At 5 o’clock UK time on Saturday evening, there will probably be slightly more interest worldwide in Atlético Madrid’s showdown in Barcelona than proceedings at Wembley, but for Arsenal and Hull, north west London provides the location for them to end respective seasons that have petered out on a dramatic high.
A great deal has been made of the Gunners’ 9-year trophy drought that followed such a successful period, while Hull are one – albeit unlikely – win away from their first ever major trophy. Reaching the final is an achievement in itself for Steve Bruce’s side, but having seen Wigan take Arsenal to penalties in the semi final, there is indeed some hope for them.
Doing so remains highly improbable, though, and an in-form Arsenal side will go all out for victory. Here, we look at four key issues ahead of the clash.
Will Steve Bruce go with 3 or 4 at the back?
Hull City manager Steve Bruce
The Hull manager is one of the more experimental in the Premier League, having flitted between formations using 3 and 4 centre-backs and 1 or 2 centre-forwards all campaign. They played much of the beginning of their campaign with 3 at the back and enjoyed some success, consolidating their place in the Premier League at a relatively early stage considering many had tipped them for an immediate return to the second tier.
However, it was more Bruce’s flexibility and willingness to change formation that aided them most. In their win over Liverpool in December, Hull started in a 3-5-2 formation, but with the scores tied at 1-1 after 66 minutes, Bruce withdrew Robert Koren, who was playing up front, and replaced him with full-back Liam Rosenior. Maynor Figueroa went to left-back and Hull went on to win 3-1, playing the final 24 minutes in a 4-5-1 lineup.
Hull begun 20 Premier League matches this season with 3 centre-backs and wing-backs out wide, but they won only two of them, losing on 14 occasions. At the Emirates earlier in the season, they started with 3 at the back, went 2-0 down, switched to 4 defenders and looked more solid in the latter stages of the game. However, in the return fixture at the KC Stadium, Bruce set his team out in a 4-4-2 but were utterly overawed in the middle and lost 3-0.
Arsène Wenger is steadfastly committed to playing with 1 up front, and if Bruce were to play with 3 at the back he leaves his team open to allowing Lukas Podolski space to get in behind on the left with the right wing-back up the pitch attacking. Keeping the game level in the early stages will be vitally important and he won’t want to concede early, so may be best advised setting up with 4 at the back and an extra body in midfield, too, and though that will leave the lone centre-forward isolated, Bruce is arguably not in a position to do otherwise.
Giroud hits form at the right time
Olivier Giroud will a decisive factor in the final
Arsenal’s French forward has been criticised – and sympathised with – for the fantastic burden placed on his shoulders to get the goals to fire his team to the title. With no other senior option up front, Olivier Giroud was on the pitch for a greater proportion of the Premier League season just past (90.1%) than any other forward, and he went through predictable peaks and troughs in goalscoring form as a result.
He has, though, hit better form since he was rested for much of the semi-final, scoring 3 times and setting up another in Arsenal’s 5 games since then. He proved nigh-on unplayable for Norwich’s defence in the 2-0 win at Carrow Road last week and he displayed his strength, power and wonderful touch to create 2 chances and hit 4 shots himself.
24 of his 27 Premier League goals for the Gunners have come in the capital so there is every reason to believe he could be the difference. What is more, Giroud’s job is so much greater than simply finishing off chances, with the Frenchman having laid the ball off for a teammate more times than any other player in the Premier League this season (202). Only 1 player (Peter Crouch) comes within 50 of Giroud in this regard.
As an average rating of 7.53 over his past 5 appearances shows, Giroud has hit form at just the right time.
Hull’s lack of firepower
Both Long and Jelavic will be missing for Hull as they remain cup tied
No Shane Long and no Nikica Jelavic for Hull this weekend, with both cup-tied in the competition, and Steve Bruce’s side are seriously depleted up front. If they do, as previously mentioned, start with just one up front, that is likely to be Yannick Sagbo, who scored against third-tier Sheffield United in the last round, but has managed only 2 goals in 28 appearances in league games this season.
The fact that the most times a Hull player has netted in the Premier League this season is only two more than Sagbo speaks volumes about their lack of firepower up front. Long and Jelavic are their joint highest goalscorers with 4 apiece, and so it will likely be a set piece that provides their best chance of glory. Excluding own goals, only a higher proportion of Cardiff’s goals (30%) were headed than Hull’s in the Premier League this season (28.6%), so they will look to get their big men forward at corners.
However, that they only managed to score in 1 of their 8 games against the top 4 this season does not bode well for this weekend’s underdogs.
Jack Wilshere’s match fitness
How big a part will Wilshere play in the final?
Onlooking England fans’ main concern may well be the form, fitness and impact of Jack Wilshere. The midfielder was named in Roy Hodgson’s squad for the tournament in Brazil despite only having 27 minutes of football since being injured in a friendly with Denmark in March.
Wilshere does have the propensity to swing a match in his side’s favour and it would be a huge boost if he were to make it to the World Cup after building up his match fitness ahead of the competition with an outing here. A starting berth in this game might be beyond him, but England fans will be keen that the midfielder is given at least some time on the pitch and Tom Cleverley is left as a reserve in the Three Lions’ squad.
Arsenal have had key players in Aaron Ramsey and Mesut Özil returning to fitness in recent weeks, and Wilshere’s availability will only strengthen them as they seek to win their first piece of silverware since 2005. A squad as strong as Arsenal’s certainly should be capable of doing so, particularly with Wilshere back in action.
