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Over the last several weeks, the noise surrounding RJ Barrett has never been louder. Barrett, an 18-year-old from Mississauga, Ontario, does not let the noise get to him though. All Barrett is concerned with is being the NBA's next big thing.
The two biggest criticisms of him that currently exist seem to be that he's both a high-volume shooter and a below-average defender at his current level. Addressing him as a shooter, I do not necessarily disagree with that point but context is key.
Duke were not exactly blessed with a team of elite shooters this past season. Zion Williamson, the consensus first overall pick in the upcoming 2019 NBA Draft, missed five games for the Blue Devils with a knee sprain following his infamous shoe explosion in February against the North Carolina Tar Heels.
Zion also missed more than half of Duke's game in January at the Florida State Seminoles too, after being poked in the eye during the first-half. Overall, Williamson was just a 33.8% three-point shooter on the season, making his very dominant mark mostly by showcasing his athleticism and knack for scoring regularly in the paint.
Duke's shooting struggles justify RJ's usage rate
Duke’s other elite freshman, Cam Reddish, had an extremely underwhelming season. This past season, Reddish shot 39% from two-point range, 33% from three-point range, and 76% from the free throw line. For a player whose label was one of the country's best shooters coming into college, those numbers are particularly poor for the Norristown, Pennsylvania native.
Looking at the remainder of Duke's roster, Tre Jones shot just 41% overall and 26% from three-point range. Joey Baker played all of four minutes. Jack White's season is probably best known for his streak of missing 28 consecutive three-point attempts. Alex O'Connell went from being a 48% three-point shooter as a freshman to shooting just 37% this season. Javin DeLaurier, Marques Bolden and Jordan Goldwire are definitely anything but shooters - so in reality, who else but RJ could coach Mike Krzyzewski really rely on to hit a jump shot?
Statistical breakdown, compared with NBA 18/19
On the season for Duke, Barrett averaged 25.7 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game on 45.4% shooting. Barrett also shot 52.9% from two-point range and while just a 31% three-point shooter, keep in mind the fact they had no real consistent threats from deep throughout the season.
Barrett has the confidence to take threes and at just 18, could easily become a 35-40% three-point shooter within the next few years working closely with the league's shooting coaches.
His biggest strength is the ability to score. He recorded the fourth most points of any player in college basketball this season with 860 points, while playing 1,341 minutes over the course of the season - scoring the sixth most two-pointers with 246 made.
Looking at advanced statistics, Barrett's OBPM (offensive box plus-minus) of 5.3 would rank as the eighth best in the NBA this past season, just ahead of Kemba Walker. RJ's WS/48 (win shares per 48 minutes) of .194 would tie him for 17th in the league alongside Joel Embiid.
With a TS% (true shooting percentage) of .532, he'd be one of the 60 best across the league if he manages to match those numbers next season. More importantly than any of those however, his USG% (usage percentage) of 32.2% would rank him as having the sixth highest in the NBA - just behind Giannis Antetokoumpo and narrowly ahead of D'Angelo Russell. That shows just how desperate Duke were, for Barrett to facilitate their offense.
People often criticise Barrett for being a lackadaisical defender. If Barrett is really such a poor defender, then why are his defensive win shares (2.7) equal to that of players like Kevin Durant, Lebron James, Al-Farouq Aminu, Malcolm Brogdon, and Klay Thompson? None of which who are thought of as poor defenders, barring James - who is lazy at most.
Concluding thoughts
Barrett's defensive box plus-minus of 2.4 would rank him as the 23rd highest among all NBA players, right behind Ben Simmons. While he's by no means an elite defender yet, he's not as awful defensively as some people make him out to be.
Overall, RJ Barrett's criticism has never been louder since missing a free throw several weeks ago against the Michigan State Spartans. Faced with sky-high expectations as the number one recruit coming out of high school and a consensus top three pick in this summer's NBA Draft, Barrett not only lived up to his expectations but has already exceeded them.
