After a glitch at Monte Carlo, where fatigue was a bigger villain than his opponent, Novak Djokovic steadied his clay run by winning Madrid. By beating Nadal in straight sets in a rollicking quarter-final at Rome, he further fortified his supremacy on clay. Djokovic was a step away from the Career Slam on three occasions – 2012, 2014 and 2015 – but fell short. Will this French Open be his last chance in completing the Career Slam, a feat that would catapult him to a new high in the G.O.A.T debate?
Novak Djokovic has been scripting new chapters in his success story this season. Winning the sixth Australian Open title in January, bagging the third consecutive Indian Wells-Miami double and surpassing Roger Federer in career prize money, the Serb is a man on a mission. His failure to add a title at Roland Garros is a blip in an otherwise impressive resume.
Only seven male players in the history of tennis have achieved a Career Slam – Fred Perry, Don Budge, Rod Laver, Roy Emerson, Andre Agassi, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. It is interesting to note that four of these seven players completed their Career Slams by clinching the French Open. Two of the three players in the Open Era – Agassi and Federer – added their maiden French Open title to achieve the feat.
Djokovic is close to a ‘cut-off’ age
Only three players in the Open Era have lifted their maiden French Open after the age of 30. While Andres Gimeno of Spain and Andres Gomez of Ecuador emerged victorious on the red dirt in 1972 (at 37 years) and 1990 (at 30 years) respectively, the current Swiss No.2 and the reigning French Open Champion Stan Wawrinka fulfilled his potential on clay last year at the age of 31.
Gomez and Gimeno never won another Slam in their careers.
In comparison, Djokovic has 11 Grand Slams and has come close to winning the French Open on three occasions. He will turn 29 just before this year’s French Open. His contemporaries, Federer and Nadal, have never gone past the Quarter Finals at the French Open since they turned 29. Rafael Nadal, who holds a record 9 French Open titles, won his last Coupe des Mousquetaires at the age of 28.
John Newcombe, Roger Federer, Jimmy Connors, Pete Sampras, Rod Laver, Arthur Ashe, Andre Agassi and Ken Rosewall did win a Grand Slam after the age of 29, but never at Roland Garros. The grind on clay contributes immensely to the wear and tear of the body. Nadal, who has been the undisputed ‘King of Clay’ for a decade, has tasted defeat at the hands of many rising stars and young guns in the last couple of years.
Djokovic has been in his prime for the past two seasons or more. Going forward his body may not be able to hold up as well it has so far. Age spares no one. Ask Federer, Nadal and Williams.
Djokovic vis-à-vis Career Slam holders in the Open Era
Andre Agassi’s flailing career was resurrected by Brad Gilbert in the late 90’s. The American had won just three Slams before completing the Career Grand Slam at Roland Garros. On his 11th appearance in 1999, Agassi added the French Open to his kitty. At 29, Agassi still had a lot of tennis left in him as injuries had derailed his career in his mid 20’s.
A week away from turning 29, Djokovic currently has 7 Grand Slams more than Agassi and 4 less than Federer had at the same age. He is 3 Slams behind his contemporary Rafael Nadal. This would be the Serb’s 12th appearance at Roland Garros. Unlike Agassi he has squeezed every ounce of potential he has had in him in his 20’s.
Agassi and Federer won at Roland Garros on their 11th appearance, while Nadal completed his Career Slam at the US Open on his 8th appearance.
As compared to the other three Champions in the Open Era, Djokovic’s triangle is the largest. The larger it gets, the probability of completing his Career Slam goes down.
Is clay the trickiest surface of them all?
Ten greats – Pete Sampras, Jimmy Connors, John Newcombe, Arthur Ashe, Boris Becker, Stefan Edberg Ken Rosewall, Guillermo Vilas, Ivan Lendl and Mats Wilander – have won three out of four Grand Slams. While Rosewall, Vilas, Lendl and Wilander missed out on adding Wimbledon in their illustrious careers, Sampras, Connors, Newcombe, Ashe, Becker and Edberg failed to win the French Open.
Djokovic currently finds himself in the same category as his coach Becker. However, he has fared far better than Becker and the other five Champions at Roland Garros. Only Edberg managed to reach a final at Roland Garros in 1989. None of the other five stalwarts of the Sport earned themselves a berth in the Finals. Djokovic’s three semi-final and three final appearances at Roland Garros prove that he has handled the surface far better than his elite company.
Djokovic’s game is more complete as he relishes the long grueling battles on clay as much as the rapid-fire tennis on grass and other relatively quick surfaces. Having amassed a good number of titles on clay, the Serb should be able to crack a winning formula at this year’s French Open.
Three focus areas for Djokovic at Paris in 2016
Keep his matches short in Week 1
The Serb has all the necessary weapons in his arsenal to tame any opponent – inside and outside the top 10.
All his matches in the recently concluded Rome Masters were very tough. Djokovic’s supreme athleticism and his Champion mindset got him out of jail in most of his matches.
Djokovic was stretched by Stephane Roberts in his opening round. In the third round, he got bageled by Thomas Bellucci in the first set before winning the next two sets by dropping just five games. After an epic quarter-final clash against Nadal that lasted over two hours, Djokovic took down Kei Nishikori in the semi-final in a three-hour tussle.
With hardly any gas left in his tank, he lost to Murray in straight sets in the finale.
Fatigue has been Djokovic’s old foe. It did catch up with the World No.1 at Monte Carlo Masters 2016, resulting in a loss in the opening round. In the finals of the French Open 2015, apart from Stan Wawrinka’s dominant display of tennis, the fatigue due to the long grueling semi-final against Andy Murray had a role to play in Djokovic’s heartbreaking rout.
This year he should conserve his energy for the latter rounds by keeping his initial matches as short as possible.
Draw first blood and march on
Djokovic has a phenomenal winning percentage of 95 when he has won the first set.
He is always the first to burst out of the blocks and make his intent very clear to his opponent. From then on he is like a Ninja chasing down every ball and tearing down the opponent’s defense.
At the Rome Masters, he did falter and looked out of sorts against Thomas Belluci and Kei Nishikori. He cannot afford to do the same in a 5 set format. Drawing first blood would be very vital in keeping his initial outings crisp.
Watch out for ‘Jack in the box’
Last year, Stan was the underdog in the French Open final. Despite losing the first set, the Swiss bamboozled his way out of trouble to bring home his maiden title on the red dirt. This year, Wawrinka is far from his best as he is yet to reach a final, let alone win titles, on clay.
Could Andy Murray play ‘Jack’ this year?
The Scot leads in the ATP Performance Zone Index‘s winning percentage on clay over the past 52 weeks. His improvement on clay is so mighty impressive that he is ahead of Rafael Nadal in the win-loss index. With a winning percentage of 88.9, four percentage points ahead of Novak Djokovic, Murray has beaten both Nadal and Djokovic on clay.
The semi-final appearance at Monte Carlo, Runner Up at Madrid and his first title at Rome would have bolstered his confidence further. Wrestling back to the World No.2 Ranking, which he had briefly ceded to Roger Federer, would ensure that Murray will not meet Djokovic before the final.
Though he parted ways with coach Amelie Mauresmo, she has left a lasting impact on Murray. He is far more calm and collected on court, a trait that could do wonders for him and spell doom for his competition.
There are no second thoughts about Novak Djokovic being the favorite at this year’s Roland Garros. History beckons the Serb to shatter old records and make new ones for the sport. He has been so invincible this season that even injuries, if any, had to be self-inflicted.
At the cusp of crossing a $100 million in career earnings, the Career Slam, if achieved, could not have come at a better time.
Until 5th June 2016, Idemo Nole!
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