India or New Zealand: Who will start as the favorites for the WTC final?

Apart from an air of excitement, there is the distinct sense that things will come full circle at the WTC final schedule contested by India and New Zealand starting on June 18 at the Ageas Bowl in Southampton.

Virat Kohli and Kane Williamson will write the next chapter of their historic rivalry, which started all the way back in the 2008 U-19 World Cup. The most recent installment, which came in the semi-final of the 2019 ODI World Cup, saw Williamson finish on the winning side only to suffer heartbreak in the summit clash.

The neutral venue for the WTC final certainly adds a layer of intrigue, as does the fact that the Blackcaps will play two Tests against England ahead of the India clash.

With two world-class teams taking each other on, a competitive encounter beckons. But who will start the WTC final as the favorites - India or New Zealand?

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India and New Zealand are evenly matched on paper, but paper means little in Test cricket

India v England - 4th Test: Day One

Let's first look at the WTC table.

India are placed at the very top, with five series wins amounting to 520 points. New Zealand are second with 420 points and three series wins. The change in rule from total points to points percentage appeared to favor the Blackcaps, who have made the WTC final without winning a single series away from home. Meanwhile, India's only series loss in the WTC came at the hands of New Zealand.

Ironic, isn't it? The team that has long been branded "lions at home, lambs abroad" comes into the WTC final with an odds-defying series win in Australia under its belt. India's opponents not only have zero away series wins and far fewer points but also get the advantage of playing two Tests in England ahead of the WTC final.

There's an even more damning indictment of the way India and New Zealand have reached the WTC final. Williamson's men were absolutely thrashed during a three-Test series in Australia. The Kangaroos won by 296, 247 and 279 runs, thoroughly outplaying New Zealand at venues India scripted history.

It isn't cut and dry, clearly. Earlier in the WTC cycle, the Kiwis brushed India aside in New Zealand. The two-Test series saw the home team run away 10-wicket and seven-wicket winners respectively, with the Indian batsmen struggling with the seam on offer in Wellington and Christchurch.

While movement will still be the name of the game in England, many other climactic and pitch conditions will be different. New Zealand is notorious for getting easier to bat on over the last few days of a Test, while English pitches will see some deterioration on days four and five. The spinners might come into play too, with the English summer beginning to wind down in June and the Ageas Bowl being slightly more accepting of the slower bowlers.

Check out the India team for WTC Final here.

Both teams have a potent fast-bowling attack. Both teams have a fairly settled top four with one opening slot still not completely ascertained. Both teams have a couple of all-rounders who are capable of contributing in both departments regularly.

India and New Zealand are evenly matched on paper, but that means little in a sport as physically and mentally charged as Test cricket.

After India's loss to New Zealand in the 2019 World Cup semi-final, Virat Kohli famously claimed that "45 minutes of bad cricket" saw his team exit the tournament disappointingly. And in the five-day WTC final, India will have many more windows to play either "good" or "bad" cricket.

Will they have the mental toughness and skill to stay locked in? For that matter, will New Zealand have the requisite fitness and resolve, having already played two Tests?

Kohli's men would be the runaway favorites if the Blackcaps weren't scheduled to play these two Tests, irrespective of the head-to-head battle that finished in favor of New Zealand in the series last year. And while match practice makes it a fairly level playing field, it's a game between bat and ball at the end of the day.

India can be labeled the slight favorites, simply because their playing XI is much more well-rounded and almost completely fixed.

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What do the experts have to say on the WTC final between India and New Zealand?

Brendon McCullum

Brendon McCullum, no stranger to leading New Zealand to the final of an ICC tournament, believes his country has the edge:

"I thought I was getting away with that (this question). I think 60-40, New Zealand. I think it's gonna be close but I think the match practice that New Zealand is going to have against England leading into the final could just tip it their way."

Former India spinner Venkatapathi Raju, in an exclusive chat with Sportskeeda, added his two cents to the matter:

“The Indian team has got every area covered. Fast bowling, spin, batting and wicket-keeping are all totally covered. If you see New Zealand, they are always the underdogs. There is no pressure on them. They just come, play and go. India are under pressure as they start favourites. India have been doing well abroad, the proof of which was in Australia last season when they beat them without the seniors. Winning a Test series in Australia is a big thing.”

Former India opener Aakash Chopra had another contrasting opinion:

"Don't rule India out but it is 55-45 in favor of New Zealand. Although they are No.2 in the Test rankings and play well at home but when we talk about Southampton, they can play slightly better than us in these conditions in the first half of the English summer."

Michael Vaughan was confident with his take, unlike the others:

"New Zealand (will win). English conditions, the Duke ball, and India on the back of a busy schedule… they’ll arrive pretty much a week before and go straight into it, [and] New Zealand have two test matches, you could argue warmups against England to get them prepared for the final. So it’s quite an obvious one for me."

West Indies legend Curly Ambrose had the following to say:

“India, I believe, may start as favorites. They are a strong overall team. But New Zealand, they have knack of sneaking up quietly. They don’t have a lot of big names or stars in their team. Kane Williamson, yes, is a star performer, but they tend to play well together. So they are a team you have to keep an eye on and be very careful against them. I am looking forward to an exciting match. It is going to be interesting.”

Many others have chimed on the debate, which will only intensify in the lead-up to the WTC final. Irrespective of who starts as the favorites, we're in for a Test match of the highest order.

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