Monte Carlo Masters: An analysis of the chances of the Big Four

Monte Carlo masters
The picturesque setting of the Monte Carlo masters
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With the azure skies kissing the cobalt-blue Mediterranean in the distance, the setting for the Monte Carlo Masters looks straight out of a dream. There cannot be an event more picturesque and inviting than this to kickstart the clay season.

Excitement will naturally be high as this is the road that culminates in the season’s second Grand Slam in Paris. How will the ATP’s famed Big Four fare? Will there be a blip in Novak Djokovic’s form? Can the ‘King of Clay’ Rafael Nadal look ominous once again?

We take a detailed look at the revered quartet’s chances:

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic Monte Carlo
Novak Djokovic speaks with journalists during media day during Day One of the ATP Monte Carlo Masters.

Irrepressible. Unstoppable. Invincible.

No challenge has been big enough to thwart him. No opponent has been intimidating enough to stop him. The Novak Djokovic juggernaut simply continues to roll on.

Instead of waiting to see who will emerge the winner at a certain tournament, these days it’s more of a wait to see who can stretch the Serb to three sets, if at all.

But here’s a twist to that success story. For all his versatility, the World No. 1 still has not been able to crown himself the king of the most prestigious clay tournament – the French Open. Given his continued mastery of every event, it’s probably just a matter of time before he is able to conquer even that.

Nevertheless, that glaring hole in his resume does indeed present a glimmer of hope to his peers. Can they do any damage this week to the Monte Carlo resident?

Djokovic shouldn’t really have anything to worry about till the quarter-finals. He starts against the winner of the contest between the 55th ranked Jiri Vesely and World No. 52 Teymuraz Gabashvili. The Miami and Indian Wells quarter-finalist Gael Monfils could test him with his funky shots in the Round of 16 but the top seed certainly knows how to subdue such players.

His quarter-final opponent will be one from a heavily loaded part of the draw that sees the likes of Indian Wells and Miami semi-finalist David Goffin, the 2013 French Open runner-up David Ferrer and the rising star Alexander Zverev.

Third seed Roger Federer is slated to meet him in the semi-finals in his first competition since his surgery.

The road apparently looks smooth enough for the 11-time Slam winner to make a successful defense of his crown and lay down an early marker for the elusive French Open title.

Andy Murray

Andy Murray Monte Carlo tennis
Andy Murray speaks with journalists during media day during day One of the ATP Monte Carlo Masters.

With a bucketful of points to defend from his Madrid Masters win and a semi-final appearance at the French Open last year, second seed Andy Murray has a lot on his plate and a very unfamiliar situation to deal with. This is the first time that there will be burgeoning expectations from the Scot on his least favourite surface.

Since he reached the Australian Open final in January, he very much flattered to deceive on his return to the Tour post his daughter’s birth. Two early exits followed from two of the most elite stops – Indian Wells and Miami. Perhaps it was a repercussion of the emotional changes going on in his life and that is understandable.

But now, Murray should be back in full flow. Would we be able to witness that inspiring and energized brand of tennis on clay that he so held us in awe with last year?

The draw that he has been blessed with should present him a chance to do it. Doubles exponent Pierre-Hugues Herbert in his opener and 16th seed Benoit Paire – his potential Round of 16 rival – are opponents he can negotiate easily.

His first big test is supposed to come in the form of either Tomas Berdych or Milos Raonic in the last eight. Murray has won his last three encounters against both of them which should boost his confidence to aim for a semi-final berth.

Eight-time champion Rafael Nadal or 2014 winner Stan Wawrinka looms large in the semi-finals. The World No. 2’s last win over Nadal is more recent as he beat the Spaniard on clay last year but if it is Wawrinka, Murray has to go all the way back to 2012 to check his last victory over the Swiss.

Roger Federer

Roger Federer Monte Carlo tennis
Roger Federer in action in a practice session during day One of the ATP Monte Carlo Masters

Never in his career since he became a Grand Slam champion, Roger Federer had to start his challenge at a tournament with no expectations. But that is definitely the best approach for him and his enormous legion of fans.

This is his first competitive event since injuring his knee at Melbourne after bowing out of January’s Australian Open in the semi-finals. A subsequent surgery followed by a viral illness at Miami kept him out of the Tour for two months.

The 17-time Grand Slam champion’s primary objective now is to get used to the grind again which is supposed to take some time on a surface as gruelling as the red dirt.

Spaniard Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the second round and 14th seed Roberto Bautista Agut in the Round of 16 would provide him ample practice on his least productive surface. If the four-time runner-up can get past these early barriers, then eighth seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga awaits in the quarters.

Rafael Nadal

Rafael Nadal Monte Carlo tennis
Rafael Nadal looks on in a practice session during day One of the ATP Monte Carlo Masters

With a staggering eight consecutive titles and a total of nine finals at Monte Carlo, Rafael Nadal is the deposed king searching for his lost glory. And that is quite a tough job for the nine-time French Open winner given his sporadic good form. The 2016 season has so far been a mirror image to his 2015 woes except for the Indian Wells tournament where he showed some admirably gutsy and tenacious play to make it to the semis.

But whether the fifth seed would be able to carry on from there is something hard to tell irrespective of the fact that he is now entering that part of the season where once upon a time he used to be indomitable.

For one thing, Rafa’s draw is something he would not have desired. And if he has to book a berth in the final from that heavily stacked portion of the draw, it is imperative for the former World No. 1 to find his clay legs again.

After a mild opener against Aljaz Bedene, he is set to come face-to-face with the 12th seed Dominic Thiem, the Austrian youngster who conquered him on clay at Buenos Aires. If that is not tricky enough, then the reigning Roland Garros champion Stan Wawrinka in the quarter-finals should be quite a threat. Besides, there are added dangers like Grigor Dimitrov and Gilles Simon who can rattle the draw.

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