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Well, it’s been a long time coming but by virtue of its main event alone, UFC 242 is probably the biggest UFC show of 2019. Sure, the card isn’t anywhere near as deep as say, UFC 235 or UFC 239, but with Conor McGregor sidelined, Khabib Nurmagomedov is probably the promotion’s biggest star right now and so we could be looking at a big-time box office hit here.
‘The Eagle’ defends his UFC Lightweight title against interim champ Dustin Poirier in the main event, and due to his presence as well as the card taking place in Abu Dhabi – the first UFC show there since April 2014 – there’s a heavy Russian/Dagestani flavor up and down the show, making it a fascinating one indeed.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier.
#1 Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Dustin Poirier
Well, one thing must be said for this one: there’s been so much speculation surrounding who Nurmagomedov would face next ever since he defeated Conor McGregor last October that it’s actually refreshing to see the route the UFC have taken. The promotion could’ve attempted to book a cash-grab fight like an instant rematch with the Irishman or a ‘superfight’ with the now-retired Georges St-Pierre, but instead, we’ve got a fight made purely on merit, and that’s a breath of fresh air.
Sure, this might not be a so-called ‘money fight’ as Poirier hasn’t quite entered the realm of superstardom yet, but it does represent the best two 155lbers on the planet – well, two of the best three, as I still feel Tony Ferguson would have a good chance against either of them – facing off against each other. Both men have been on amazing runs, but one run must end on Saturday. But who will it be?
It almost seems like a waste of time to break down Nurmagomedov’s skills at this point simply because every man and his dog knows what he’s coming into the Octagon to do. ‘The Eagle’ has become a decent – but not great – striker, but his bread and butter are in his grappling. Nurmagomedov comes into every fight with the same plan; to take his opponent down and beat them up en route to a TKO, decision, or merciful submission should it become available.
His stand-up game has improved from the wild style he once deployed into a more boxing-heavy attack – see his nice use of the jab against Al Iaquinta – but the Dagestani is still somewhat robotic on the feet and as Michael Johnson and McGregor showed before they lost to him on the ground, he is hittable. Even so, due to the power he packs in his punches, outright trading with him could be a mistake; just ask McGregor, who was knocked down by a wild Nurmagomedov right hand.
Poirier, on the other hand, is a little more unpredictable. Earlier in his career, he was a go-for-broke fighter in all areas, a brawler who would also hunt for submissions and was happy to take the fight to any area. More recently though he’s developed into one of the best strikers in the Lightweight division, building a dangerous game around insane levels of pressure boxing and a scary tendency to sense his opponent beginning to wilt, which allows him to suddenly turn up the heat and push for a finish.
Of course, the issue with that style is that ‘The Diamond’ tends to take a lot of punishment before his victories. He’s currently on a 4-fight win streak, but he took some serious shots from all 4 of those opponents before winning and when you factor in who they were – Anthony Pettis, Eddie Alvarez, Justin Gaethje and Max Holloway – it becomes a little worrying. Don’t forget that he’s also been knocked out cleanly twice, too, by McGregor and Michael Johnson. For now, though, Poirier seems to be able to weather punishment well.
Basically then, I could see this fight playing out in two ways, and both hinge on a simple issue: is Khabib’s cardio good enough for him to simply take Poirier down and punish him en route to a five-round decision? I just can’t see ‘The Eagle’ finishing Poirier early on and although he could definitely hurt him badly in the first few rounds, Poirier isn’t the type to simply wilt and fall on his sword as Edson Barboza did in his fight with Khabib.
That means Khabib is likely to throw everything he’s got in an attempt to finish ‘The Diamond’, and for me, I’ve got a sneaky feeling it’s going to lead to his own downfall. If Khabib gets at all tired come the fourth and fifth rounds, then Poirier is still going to be there and at the current time, I don’t think there’s anyone better at spotting a hurt and/or tired opponent and being able to turn up the heat at just the right moment.
I could be proven wrong here, of course; Khabib is a truly great fighter and nobody has solved the riddle in over a decade, but I’m going with Poirier here. I think he’ll take a beating in the first three rounds, but by the time the fourth rolls around he’ll inexplicably be the fresher man, and once that happens, I think he’ll become the predator, land the better shots, and shock everyone by putting Khabib away to claim the title.
The Pick: Poirier via fifth-round TKO
#2 Edson Barboza vs. Paul Felder
No offense to either of these two fighters, who are both fantastic to watch for the most part, but this is one of the weaker semi-main events we’re likely to find in 2019. That’s of course because the UFC are banking on the drawing power of Khabib being the selling point of this show, but even so – for a marquee pay-per-view they should really be doing a bit better in my opinion.
Anyhow – this is a rematch of a 2015 fight that saw Barboza claim a largely clear decision win over Felder, who it must be said, was probably out of his depth at that time. ‘The Irish Dragon’ only had two UFC fights to his name and while one was super-impressive – a spinning back fist KO of Danny Castillo – a flashy win over an aging opponent simply wasn’t enough to prepare him for the monster that was Barboza.
