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One of the big reasons that the Premier League has its global appeal is its unpredictability. Going into any fixture, few teams have the certainty of coming away unscathed. Even the best pundits often get these predictions wrong, and over the years commentary around the game has been dictated by various statistics.
With the rise of the Expected Goals metric in conversation around the game, we're starting to see more clubs rely on it to make key decisions. The media has also adopted it for analysis and perhaps allowing them to make more informed predictions. The Telegraph used Opta's 'Expected Goals' metric to make some such observations as inferred in detail here.
West Ham (8th) and Norwich (19th) will have similar seasons
The reality is that apart from the most important metric, that is goals, the two clubs are already having largely similar seasons. The most obvious reflection is the goals scored tally with the Hammers scoring just one more than the Canaries, but pretty much every other statistic is drastically different.
The Irons have conceded only 11 goals, whereas Norwich have let in a whopping 21 goals. However, both teams have an expected goals count of 11 and have conceded about 15 chances each. The primary difference has been that West Ham's fortune in conceding less and Norwich's underperformance to concede more.
Over the course of the season, it should normalise and the Canaries should improve while West Ham may get worse.
Leicester City will dip
The Foxes are flying high under Brendan Rodgers and look an absolute delight with Jamie Vardy, James Maddison, and Youri Tielemans all contributing to their stellar attack. The expected goals metric indicates that they're over scoring by a difference of about 6 goals.
That deviation from the norm is bound to dip over the course of the remaining 30 games and Rodgers' team will have to cope with that reduction in the sheer number of goals. Leicester City might still finish in the top four, but they're headed for quite a dip in the near future.
Frustrating Southampton will rise
This is one that's more visible to anyone who's watched Ralph Haasenhuttl's side in action this season. The Saints have given a good account of themselves in a difficult start to the season and it shows in their numbers.
They're underperforming on both expected goals where they should be closer to 13 but have only managed eight goals so far. They've failed miserably in front of goal where they might have succeeded with more clinical strikers. Even at the other end they've conceded 15 goals but should have only let in 10.
Given time, this team should start to find it's rhythm and rise up the table.
Tottenham's grim future
Last season, Mauricio Pochettino spent nothing in the transfer window and made it to the Champions League final. Granted that their league form dipped at the end and them reaching the final was nothing short of miraculous, but it was still a team that overperformed. Given that they actually spent on bringing in talent this summer to compensate in important areas, Spurs should, going by conventional wisdom, do better.
The story under the surface makes it seem worse as they've actually scored nearly five goals more than their xG, and that will be expected to normalise soon. Their talisman Harry Kane is also outperforming his xG at the moment despite underwhelming performances.
They have also conceded 12 goals and the metric dictates that they should've conceded more despite Hugo Lloris having one of the best save percentages in the league. With the custodian out of commission, the silver lining for Spurs is hard to see.
