His favourite surface of clay has already re-ignited the fire in the nine-time French Open winner Rafael Nadal. At the Monte Carlo Masters and at Barcelona Open, the Spaniard gave ample evidence of that as he surged to a 10-match unbeaten streak.
Rafa’s growing confidence on the terre battue is a cause of concern for any of his rivals but will that be enough to consume the World No. 1 Novak Djokovic or even rattle him? The Serb, after all, did lose his only match on clay this year to a much lower-ranked Jiri Vesely at Monaco. How much repercussion will that defeat have on the Djokovic juggernaut especially when Nadal is looking more and more like his old, fiery self?
That’s the question on every tennis aficionado’s lips. We try to find that out as we take a detailed look at next week’s Madrid Masters draw.
First quarter
The 2011 titlist Djokovic returns to Caja Magica after a gap of two years with the hope of gaining some momentum that will set him up for the elusive French Open title. He does have some tricky clay exponents in his quarter of the draw but they are surely not tricky enough to show him the door. Besides, the high altitude of the Spanish capital contributes to it being the fastest of all the major European claycourt stops and that is something the Serb should enjoy.
His first opponent will be the winner of the duel between Nicolas Almagro and Borna Coric, both of whom has had success at Estoril Open this week but that can also mean they will be pretty worn out due to their exertions. In the third round, the Serb is likely to be up against Feliciano Lopez for whom the red dirt is not a comfortable surface.
11th seed Milos Raonic or seventh seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga awaits in the quarters. Both can push the Serb but that would probably help the top seed to become more battle-hardened before reaching the business end.
Semi-finalist: Novak Djokovic
Second quarter
This part of the draw is bound to test how prepared fourth seed Stan Wawrinka is for defending his French Open title late in the summer. Ideally, the faster clay is not the Swiss’s desired surface and he has not been able to back up his run to the 2013 final as he managed to win just one match in the following two years.
His 2016 draw doesn’t look too promising either with the Estoril semi-finalist Nick Kyrgios looming as his opening round opponent. Philipp Kohlschreiber, if he manages to recover from his title-winning run at Munich, could be quite a challenge and so is the Monte Carlo runner-up Gael Monfils.
The 2014 runner-up Kei Nishikori is Stan’s potential quarter-final rival. The Swiss does lead the head-to-head record 3-1 but the Japanese has looked at home on clay and has also reached the Barcelona final, a performance that is undoubtedly confidence-boosting.
Semi-finalist: Kei Nishikori
Third quarter
Everybody’s favourite ‘Fedal’ encounter is waiting to unfold in the quarter-finals as both the former champions Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have been placed in this section. Can anybody prevent that from happening?
The answer is yes, the Fedal encounter doesn’t look a certainty due to two factors – talented clay customers and Federer’s own form. His run to the Monte Carlo quarter-finals might have masked his lack of match fitness but in reality, he still does need time as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga showed during his ouster of the 17-time Grand Slam winner.
After opening against the winner of the Joao Sousa vs Nicolas Mahut match, the third seed would be squaring off against one of these names – Dominic Thiem, Benoit Paire and Juan Martin del Potro. The 22-year-old Austrian Thiem looks the likeliest candidate but he has to overcome Del Potro first. The 14th seed is definitely the player to watch this season, having piled 29 wins already. Despite that, it might not be easy for him to be ready after his roller-coaster three-set loss to Kohlschreiber in the Munich final.
On the other hand, the fifth seed Nadal has been presented with a milder path. Even though Viktor Troicki and David Goffin can test him, they are unlikely to overpower the resurgent four-time winner.
Semi-finalist: Rafael Nadal
Fourth quarter
Andy Murray has never been in a situation before where he had to defend a clay Masters title. The unfamiliarity can either create an extra pressure on the second seed or the memories from last year can motivate him to elevate his level. After reaching the Monte Carlo semi-finals two weeks back, Murray would certainly hope the latter happens and gives him a big push ahead of his least successful Slam.
The road is not as hassle-free as the Scot would have liked. After starting against Vasek Pospisil, Istanbul finalist Grigor Dimitrov or Estoril finalist Pablo Carreno Busta or 16th seed Gilles Simon can pose a threat to the two-time Major champion.
Nevertheless, Murray can still come through this part as he looks to prevail over the inconsistent Tomas Berdych or the oft-injured David Ferrer in the last-eight.
Semi-finalist: Andy Murray
Semi-finals: Djokovic def Nishikori, Nadal def Murray
Final: The answer to the above-mentioned inevitable question is still a no. It is true that Nadal has been becoming a bigger force in the past couple of weeks but there are still blips in his performances now and then. And that is not good enough to overcome the lofty Djokovic barrier.
Prediction: Djokovic def Nadal
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