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According to a study based on data analytics conducted by ESPN, Manchester United were the 'luckiest' team in the Premier League last season whereas Liverpool were determined to be the 'unluckiest'.
ESPN came up with a 'Luck Index' to evaluate which team had gotten the rub of the green the most and then arranged the 20 teams that were a part of the previous League campaign in descending order based on how much luck they enjoyed throughout the entire season.
How does the 'Luck Index' work?
A research team collaborated with ex-Premier League referee Peter Walton, analysing footage from every game of the 2017-18 Premier League season and watching for:
> Goals that should have been disallowed
> Incorrectly disallowed goals
> Incorrectly awarded penalties (that were scored)
> Penalties that were not awarded but should have been
> Incorrect red-card decisions
> Red-card incidents that were missed
> Goals scored after injury time overran
> Deflected goals
Once incidents had been identified, an alternative outcome of the affected matches was predicted, using a model that also considered factors including team strength, form, and home advantage.
For example: in Liverpool's 0-0 draw with Manchester United at Anfield on 14 October, the study concluded Jurgen Klopp's side should have been awarded a penalty in the 63rd minute, and the new simulated scoreline was a 1-0 victory for the home side.
And, while Leicester gained seven points compared to Manchester United's six according to the 'Luck Index', the Red Devils' points came from fewer incidents, giving them a greater points-per-incident ratio.
According to the study, Liverpool should have finished 12 points better off than their final tally of 75 points with 14 incidents reviewed to put them in second place instead of the eventual fourth. The key game in the study was the 2-2 draw against Tottenham on February 4 which should have resulted in all three points as against just the one.
On the other end of the spectrum, Jose Mourinho’s Manchester United finished six points better off than they should have, the study reveals. Accordingly, United should have had six points fewer to finish in fourth after 16 dodgy incidents were reviewed. The contentious games were: win over Swansea on August 19, draw with Liverpool on October 14 and beat Brighton on November 25.
The study further reckons Manchester City should have finished with 97 points instead of the record 100 points and yet clinched the Premier League title by a 10 point margin from Liverpool.
They came up with 157 incidents, of which a random sample of 20 was then ratified by a Premier League referee. They broke down as:
> 17 incorrectly awarded goals (offside, foul in the buildup, etc.)
> five incorrectly disallowed goals (incorrect whistle for handball, etc.)
> eight incorrectly awarded and converted penalties
> 50 penalties not awarded that should have been
> one incorrect red card
> 19 red cards not given that should have been
> 16 goals scored outside of injury time
> 41 deflected goals
University of Bath assistant professor Thomas Curran said: "The ESPN Luck Index powered by Intel analysed more than 150 incidents throughout the season and used data ranging from recent form and team strength to game state and home advantage."
"Then we simulated each game thousands of times to model how it should have turned out. It is one of the most detailed pieces of research we have ever conducted."
Walton said: "The results of the ESPN Luck Index demonstrate the impact and importance of refereeing decisions on a game."
“With the Premier League deciding not to introduce VAR for the coming season, it is interesting to see how much luck plays a part in the way the league unfolds.”
Based on the simulations conducted by ESPN, this is how the Premier League table ought to have looked like:
