O.A.T (Greatest of All Time) title would be unquestionable.

If Nadal stays healthy, he will undoubtedly write many more golden chapters in tennis history.