2022 F1 Australian GP: Race Predictions

The Australian GP qualifying is done and dusted and we have Charles Leclerc on pole. The Ferrari driver is making it a habit of nailing that qualifying lap every time. Tomorrow, alongside Max Verstappen, we will be looking at another race-long battle between the two young drivers. To add to this, Carlos Sainz will be looking to recover from the disappointment of qualifying in P9 during the Australian GP.

The race will be run on a revamped track with multiple overtaking zones available and is going to be worth a watch. Having said that, with all the free practice and qualifying sessions now out of the way, we get to the business end of the Australian GP weekend. Let's get to the most fun part of the race, where we make predictions for the Australian GP.

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Australian GP 2022: Race Predictions

Prediction #1

Don't expect a repeat of the Saudi Arabian GP

Too much has been made of the new layout of the Australian GP, the DRS zones, and the new abrasive surface, which has led to expectations of an action-filled race fraught with overtakes. This might have been the case had the 4th DRS zone stayed intact because that could have played a crucial role in keeping the cars close to each other.

Now, with that DRS zone out of the way, will we see overtakes in the race? Yes, we will. The count, however, will not be too exaggerated. Especially with the tires proving to be durable enough for a one-stopper. The race in Saudi Arabia featured drivers jostling over the DRS detection zone. For the Australian GP, expect the race to be far more conventional than what Jeddah delivered.

Prediction #2

Highlight of the race (Battle between Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc)

F1 has picked up in 2022 from where it left off in 2021. Last season featured a year-long battle between Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen. This time around, it does appear that we are going to see a battle between Verstappen and Charles Leclerc.

The Dutchman has been off his game in qualifying this season as he is not entirely comfortable with the car at his disposal. Despite that, he's made up for it in the races. The highlight of Sunday's Australian GP is once again going to be the battle between Leclerc and Verstappen.

Prediction #3

The low point of the race: Sebastian Vettel

Sebastian Vettel has not had the best of returns in F1. The German has had a power unit failure, a massive crash in FP3, and then elimination in Q1. That was not what he had in mind when he envisioned how his 2022 season would pan out.

The Aston Martin is an underdeveloped, backmarker piece of machinery at the moment. While teams like Mercedes and their underperformance have taken center stage this season, Aston Martin is slowly starting to catch the attention as one of the bigger disappointments of the season. For the Australian GP, with Vettel starting near the back of the grid, it's hard to expect anything positive to happen for the Silverstone-based squad.

Prediction #4

Watch out for: Fernando Alonso

Fernando Alonso has been in blistering form this weekend. Whenever he has driven the Alpine, it has looked more and more like a frontrunner. The gap of close to half-a-second to his teammate is another example of where the Spaniard finds himself this weekend.

A hydraulics issue might have forced the Spaniard to start in P10. With the form Alonso is showing around Albert Park, however, watch out for him as he might pull out something special in the Australian GP.

Prediction #5

One Surprise result: Neither of Ferrari's customer teams score points

One of the more pleasant surprises this season has been the form of the Ferrari customer teams. Both Alfa Romeo and Haas have shown the potential to consistently score points this season. Yet, at the Australian GP weekend, neither of the teams could make it into Q3. This was not due to car issues or unfortunate circumstances, this was just the true pace of the cars.

Haas has struggled at Albert Park. With Alfa Romeo also not having a great showing in qualifying, we're predicting neither of the Ferrari customers to score points at the Australian GP.

Prediction #6

Race Winner

There is one key statistic that is going to annoy Ferrari. Since 2012, there has only been one instance where a driver on pole has been able to convert his grid spot into a win. Lewis Hamilton did that in 2015 when he clinched pole position and went on to win the race.

The Australian GP has traditionally been notorious when it comes to rewarding pole winners. Hamilton, one of the most successful qualifiers on this track with 8 pole positions, has only two wins to his name. Even Sebastian Vettel could convert only one of his three pole positions into a win.

This doesn't sound good if you are Charles Leclerc and have claimed your second pole position of the season. Should Leclerc lose the race to Max Verstappen, then there are factors other than "bad omens" that are going to contribute to that.

What Leclerc and Ferrari have shown this weekend, however, is that the car that they have at their disposal looks more balanced throughout the track. Unlike the Red Bull, which is a bit of a diva in the third sector, the Ferrari looks much easier to drive. In the long run, it could yield much better lap times than the Red Bull.

Hence, even if Verstappen jumps Leclerc at the start of the race, expect the Monegasque to fight back using better speed and tire management on these cars.

No surprises for guessing then, we're picking Charles Leclerc to win the race.