I use the term ‘was’ purposely because I honestly worry that the Barboza who was once one of the most feared 155lbers on the planet is now gone. Since 2017, ‘Junior’ is 1-3 in the Octagon, and two of those losses were the kind that can change a career for the worst. Firstly he was beaten to a pulp by Khabib Nurmagomedov, and then just four months later Kevin Lee used Khabib’s blueprint to do the same thing to the Brazilian.
Barboza rebounded by beating Dan Hooker in what was perhaps the single most criminal fight in UFC history – poor Hooker was brutalized and the fight could’ve been stopped four or five times before it mercifully was, late in the third round – but even then, he still took shots from the Kiwi that the pre-Khabib version probably wouldn’t have absorbed. Most recently, Justin Gaethje knocked him senseless in just over two minutes – the first time we’d seen Barboza outright knocked out in his 9-year UFC tenure.
Felder meanwhile is pretty much a better version of the one that lost to Barboza in 2015. He always did have a remarkably smooth striking style, but back then he tended to rely on big shots and wild spinning attacks a little too much. Now though, he seems a little sharper, a little more pinpoint, and his clinch work has notably improved to the point where his elbows from close quarters are incredibly dangerous.
His only two recent-ish losses? A doctor stoppage to the massively underrated Francisco Trinaldo in 2016, and more recently, a close loss to the much larger Mike Perry – a rare outing at 170lbs for Felder – that saw Perry win mainly by virtue of his harder-hitting style. Most recently Felder dealt impressively with the lanky style of James Vick, using leg kicks to slow him down and managing to tag him on numerous occasions despite having a reach disadvantage.
The 2015 version of the fight was a clear win for Barboza, but it was also closer than a 30-27 score would seem; Barboza definitely outstruck Felder, but he never came close to finishing him and took plenty of shots himself. The big difference? Largely Barboza’s superior speed. But after absorbing another 4 years of wear and tear, including some crazy wars and beatings, I wonder if he’s even that fast any more.
Throw in the fact that Barboza’s Achilles heel – issues with opponents who look to back him up aggressively and walk him down, and who can also avoid his counters – is now there for all to see and I think this is a winnable fight for Felder. Assuming he doesn’t come out passively and really pushes the pace of the fight I think he can get into Barboza’s face and take him out surprisingly early.
The Pick: Felder via first-round TKO
#3 Islam Makhachev vs. Davi Ramos
Well, thank the lord the reports of Makhachev being cut from the UFC for his (very small) part in the Khabib/McGregor brawl last year were inaccurate. Simply put, the man is one of the very best fighters out there at 155lbs in my opinion, even if he hasn’t quite proven it against top-level opposition just yet. For me that’s only a matter of time, and grappling whiz Ramos represents a slight step up from his most recent opponents, making this a watchable fight.
Essentially, Makhachev fights a lot like his teammate Khabib; he’s perhaps a little more aggressive when it comes to submissions than Nurmagomedov, and he’s probably a little more wild and loose with his striking – hence that silly KO loss to Adriano Martins in 2015 – but overall, his aim is pretty much the same, to take his opponent down and beat them up en route to a TKO or submission.
The issue here for him is that for once, there’s every chance he could actually be outgunned on the mat. Ramos isn’t just your run-of-the-mill BJJ black belt – he’s an Abu Dhabi gold medallist who can probably claim to be one of the best no-gi grapplers on the planet right now. And we’ve largely seen that in his UFC career thus far.
Sure, he lost a dull striking match to fellow grappling whiz Sergio Moraes in his Octagon debut, but that was a fight taken on very late notice. Since then he’s reeled off 4 straight wins, including 3 simple rear naked choke victories that were reminiscent of Rickson or Royce Gracie going to work in the formative years of the sport.
Does Makhachev really want to tangle on the ground with someone that dangerous? I’m honestly not sure. The old adage that punching a black belt in the face turns him into a brown belt and so forth may well be true, but it’s still a very risky proposition. Thankfully for Makhachev, Ramos hasn’t really shown himself to be on the elite level with his wrestling, while Islam himself is strong in that area. That means if nothing else, he should be able to control where the fight takes place.
That means that if he wishes, he can probably turn this into a striking match and I think that benefits him. Neither Makhachev or Ramos will be confused for a world-class kickboxer any time soon, but I think Makhachev is the more natural striker; Ramos has shown some power in his hands before and doesn’t look horribly stiff, but in terms of the kind of finishing ability that Makhachev has demonstrated, I think he lags behind.
There’s every chance that this fight goes wrong for Makhachev; he could take Ramos down and find himself out of his depth with a better grappler, or he could get too wild on the feet and find himself being tagged as he did against Martins, but in the end I think his slightly superior athleticism and striking skills should win him the day. Later in the fight he might even look to wrestle Ramos as he gets more tired and sweaty – and assuming he doesn’t do anything silly, he should be able to ride the fight out.
