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Next weekend sees UFC 273 go down from Jacksonville, Florida, and in one of the event’s biggest fights, Khamzat Chimaev takes on Gilbert Burns.
Chimaev is undoubtedly one of the fastest-rising stars in the UFC, but can he really defeat former welterweight title challenger Burns?
It isn’t likely to be easy for ‘Borz’, as Burns will represent his toughest test to date by far. Despite this, the Chechen-born Swede should still be expected to come out on top.
With that considered, here are five reasons why Chimaev will smash Gilbert Burns at UFC 273.
#5. Khamzat Chimaev should hold a size and strength advantage over Gilbert Burns come fight time
Despite Gilbert Burns’ recent successes in the welterweight division, the Brazilian has only been fighting there in the UFC for a relatively short period of time, since early 2019.
Prior to this, ‘Durinho’ largely competed in the lightweight division and had plenty of success there, defeating the likes of Alex Oliveira and Olivier Aubin-Mercier. Interestingly, Burns also never missed weight for a fight in the UFC at 155 pounds.
Quite what triggered his move to 170 pounds, then, remains a question mark. Sure, he hasn’t looked outsized in any of his fights at welterweight, but it’s definitely fair to say that he’s one of the smaller fighters in the division, sporting a fireplug-esque physique and standing at just 5’10”.
Khamzat Chimaev, on the other hand, is a huge welterweight who has competed comfortably at 185 pounds before. Unlike Burns, his frame is perfectly suited to welterweight and, if anything, he probably has to cut a substantial amount of weight to make that limit.
Khamzat Chimaev stands at 6’2” and possesses a 75” reach. This should give him a notable strength and size advantage over Burns in this fight, despite the Brazilian’s heavily muscled physique.
Sure, it’s true that ‘Durinho’ has not yet been outmuscled at 170 pounds, even by Kamaru Usman, but he’s also never fought a welterweight quite as big as Chimaev. There’s a chance that the strength and size of ‘Borz’ may shock him, leading to a win for the prospect.
#4. Gilbert Burns has struggled with powerful wrestlers before
Gilbert Burns is undoubtedly a fantastic grappler. Despite winning a number of his recent fights via strikes, his Brazilian jiu-jitsu game remains his bread and butter. In fact, when ‘Durinho’ debuted in the UFC back in 2014, he did so with a reputation as one of the best lighter-weight grapplers on the planet.
However, it’s notable that at times, Burns has struggled to deal with powerful wrestlers. Against Kamaru Usman, for instance, he was unable to implement his grappling due to Usman’s strong takedown defense and he struggled against Rashid Magomedov and Alex Oliveira in the same way.
In his 2016 loss to Michel Prazeres, meanwhile, ‘Durinho’ found himself taken down and smothered for the majority of the third round, something that led directly to his defeat via decision. Despite all of his jiu-jitsu skill, he couldn’t get anything going from his back.
Thus far in his run at welterweight, this hasn’t been a huge issue for him, but against a monstrous wrestler like Khamzat Chimaev, it might prove to be a major problem.
Essentially, there’s a chance that Burns may find himself taken down and, in turn, may well be unable to escape from underneath ‘Borz’, who possesses ruthless ground strikes as well as an excellent submission game.
Equally, if he finds himself outgunned standing, there’s a chance he won’t be able to take Chimaev down due to Chechen-born Swede's wrestling skills.
Either way, this looks like a bad match for ‘Durinho’ on paper and may well lead to him getting smashed just like Chimaev’s previous opponents.
#3. Khamzat Chimaev has the ability to test Gilbert Burns’ chin
While the majority of Khamzat Chimaev’s success in the UFC thus far has come from his skills on the ground, he’s also proven himself to be a very dangerous striker.
‘Borz’ famously turned out the lights on Gerald Meerschaert in just 17 seconds in their clash in 2020, nailing him with a right hand that left him unconscious and slumped against the fence. It was a demonstration of truly terrifying striking power – the kind of thing a fighter can’t simply learn.
Gilbert Burns has undoubtedly come on in leaps and bounds with his striking over the years, most notably dropping Kamaru Usman in the first round of their welterweight title bout last March. However, can he really compete with Chimaev standing?
From a technical perspective, ‘Durinho’ will be hopeful of landing the cleaner strikes, but from a power perspective, he’ll have to be very careful. The fact is that unfortunately for him, his chin simply isn’t impervious.
Sure, Burns has only ever been stopped via strikes twice, once by Usman and once by Dan Hooker in 2018, but he’s also been hurt in a number of his fights, most notably being dropped badly by Rashid Magomedov in their 2015 clash.
Given the power that Chimaev has demonstrated before, there’s every chance that he can test Burns’ chin in this bout. If he can land cleanly, then he’s certainly got the ability to put the Brazilian away in violent fashion.
#2. Gilbert Burns is getting no younger
Gilbert Burns hasn’t been considered a high-level welterweight contender for all that long. He only broke into the top 10 at 170 pounds following his knockout of Demian Maia in early 2020. However, he’s definitely no raw prospect.
In fact, ‘Durinho’ is a lot older than fans might suspect. A professional in MMA since 2012, Burns has now been with the UFC for nearly eight years and he’s now 35 years old, which means he’s probably nearing the end of his peak years as an athlete.
Sure, age doesn’t always matter in the UFC. Reigning welterweight champ Kamaru Usman is no spring chicken either at the age of 34. However, given that ‘Durinho’ is going to be facing a fighter in Khamzat Chimaev who is eight years younger than him and has far less miles on the clock, then it could be a problem.
More to the point, while Burns’ record of 20-4 is an underrated one, he’s also taken plenty of damage over the years, particularly during his UFC tenure. He’s been knocked out violently twice and has also been dropped in some of his other fights.
Add in all of the sparring he’s undoubtedly been through and there’s every chance that his age could catch up with him at any time.
Given the dangerous nature of this fight, against one of the UFC’s best prospects, it’d be a bad point for Father Time to come knocking for ‘Durinho’. Unfortunately for him, Chimaev might force his hand.
#1. Khamzat Chimaev has a ridiculous amount of momentum behind him
While success in the UFC largely comes down to a fighter’s ability in the octagon, it’s also difficult to ignore intangibles like momentum and self-belief. Right now, it’s arguable that no fighter possesses more of those two things than Khamzat Chimaev.
Ever since his debut in the octagon in 2020, the native of Chechnya has promised to “smash everyone” en route to claiming the UFC welterweight title. Thus far, he’s completely lived up to the hype.
Last September saw him face his toughest test to date in the form of Li Jingliang. Chimaev treated him like a tomato can, bodyslamming him with ease before choking him out in just over three minutes.
Sure, Gilbert Burns is on another level entirely in comparison to ‘The Leech’, but despite this, Chimaev will naturally still believe that he can destroy him, too. And given the fact that nobody’s even landed a single significant strike on him, why shouldn’t he believe that?
Essentially, Chimaev has the kind of aura of invincibility around him that can be very hard to crack, the kind of aura that took fighters like Conor McGregor and Khabib Nurmagomedov all the way to the top of the UFC.
Can ‘Borz’ follow in their footsteps? That remains to be seen, but his momentum could well be enough to get him past Burns this weekend, and in impressive fashion, too.
