How many ODI centuries will Virat Kohli score in his illustrious career?

Another game and yet another century!

Virat Kohli scored his 2nd century of the series against Australia at Ranchi.

Are we surprised? Not really! The batting maestro continues to pile up centuries game after game at a pace that appears not just astonishing but actually unreal. Over the years, the game of cricket has witnessed a number of legends – Sir Don Bradman, Sir Vivian Richards, Sunil Gavaskar, Brian Lara, Ricky Pointing, Sachin Tendulkar but one thing that really sets this player apart is the level of consistency and he is only getting better with every passing day!

On 18th March 2012, Sachin Tendulkar played his last ODI ending with 49 centuries in a career that spanned over two decades (almost 25 years) and 463 ODIs (largest by anyone till date). That day, not many could have imagined anyone even coming closer to his batting records especially in regards to runs (18,426) and centuries. And while the entire nation was moaning over Sachin’s retirement from ODIs, on the side of the 22 yards, in the very same game, was another batsman that scored his 11th ODI century – Interestingly none other than Virat Kohli (183).

Almost exactly 7 years later, Kohli with 41 ODI centuries against his name is on the verge of breaking the record that was once considered beyond anyone’s reach. Without a doubt, the 30-year-old run-machine will score his 50th ODI century and achieve one of the biggest cricketing milestones very soon.

The question everyone seems to wonder now is ‘when’ will that happen and the way, he is going about his batting, we should not be surprised if he scores another 9 centuries this year. But the bigger and more interesting question the cricketing world is now wondering is ‘how many ODI centuries Kohli end his career with.'

Now though, the future cannot be predicted however it is intriguing to dive into the possibility based on 5 key assumptions:

Expected Retirement Age

At the current age of 30 and considering his fitness level, he still has a long career ahead. Looking at other players around the cricketing arena today such as Chris Gayle (39), MS Dhoni (37), it will not be a surprise if he plays until the age of 38 and follows the famous trend of retiring at the cricket’s biggest event - 2027 ICC World Cup.

MS Dhoni and Virat Kohli

Team India's ODIs per year (average)

In the recent market research conducted by ICC, it was discovered that amongst one billion cricket fans around the world, over 90% percent of them alone comes from Indian sub-continent. Thereby, it is expected that Team India will play more international cricket more than any other cricketing nation. In the recently (Jun’18) announced ICC Future Tour Programme (FTP) starting July 2018 until March 2023, Team India is scheduled to play 83 ODIs – that’s’ approximately 20 ODIs a year.

A century per ODI

Up until today (217 innings), on an average, Virat has scored a century more or less every 5th/6th inning. Interestingly, since Jan’16, the Indian captain has scored as many 18 ODI centuries in just 59 Innings – a century almost every 3rd inning. Though he appears to be in the form of his life now, it is inevitable that he will, just like any other legend, have patches of poor form in the coming years. Also, with age catching up at a later stage in his career, he may just slow down a bit. Therefore, we will assume a career’s average of a century every 5th inning.

Virat Kohli celebrating yet another century

Workload Management

Considering the amount of cricket Team India is scheduled to play in the coming years combined with the massive responsibility of captaining the Indian team, Virat is certainly expected to have a burnout not just physically but psychology as well. Understanding this very fact, the selectors have been extremely wise in resting the champion batsman for not so important series and keeping him fresh and fit for major tournaments. Hence, we can expect him to miss out on a few ODI matches (5) every year.

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Based on the above-mentioned assumptions, now let’s calculate the expected number of ODI centuries Virat Kohli will end up in his incredible cricketing career:

· Years of International cricket (based on expected retirement age) – 9 years

· Team India’s ODI per year – 20 ODIs (based on ICC FTP)

· In the interest of keeping Virat fresh and fit (Workload Management) – 5 ODIs per year

· A century in every 5th inning.

Therefore, Virat Kohli is expected to play 15 ODIs a year for the next 9 years amounting to a total of 135 ODIs for the rest of his career. Considering his consistency (a century every game), the legend should end up scoring more 27 more ODI centuries – An unimaginable total of 68 ODI centuries!

Again, these numbers are just merely based on assumptions but they appear quite realistic considering the way the Virat Kohli is moving forward. In fact, the way he is working on his game every single day, we may even end up witnessing a few more ODI centuries than expected.

So let’s just sit back and enjoy watching the legend take over the world of cricket.