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The F1 circus is getting ready for the 2022 Canadian GP this weekend. In what is a reflection of a rather congested F1 calendar in place this season, teams will be on their way to Montréal already without getting fully out of the zone of the Azerbaijan GP.
Canada will be the 9th race of a season that has already seen quite a few twists and turns. Max Verstappen, who was 46 points behind Charles Leclerc after his Australian GP DNF, is now 34 points clear in the lead.
Red Bull is on a 5-race winning streak, with Verstappen winning 4 of them. Meanwhile, Ferrari is going through a rut and hit rock bottom in Baku with a double DNF. The Italian squad will be looking at the Canadian GP as the perfect opportunity to make a return to the top, a position it has not achieved for a while.
Mercedes, on the other hand, will be worried about the bumpy nature of the Canadian GP with a car that suffers the worst from porpoising in F1. Concurrently, teams like McLaren and Alfa Romeo will be hoping to stage a recovery after an average outing at the Azerbaijan GP. So, what can we expect from the Canadian GP? Let's find out in our race preview and share our predictions for the same.
Key storylines
#1 Ferrari's horrible run of form
In the last 5 races, Charles Leclerc has lost 80 points in the championship to Max Verstappen. Out of those 80 points, only the Imola GP can be put down as a weekend where the Ferrari driver did not do his best.
The reliability issues suffered by the Ferrari power unit are concerning because of the way even most of the customer cars fell by the wayside in Baku. The Italian team is on a 5-race losing streak with serious reliability issues that it has not had time to resolve. In the context of the championship battle, things are not looking good for the Scuderia.
#2 Porpoising and driver health
Watching Lewis Hamilton suffer from severe back pain as he tried to get out of the cockpit or Daniel Ricciardo stretching his back during post-race interviews for the 2022 F1 Azerbaijan GP was just not what you want to see. Back injuries are no joke and no driver should be subjected to them as you cannot train your body to deal with them.
The problem is that there's no solution in sight due to the varying degrees of porpoising issues faced by the teams, which leaves them at a competitive disadvantage if a solution like a standard ride height is introduced.
The Canadian GP is not going to offer much respite from the bouncing effect either. The track is bumpy, it has long straights, and the drivers are likely going to complain. Will there be any repercussions? We'll have to wait and see to find out.
#3 Daniel Ricciardo's form at McLaren
The F1 media laid into Daniel Ricciardo terribly after his Monaco GP debacle. The Australian bounced back in Baku and was more or less on pace throughout the weekend. Now, the question is, was it another one-off, or has the team finally found a solution to Ricciardo's problems?
This might require a lot of thinking over and a few races as a sample to finally reach a decision. Ricciardo bought himself a few more races before McLaren finally makes up its mind.
Form Guide
On Form
5 wins in 5 races! Is it even a debate? Red Bull is on a roll right now and the team cannot do anything wrong at the moment. After the third race of the season, it had a slower and more unreliable car in its garage. Since then, the team has transformed itself and turned the car into a faster and more reliable package on the grid. The team is on cloud nine right now and will be looking to keep the juggernaut rolling.
Out of Form
On the flip side of the coin from Red Bull is Ferrari. The Scuderia had the world on its feet after the Australian GP. Leading both the championships by a significant margin and winning two of the first three races was a dream start for a team that was essentially in the midfield last season.
Everything has come crashing down since then, as Ferrari has not won a single race and is coming to the Canadian GP on the back of a double DNF. The Prancing Horse needs a strong weekend and is desperate to have one by the looks of it.
Predictions for the Canadian GP
Race winner
Many fans have left no stone unturned in ruling out Ferrari as a championship contender. Moreover, pundits are already clamoring for a Red Bull advantage looking at the track for the Canadian GP.
To be fair, though, it's too early to say something like that! Why? Remember the 2022 F1 Australian GP? Ferrari was such a force on that track because, while the track had straights, they weren't conventionally too long.
If we compare Red Bull and Ferrari on the straights, the latter is better in acceleration while the former is better in the second phase of the straights where top speed takes over. For the Canadian GP, Ferrari might hold the edge everywhere, apart from the last sector.
Of course, reliability is a concern but if the team can overcome that then this weekend we could be looking at a return to the top of the ladder for Charles Leclerc.
Surprise of the Canadian GP weekend
Team
Recent reports reveal that Aston Martin has been able to get a hang of the porpoising effect that has been damaging to a lot of drivers at the recent Azerbaijan GP. Sebastian Vettel revealed in Baku that ever since the major upgrade in Barcelona, the team has been pushing the boundaries incrementally every race weekend.
With 3 races under its belt and a track that shows resemblance to Baku, Aston Martin might just be the leading midfield team at the Canadian GP. From being second last on the grid to the best of the rest, it will be quite a journey for the team.
Driver
Sebastian Vettel has hit the purple patch this season. The Aston Martin driver has overshadowed whatever Lance Stroll can achieve in that car as the gap is just too big now.
At the Canadian GP, we do feel that the German will have a capable car underneath him. Is a podium possible? That's a long shot, but why not! Expect Vettel to put together a strong result over the weekend.
Disappointment of the Canadian GP weekend
Team
Mercedes cannot afford to have another race where their driver comes out of the car looking as jaded as Lewis Hamilton did in Baku. While the team can complain and shout about the regulations needing a change, the first thing it needs to ensure is that its drivers have a safe car underneath them.
Mercedes ran two different setups in Baku for its two drivers which saw Lewis Hamilton suffering the effects of the race while George Russell looked rather comfortable.
For the Canadian GP, the team should ideally run a more conservative setup. Should that be the case, expect the team to struggle this weekend in the midfield.
Driver
Mick Schumacher's confidence was somewhat shattered after his crash at Monaco. The race in Baku did reveal a driver that was not only underconfident but also lacked the overall speed to do anything with the car. This weekend, he comes to the Canadian GP for the first time in his F1 career.
If we look at the trends, it's hard to expect anything special from the young German this weekend.
