US Open men's draw breakdown - Predicting a Djokovic vs Federer final

2013 U.S. Open – Preview

There were two important questions that were being asked before the US Open men’s draw was released.

Which of the top four seeds would draw Roger Federer, now down to no. 7 in the rankings, in their quarter?

Answer – Rafael Nadal.

And would Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, who have played in the finals of three of the last four slams, be on the opposite sides of the draw.

Answer – No.

But there’s plenty of tennis to play before we get to those matches.

Here’s our breakdown of the men’s draw for the US Open which begins in New York on Monday:

First Quarter –

Novak Djokovic

Since winning back-to-back titles in Melbourne and Dubai, Djokovic’s wheels seem to have come off – winning only one other title (in Monte Carlo). And he failed to reach the finals of either of the post-Wimbledon Masters Series events – making him somewhat vulnerable coming into the final Grand Slam of the season.

The Serb opens up against the former junior world no. 1 Ricardas Berankis, then could meet the Czech sledgehammer Lukas Rosol in the second round and Mr. Sharapova – Grigor Dimitrov – in the third.

All of those could be potentially tough matches. Djokovic’s fourth round opponent could be the no. 16th seed Fabio Fognini or the 24th seed Benoit Paire. If those two live up to their seeding and meet in the third round, be sure to watch that one – it could be the best popcorn match of the first week.

Former US Open champion Juan Martin del Potro is in Djokovic’s quarter. The Argentine has had a good summer, winning the title in Washington and reaching the semis in Cincinnati. The Serb does lead their head-to-head 9-3 but if the two meet on current form, it should be a closer contest than that.

Del Potro gets the winner of the Lleyton Hewitt and Brian Baker first round encounter in the second, Austrian veteran Jurgen Melzer, who’s currently in the finals in Winston-Salem this week, in the third, and German veteran Tommy Haas in the fourth round.

Matches to watch out for – (12) Tommy Haas vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu; Alexandr Dolgopolov vs. David Goffin

Upset Special – Nicolas Mahut to upset (21) Mikhail Youzhny

Predicted Quarter-Final – Djokovic vs. del Potro

Second Quarter –

Andy Murray

Andy Murray could have pressed for the world no. 1 ranking following his Wimbledon win. But the Scot was only 3-2 during the Montreal/ Cincinnati swing, causing him to drop to no. 3 in the rankings and landing himself in the same half as Djokovic.

Murray, who comes into a Slam as defending champion for the first time, meets the French veteran Michael Llodra in what should be a fun first round which Murray should be able to win easily. The Scot has 28th seed Juan Monaco in the third round and 15th seed Nicolas Almagro in the last 16.

The Scot’s first big test could comes in the quarters where he is drawn to meet Czech Tomas Berdych. Ranked no. 5 for the first time in his career, Berdych has a 6-4 edge in head-to-head over Murray and has won both their encounters this year, which should make things interesting if they live up to their seedings.

Berdych could face some trouble in the second round against the 21-year-old American Denis Kudla or 20-year-old countryman Jiri Veseley, the youngest player in the top 100. 31st seed Julien Benneteau should not provide too much resistance in the third round but ninth seed Stanislas Wawrinka or in-form South African Kevin Anderson could be tough customers in round four.

Matches to watch out for – (9) Stanislas Wawrinka vs. Radek Stepanek; James Blake vs. Ivo Karlovic

Also watch out for – Slovak Martin Klizan

Predicted Quarter-Final – Murray vs. Anderson

Third Quarter -

Milos Roanic

Is it fair to call a section headed by fourth seed David Ferrer and eighth seed Richard Gasquet a lightweight section? But that’s exactly how it feels when you compare it to the heavyweights in the other sections.

Ferrer is another player who has had a poor build-up to the US Open. The Spaniard won only one match in two events on hardcourts following Wimbledon and has been handed a tough draw.

Talented 18-year-old Australian Nick Kyrgios, who has won three matches in qualifying already, is up in the first round; Ernests Gulbis could await in the third round; and Wimbledon semi-finalist Jerzy Janowicz is his scheduled last 16 opponent.

Gasquet, who has reached the last 16 at Grand Slams 16 times in his career but gone beyond that only once, should be able to make the second week once again, but if 10th seed Milos Roanic gets there as well, Gasquet could be headed for another mid-tournament finish.

The Canadian youngster is coming off his first Masters Series final in Toronto, and will be aiming to reach his first Slam quarter-final. Other seeds in this section are the 23rd seed Feliciano Lopez and 32nd seed Dmitry Tursunov.

Matches to watch out for – (4) David Ferrer vs. Nick Kyrgios

Upset Special – 18th Janko Tipsarevic to lose early

Predicted Quarter-Final – Roanic vs. Janowicz

Fourth Quarter –

Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer

The draw gods are going all out to ensure that the fans get their fill of Federer vs Nadal before the sun sets on this rivalry. The two have played thrice this year already and if they meet for the 32nd time this fortnight, it would be their first meeting at Flushing Meadows.

Nadal won back-to-back Masters Series titles in Montreal and Cincinnati to make himself the front-runner for the year-end world no. 1 ranking and his performance in New York will go a long way in determining if he can take over the top spot from Djokovic.

The Spaniard opens up against plucky 21-year-old American Ryan Harrison, who always seems to draw a top player in the early rounds at a Slam. 27th seed Fernando Verdasco should not pose too many problems in the third round but Nadal’s big test could come in the last 16 where he is slated to meet the big serving American John Isner.

Isner is 13-3 on hardcourts after Wimbledon and finished second to Nadal in the US Open series. While he has never beaten Nadal in four career meetings, Isner did stretch Nadal to five sets on clay at the French Open a few years ago. When that serve and forehand is groovin’ and if the New York crowd gets behind him, Isner could stretch Nadal to the limit once again.

On the other hand, Federer has a relatively smoother passage to the quarters. 26th seed American Sam Querrey in the third round, and 11th seed Kei Nishikori or 19th seed Tommy Robredo, should be beatable opponents for the 32-year-old, even in his current form.

Also watch out for – Bernard Tomic, Gael Monfils and Vasek Pospisil

Upset Special – Ivan Dodog to upset 27th seed Fernando Verdasco

Predicted Quarter-Final – Nadal vs. Federer

Semi-Finals – Djokovic vs Murray; Raonic vs. Federer

Finals – Djokovic to beat Federer