Premier League 2018/2019: Five reasons Why Tottenham will not make the top four

From looking on from afar and attempting to gatecrash the party that was Champions League qualification, which was once exclusively open to only the top four of Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool, to successfully negotiating their entry and cementing their status as Champions League participants, Tottenham have done impressively well in recent seasons.

Hitherto unknown players such as Harry Kane, Eric Dier, Dele Alli, Christian Eriksen, Jan Vertonghen and Heung-Min Son to name a few have been nurtured into world beaters and seasoned internationals under the management of Mauricio Pochetino, while elite players such as Dmitir Berbatov, Luka Modric and Gareth Bale have been sold off to bigger clubs for a healthy profit.

However, with increased number of rivals for limited spots in the UCL group stage, the competition is now more intense than ever to qualify for the Champions League in the EPL, and Spurs will face an uphill battle to retain their top 4 status in the upcoming season.

While it might be difficult to imagine a scenario where Tottenham doesn't finish in the top four owing to their impressiveness in recent seasons, it is a very likely possibility. Here are five reasons why Tottenham might not make it into the top four next season.

#5 Inactivity in the transfer market

Tottenham Hotspur achieved a remarkable third-placed finish last season in the Premier League and almost put their Wembley voodoo behind them, before eventually falling short in the Champions League, getting knocked out by Juventus. While the season could be labelled a success, they were a long way off the pace, finishing a massive 23 points behind runaway winners Manchester City in the Premier League title race.

Since then, City has already added Riyadh Mahrez to their team, while Tottenham's other rivals have also bolstered up their squads, addressing key areas of weaknesses from last season, with Liverpool leading the way, having spent about £182.2m on new arrivals, including goalkeeper Alisson Becker from Roma and combative midfielder Naby Keita from RB Leipzig.

Tottenham have however been characteristically quiet on the transfer front, and are yet to make any major signing. While their squad is adequate enough for a top-four challenge, the number of arrivals at their direct rivals and increased competition means strengthening the squad for the assault on this season should be a matter of priority for Tottenham. However, on evidence of their transfer activities thus far, Spurs are not thinking along these lines, and this could be a major factor in the club failing to finish in the top four after three consecutive seasons of making it.

#2 The Chelsea factor

Chelsea would seek to bounce back from the disappointments of last season under Conte

In the last eight years, Tottenham has finished in the top four five times, on three of those occasions, Chelsea finished outside the top four as Tottenham capitalized on the underperformance of The Blues in 2012, 2016 and 2018.

Chelsea have infamously capitulated in the season after winning the league title on the last two occasions, first in 2016, when Mourinho's 'third season syndrome' crept in, and the London club found themselves in the relegation places when the Portuguese was sacked amidst rumors of clashes with the physios and players.

Last season, controversies over a text message, departure of the club's technical director, failed transfer pursuits and unsettlement of key players played a role in finishing a dismal fifth, having won the title in remarkable circumstances just a year earlier.

Chelsea have always followed up each of these disappointments with an improved performance in the league, and despite their setback in the Community Shield should continue that trend. Also, in Maurizio Sarri, they have a tactically astute coach who has the wherewithal to steady the ship.

With the clear superiority of the Manchester clubs and massive investment by Liverpool, Chelsea's likely revival could mean that Spurs would have to be the team to fall out of the EPL top four.

#3 No backup for Harry Kane

Harry Kane is the EPL's leading marksman

Harry Kane has been one of the most lethal centre-forwards in Europe over the last four years, scoring 105 league goals in just 139 matches since the start of the 2014/2015 season, and was back to back EPL Golden Boot winner in 2016 and 2017.

In 2017, he broke Alan Shearer's 22-year record (36 goals scored in 1995) of most EPL goals scored in a calendar year (39), en-route outscoring everyone in Europe that year including Messi and Ronaldo with a total goal count of 56 in just 52 matches in all competitions (making him the only player in Europe's top five leagues to have a goal ratio of over a goal per game that year). Tottenham has expectedly benefitted from his goalscoring exploits, as his goals have been instrumental in all the gains made by Tottenham in recent seasons.

Harry Kane is the chief goal threat of Tottenham, and unsurprisingly scores most of their goals. In his first Golden Boot winning season, Kane scored 25 of Tottenham's 69 EPL goals or a 36% ratio, that figure to increased 40% last season (30 of 73 goals scored).

Though most major clubs have a marquee first team striker who discharges his duties exceptionally well by scoring goals (Lewandowski at Bayern, Aguero at Man City, Suarez at Barcelona etc), and a lot of other clubs would love to be in this situation (Chelsea with Morata for example), it is an even better proposition to have a backup source of goals in the event of a loss of form or injury to the top striker.

While Heung-Son Min and to a lesser extent Dele Alli have contributed in their own small way with crucial goals, they are neither out and out strikers nor consistent enough with goalscoring to be considered as an effective backup to Harry Kane.

Tottenham's recent investments in the striking department have largely proved to be colossal wastes of money, as Roberto Soldado, Victor Jansen and Fernando Llorente have all failed to deliver and this over-reliance on Harry Kane could cost Tottenham in its quest to retain its top four status.

#4 Unsettlement of key players

Alderweireld is seeking a transfer to Manchester United

Tottenham has been under the chairmanship of Daniel Levy since 2002, in that time, the club has made solid improvements, with Levy having earned a reputation of being a tough negotiator, getting maximum value for players the club sells, while achieving success on a relatively shoe-string (by today's football standards) budget.

The club has a very frugal financial policy which is followed to the letter, and while it steadily ensures Tottenham are run on a profit unlike most of its rivals, it also means that the club is not as competitive in the transfer market as said rivals, with the club unable or rather unwilling to cough out the requisite funds to sign top quality players.

Another drawback of the club's fiscal policy is that their wage-cap limit stops the club from rewarding its players with contracts which their immense talents deserve, and always puts their top players at an earning disadvantage compared to their peers at other clubs.

Kyle Walker left the club at the start of last season, and earns double his Spurs salary at Manchester City, while Danny Rose complained publicly about not earning what he deserves, and was frozen out of the first team.

The latest player to decry the club's payment structure is Toby Alderweireld, who has just one year left on his current deal, and turned down a contract extension last season as the club refused to meet his wage demands of £180,000/week (which is fairly justifiable, as he is one of the top defenders in the league, and players inferior to his talent earn similar amounts elsewhere). The result of this is that he is being heavily linked with a transfer to Manchester United.

Tottenham has one of the most talented pool of players in the Premier League, and on their day, they can hold their own against any team anywhere in the world, but Tottenham's strict financial policies puts the club at risk of having a bunch of disgruntled players in their ranks, and this does no team any good in its pursuit of meeting its season's challenges.

#5 - Tough Competition

There is renewed competition in the EPL

Now more than ever, Tottenham have more competition for the top four spots. Arsenal have a new coach in Unai Emery, and the Spaniard would seek to infuse new life into the Gunners, after the stagnation of the last few years under Arsene Wenger.

Mauricio Pochetino has five direct coaching rivals to contend with, coaches of the highest quality who have won numerous titles (bar Maurizio Sarri) and he will have his tactical acumen tested to the limit.

Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham all have the necessary requirements to challenge for a top-four spot, and it would be a race which would go down to the wire, and only the clubs who show the most consistent desire and dedication over the course of the nine months of the Premier League season will triumph.

With all their rivals in the EPL top six showing their intention of challenging for the top honours by making the necessary managerial and playing changes, Tottenham might pay the price for their stagnation and fall out of the Premier League top four come May next year.