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ATP Tour Finals: Equation for qualifying for semis from Group A

The battle to reach the semifinals becomes more crucial  as the 2012 ATP tour finals has completed two-thirds of the group stages and every player left with their last match. However, no one is still confirmed to reach the Knock out stage.

Novak Djokovic vs Tomas Berdych:

The first match of Group A will be played between top seed Djokovic and Czech player Tomas Berdych. Djokovic  has a great record against Berdych and has won 10 out of 11 matches against Berdych and in last eight matches between these two players, Djokovic won all of these matches.

Novak Djokovic:

In the previous five ATP Tour Finals, Djokovic was not able to make it to semifinals thrice. This time Djokovic has golden chance to qualify for the semifinals as he won both his earlier group stage matches.

In only one scenario Djokovic can miss the semis, if  Berdych beat Djokovic  in straight sets and Murray beat Tsonga in straight sets, then Murray and Berdych will qualify.

Tomas Berdych:

Last year, Berdych qualified for the semifinals but this time, he lost against Murray and won against Tsonga and is currently at third position in his Group.

Berdych needs to win this match and that too in straight sets, then he will qualify for the semis. Other than that, his qualification will depend on other match later today between Tsonga and Murray .

If Tsonga beat Murray then just win overs Djokovic , it will confirm Berdych’s place in knockout stage.

There is one more scenario where Berdych will qualify for the semis; if Tsonga defeats Murray in straight sets and Berdych wins at least one set against Djokovic.

Andy Murray vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga:

Andy Murray has won six out of seven matches against Tsonga.

Andy Murray:

A win over Berdych has given Murray a good chance for qualifying. He is currently at second spot in the group.

If Murray beats Tsonga, Murray will qualify for the semifinals but if Berdych defeats  Djokovic  in straight sets, then Murray has to beat Tsonga in straight sets.

In the first match, if Djokovic beats Berdych, and Murray loses the match in three-set game, then too Murray will qualify for the Semis.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga:

Tsonga has not registered any win in this tournament thus Tsonga’s chances to reach the semis are very low.

In the first match, if Djokovic beats Berdych in straight set, then there a chance for Tsonga of he also beats Murray in straight set.

In the first match, if Djokovic fails to win in straight sets, then Tsonga will be out of the semis race but his role will be a decider for other semifinalist.

Possible chance of Semifinals Qualification:

Novak Djokovic vs Tomáš BerdychAndy Murray vs Jo-Wilfried TsongaGroup A WinnerGroup A Runner-Up
  Djokovic defeats Berdych [ Regardless of score]
 Murray defeats Tsonga  [ Regardless of score] Novak Djokovic Andy Murray
 Berdych defeats Djokovic [ Regardless of score]Tsonga defeats Murray [ Regardless of score]
 Tomáš Berdych Novak Djokovic
  Djokovic defeats Berdych [ in 2 sets]
 Tsonga defeats Murray [ in 2 sets] Novak Djokovic Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
  Djokovic defeats Berdych [ in 2 sets]
 Tsonga defeats Murray [ in 3 sets] Novak Djokovic Andy Murray
  Djokovic defeats Berdych [ in 3 sets]
 Tsonga defeats Murray [ in 2 sets] Novak Djokovic Tomáš Berdych
  Djokovic defeats Berdych [ in 3 sets]
 Tsonga defeats Murray [ in 3 sets] Novak Djokovic Andy Murray
  Berdych defeats Djokovic [ in 2 sets] Murray defeats Tsonga [ in 2 sets] Andy Murray Tomáš Berdych
  Berdych defeats Djokovic [ in 2 sets] Murray defeats Tsonga [ in 3 sets] Tomáš Berdych Novak Djokovic
  Berdych defeats Djokovic [ in 3 sets] Murray defeats Tsonga [ in 2 sets] Novak Djokovic Andy Murray
  Berdych defeats Djokovic [ in 3 sets] Murray defeats Tsonga [ in 3 sets] Novak Djokovic Andy Murray

 Stats:

Chance of Qualifying in Semis:

Djokovic     : 90%

Berdych      : 60%

Murray       :  40%

Tsonga        : 10 %

On the basis of previous performances, chances of Djokovic and Murray qualifying are 94%.

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