US Open 2010: Semi Finals Preview, Gearing Up For The Federer-Nadal Final

It is written in stars. It is destiny. It is meant to be. If Melbourne, Paris and London have had a taste of the most riveting rivalry of all times, why shouldn’t New York? And the stars have aligned so far to work exactly for them, be it the exit of Andy Murray early in the tournament, or the much too windy conditions of the Big Apple which has made the two guys in consideration stronger, and their opponents weaker.

The stage is set for a Federer/Nadal showdown at New York

But it is not only the conditions, which have been responsible for this inevitable showdown. It has been the players themselves. Roger Federer said after his routine mauling against Robin Soderling that he now actually likes to play in windy conditions, that it doesn’t affect his service toss in any way—and the way he served against Soderling was ample proof of that—and that he can wake up at 2AM in the night and yet hit the first serves in. In fact, the way he succumbed Soderling to his feet was even more inspirational.

For all the talk of Federer needing to be more aggressive, venturing to the net more often, using chip-n-charge, and the now-stale news of Paul Annacone, he picked all of it, threw that in trash, and battled Soderling from the baseline, trading power blows—he won just six points at the net—with him and playing him at his own game. Champions are stubborn, and Federer (just like Pete Sampras) showed his stubbornness by beating Soderling at his own game. Not a wise thing to do in a quarter-final against a formidable opponent, but then this is why he is a 16 time Grand Slam champion, and I am …… well, just a wise man.

Rafael Nadal has been impressive in his own way. With a much improved serve north of 130mph, a flatter forehand, being aggressive by positioning closer to the baseline, Nadal has torn apart his part of the draw losing no sets, and just one service game. And if Federer did his own trick with a second between-the-legs shot, Nadal countered it with his own 360-degree rotation half volley. Nadal has come with a purpose this time, and is looking stronger and fresher than ever with his hard court play.

With the top class form of both players, something we haven’t seen simultaneously from both players since Australian Open ’09—it is really THAT long that both haven’t met in a Grand Slam final—the fans can almost be heard saying, “Novak Djokovic, and Mikhail Youzhny, please get the hail out of New York so we can witness another Federer-Nadal final,” with no disrespect meant to either one of them (or am I kidding myself?)

So do they stand to play a spoilsport this time around?

Rafael Nadal vs Mikhail Youzhny

Youzhny has troubled Rafa in the past, taking him down in the Quarters before at the same venue, while stretching him to five at Wimbledon, but Nadal has usually felt comfortable in their matchup, and winning seven of the 11 matchups between them. Add to the fact that Nadal has been well rested—I repeat, well rested—in the tournament with all his matches slightly above two hours, and Youzhny might be spent after his five set battle with Stanislas Wawrinka, there is little chance that the Russian can come up with the upset. He is confident, though, of his chances that he love to be the “bad guy” by going further than he ever has in a Grand Slam. For that to happen, though, the nuts and bolts should fire at the same time, and he can give a tough time to Nadal with his flat strokes that penetrate well on this surface. It is unlikely, though, that this will happen.

Finalist: Nadal

Roger Federer vs Novak Djokovic

Djokovic has lost to Federer three straight times at the U.S. Open, and five straight times at the North American hard court tournaments. In the process, Federer has lost only two sets to the Serb compared to the 13 lost by the latter. Federer has mostly appeared in cruise control in all these five matches—except the one in Toronto—while Djokovic has mostly been overwhelmed. In short, Federer has owned Djokovic at the US Open. But then, is there a player who Federer has not owned at NYC? Apart from Juan Martin del Potro, he hasn’t lost to anyone here since he first won in 2004.

Can Djokovic reverse the trend? Sure. But for this, he needs to make sure he does not come out slow and looking mentally spent like he did for the first set and a half at Toronto. He needs to come out firing, with a nothing-to-lose mindset, go for the broke on the forehand, firing as he did for the latter half of their Toronto matchup, and be solid at his stronger wing—the backhand. Moreover, he needs to hope that Federer doesn’t come out in the same Godlike form as he did against Soderling. In short, the stars need to align in a pin point way for that to happen—exactly opposite of which has happened till now as I wrote above.

Djokovic has been in fine form so far not losing a set after his marathon five setter in the opening round, and having lost to Federer three consecutive times here, he got to favor his chances just basing it on law-of-averages. But then, these averages have not been true for the dozen other players whom Federer has dominated as well.

Finalist: Federer

Champion: Sit back, relax, and enjoy the Federer-Nadal final, but don’t ask me to predict!