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After this week’s games there is just one match left in the group stage of the 2019-20 edition of the UEFA Champions League, and fans of the Premier League should be happy, as it looks like all four English sides are now likely to make the knockout stages.
Both Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur are safely through with a game to go, as group winners and runners-up respectively, while holders Liverpool need just a point against RB Salzburg, and Chelsea will qualify if they beat Lille and Valencia at most secure a draw, or if they draw and Valencia fall to defeat at Ajax.
So can a Premier League side win the Champions League again, asserting the dominance of English football over Europe after Liverpool’s victory last season? Or will the famous trophy head elsewhere in Europe? Here, we rate each Premier League team’s chances of winning Europe’s biggest prize.
#1 Manchester City
Pep Guardiola might be rated as one of the best coaches in the world – if not the best, full stop – but it’s been a long time since he won the Champions League. The last time he lifted the famous trophy was with Barcelona in 2010-11 – so can this be the year that he changes that and leads Manchester City to glory?
It’s quite possible. City haven’t dropped a point in the group stage of this season’s competition yet, although it must be noted that their group – containing Shakhtar Donetsk, Dinamo Zagreb and Atalanta – was not the strongest. They’ve also proven themselves once again to be a potent attacking threat, as they’ve scored 12 goals in their 5 games – including 5 from Raheem Sterling – and have a goal difference of +9, the second-best in the group stage.
Do they have what it takes to go all the way, though? The Citizens certainly have the attacking threat to take on any side in Europe, with the likes of Sterling, Sergio Aguero, Bernardo Silva and Kevin De Bruyne all being considered up there with the best attackers in the world right now. They also retain the ball and keep possession arguably better than any other side. And to give them another advantage, they’ll be seeded for the Round of 16 and should receive a favourable draw.
However, considering the amount of money that City has spent, even since Guardiola took over in 2016, their squad isn’t actually that deep, particularly in the defensive areas. In recent games for instance, holding midfielder Fernandinho has been forced to play as a centre-back as first-choice defender Aymeric Laporte remains on the sidelines with a knee injury, and isn’t expected to be back until February at the earliest. This has led to Pep’s side have letting in some softer goals than you’d usually expect, particularly in their recent draws with Shakhtar and Atalanta.
Due to those defensive question marks, if they come up against the likes of Robert Lewandowski or Kylian Mbappe – as is likely the deeper they go into the competition – they could be in some trouble, but they should almost certainly be treated as one of the favourites.
Chances of winning: 4/5
Also check out: Champions League Schedule Champions League table
#2 Tottenham Hotspur
Despite their many trials and tribulations thus far this season, Tottenham Hotspur have at least qualified for the knockout stages of the Champions League, taking 10 points from their games against Olympiacos and Crvena Zvezda despite losing 2-7 in a humiliating game against Bayern Munich. Of course, since that loss, Spurs have fired longtime boss Mauricio Pochettino and replaced him with two-time Champions League winner Jose Mourinho.
So can Mourinho win his third Champions League title with his new club? Spurs did of course make the final last season only to come up short against Liverpool, but it’ll be a tremendous ask for them to go one step further this time around. For starters, despite their qualification they cannot catch Bayern at the top of their group – meaning a nasty draw against a giant like Juventus, Barcelona or Paris Saint-Germain could await them in the Round of 16.
It’s fair to suggest that Tottenham can defeat any side on their best day; they showed that last season when they took apart an in-form Borussia Dortmund side across two legs and then overcame Manchester City. Bbut their team no longer looks as robust as it once did, particularly in defence, and question marks hang over the future of some of their key men, from Jan Vertonghen to Christian Eriksen.
As many have stated, Mourinho is a proven winner at Champions League level and so it’s likely that he can get the best out of Spurs’ stars like Harry Kane and Dele Alli, but despite his track record in knockout games it’s hard to see Tottenham winning the tournament this season. Their squad is simply too thin when you match it against Europe’s giants.
Chances of winning: 2/5
#3 Liverpool
Last season’s winner, it seems likely that Liverpool will overcome the challenge of Red Bull Salzburg in their final group game to qualify for the knockout stages, and if they win that match they should also win their group and get that all important seeded spot for the Round of 16, guaranteeing them a slightly easier challenge.
But despite leading the Premier League by a clear margin right now – they haven’t lost a domestic game yet this season – the Reds haven’t quite been firing on all cylinders in Europe. A disappointing loss to Napoli got their campaign off with a whimper rather than a bang, and while they’ve scored plenty of goals, their defence hasn’t looked as imperious as it did last season, even against bottom-of-the-table Genk.
Jurgen Klopp can call upon one of the finest attacking trios in Europe in the form of Mohamed Salah, Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane, and if last season’s Champions League is anything to judge by, Divock Origi is an able deputy should Klopp lose one of those three. Midfield however is another question entirely, and how Liverpool will deal without the injured Fabinho – who could be sidelined until the Champions League restarts in 2020 – is anyone’s guess.
The Reds have the attacking firepower to bother any team they come up against, and if their defence can regain its stature then they’re in with a shout, but it’s also incredibly difficult to retain the Champions League – only Real Madrid have done it in recent history – and a performance like last season’s 4-0 win over Barcelona will be hard to come by this time around.
Chances of winning: 3/5
#4 Chelsea
Chelsea may yet have a fight on their hands in order to make the knockout stages of the Champions League; their failure to beat Valencia this week means that they need at least a point at home to Lille to qualify, and will need a victory if Valencia somehow manage to defeat Ajax in Amsterdam. But assuming Frank Lampard’s side do make it through, do they have a chance to upset the odds to win the competition?
It’s hard to see, to be honest. Admittedly, Lampard has done a tremendous job at Stamford Bridge thus far this season, turning Chelsea into a youthful, exciting outfit to watch, with the likes of Tammy Abraham and Mason Mount performing brilliantly in their first senior seasons at the club, while veterans such as Mateo Kovacic and N’Golo Kante have also seen their form improve. But things haven’t all been plain sailing for the Blues.
Lampard’s brand of football – particularly in their European games – has bordered on outright gung-ho tactics at times, and while that’s provided a ton of entertainment in their draws with Valencia and Ajax, their defence has also looked very suspect on occasions. Both Ajax and Valencia both had the chances to finish Chelsea off in their recent clashes – and if they’d managed it, the Blues would’ve been eliminated.
They didn’t though and so Chelsea continue to march on in the competition. It’s fair to suggest that the Champions League has seen huge upsets before – who saw Tottenham making last season’s final? – but it’s just hard to see Lampard’s side getting past a really tough tie in the next round. And to win the whole thing, they’ll basically have to produce eight perfect performances, something that’s possible, but still highly doubtful.
Chances of winning: 2/5
