Dipa Karmakar's qualification chances hang by a thread

Dipa Karmakar competes on the beam at Rio

History-maker Dipa Karmakar of India has performed all her four routines in the qualifying stage in Artistic Gymnastics, finishing with a score of 14.850 in the Vault, 11.666 in the uneven bars, 12.866 in the beam and 12.033 in the floor exercise. Expectedly, her best show came on the vault, where she attempted the famed Produnova and the Tsuk double full twist.

Karmakar did not manage to stick the Produnova, and had a deep and low landing. She might have scored even higher on the Vault had she managed to execute the ‘Death Vault’ as perfectly as she has done before. She got more points for execution of her second vault, which was not the Produnova, but which had a lesser point value in terms of difficulty.

Karmakar is without doubt out of contention for the final round in all the other apparatus, but stands a decent chance of making the top 8 in the Vault.

How Karmakar can qualify for the final

Three out of five subdivisions have been played out in the Artistic Gymnastics Women’s fray, and Dipa’s score of 14.850 currently places her at 6th in the Vault.

Two more subdivisions remain to be played out, and if at least three gymnasts from those subdivisions manage to score higher on the Vault than her, then Dipa will have vaulted for the last time in Rio 2016. However, 14.850 is a decently high score to beat, and we might get a chance to see the Produnova again after all.

The two remaining subdivisions are scheduled to start off at 2 am (IST) and 5 am (IST) on Monday. The only question that remains for Indian fans who have got the opportunity to cheer for a gymnast at Olympics for the first time in half a century is whether the remaining subdivisions have vaulters capable of crossing the 14.850 score.

Going by results from the 2012 Olympics, a score of 14.850 can be good enough to take Dipa to the final, and even to within touching distance of a medal. Only three vaulters had a higher score than 14.850 in the London edition.

A look at the remaining field does not return a bright picture though. A lot of the American and Japanese heavyweights are yet to compete, among them the famed Simon Biles and her equally famous USA teammates, the ‘Fierce Five’.

However, as Indian fans have found out over the past few hours, gymnastics is a complex sport, and there are further considerations to be kept in mind as well. There is also a one per country rule, which means only 1 individual from one country is allowed to compete in the finals of the apparatus events. Therefore, for example, even if one the American gymnasts score higher than Dipa but nobody else does, she would still qualify for the final in 8th place.

Can Dipa take her place alongside the seven other best vaulters on 14 July? We shall know in a few hours’ time. Or, if the fourth subdivision produces more than two better scores, then sooner than that.

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