The Pick: Makhachev via unanimous decision
#4 Curtis Blaydes vs. Shamil Abdurakhimov
At one point it looked like 2019 was going to be the year Curtis Blaydes found himself challenging for the UFC Heavyweight title. He’d beaten Mark Hunt and Alistair Overeem impressively and all he had to do was take out an apparently gunshy Francis Ngannou, and a shot at Daniel Cormier was his. But to everyone’s shock Ngannou rediscovered his mojo and knocked Blaydes out in less than a minute last November, sending ‘Razor’ back to the drawing board.
Perhaps that’s unfair, actually. It’s not like Blaydes has been knocked out of title contention – he’s still clearly one of the best Heavyweights on the roster right now and proved that in March when he thoroughly ragdolled Justin Willis en route to a lopsided decision win. That’s why this is a strange fight of sorts.
Sure, Abdurakhimov is on a 3-fight win streak, most recently TKOing Marcin Tybura, but I’m not sure he really represents a step up from Willis for Blaydes. He’s tough, but I think Willis is a better striker and wrestler and if that were the fight, I’d take Willis 9 times out of 10.
That doesn’t mean Abdurakhimov can’t win here. He’s a sneakily decent striker and Blaydes’ chin has been cracked – obviously, Ngannou knocked him out, but Hunt also had him in a ton of trouble early on – but I just can’t see it myself. For me, he’s far too slow to beat an athlete the caliber of Blaydes, and ‘Razor’ is young enough that we’re probably likely to see an improvement in his overall game every time he fights.
More worryingly for Abdurakhimov, his last loss to Derrick Lewis saw him throw away a large lead on the scorecards and get TKO’d once Lewis put him on his back. And while Abdurakhimov is a solid grappler, Blaydes is one of the strongest wrestlers in UFC Heavyweight history, and actually has the record for most takedowns in the division, ever.
For me this should be business as usual for Blaydes; he’ll take Abdurakhimov down with surprising ease and probably beat him up on the ground for a TKO win. With Stipe Miocic vs. Francis Ngannou likely the next title fight, maybe 2020 will be the year that Blaydes makes his challenge?
The Pick: Blaydes via second-round TKO
#5 Mairbek Taisumov vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira
This fight is flying under the radar but it’s actually a sneakily brilliant clash on paper between two of the 155lbs division’s most underrated fighters. Ferreira is on a 4-fight win streak, most recently beating the tricky Rustam Khabilov, while Taisumov has won his last 6, knocking out 5 of those opponents in the process.
The elephant in the room? Taisumov is coming back from a ban for the PED stanozolol, essentially an anabolic steroid. Therefore it’s probably a little hard to predict how he’ll seem from a physical standpoint. Assuming he’s no worse off though – USADA did find that a supposed contaminated supplement was to blame - we’re looking at one of the most dangerous strikers in the division. ‘Beckan’ hits hard, hits from all kinds of areas and angles, and is highly aggressive.
Ferreira meanwhile isn’t quite as explosive a striker as Taisumov, but that doesn’t make him any less dangerous. In fact, one of his best UFC wins was a knockout over the overly wild Ramsey Nijem. Realistically though I don’t think he’s going to win a striking match here. Where he could win is on the ground, where he’s genuinely fantastic.
A BJJ black belt, Ferreira also has pretty good takedowns and on the ground, he’s extremely aggressive. He slices through guards like a knife through butter and once he finds himself in a dominant position, as he did against Jared Gordon and Kyle Nelson, he looks to punish his opponent until he finishes them off.
The fact that he was also able to out grapple Khabilov and Olivier Aubin-Mercier – two dangerous grapplers in their own right – is also massively impressive. It must be said, though, that only the powerful wrestler Michel Prazeres has been able to ground Taisumov. He couldn’t keep him down, either, and since then ‘Beckan’ has overcome another stifling top game artist in Desmond Green.
For me, this comes down to whether Taisumov can keep Ferreira from taking him down and taking a dominant position. Given his incredible reflexes, athleticism and striking skill I think he can, and that for me spells major problems for the Brazilian, who is likely outgunned on his feet.
The Pick: Taisumov via second-round TKO
#6 The Prelims: FX card
Given they’re now with ESPN I literally have no idea how the prelims for this card have found their way onto FX – formerly the home of UFC Fight Nights in the pre-Fox Sports 1 era. At least in the UK, we don’t have to deal with that kind of confusion!
At any rate, headlining this portion of the card is a Flyweight clash between Joanne Calderwood and Andrea Lee. Given the strange state of Women’s 125lbs right now the winner of this one could easily find themselves in a title fight as early as 2020. I like Lee here; I think the stand-up is probably even but I’d give ‘KGB’ a massive advantage on the ground, and Calderwood has also taken a lot more damage across her UFC tenure. Lee by submission is my pick.
At Featherweight, dangerous Khabib training partner Zubaira Tukhugov faces newcomer Lerone Murphy. I honestly don’t get this fight; Murphy is 5-0 but only started fighting on the UK regional scene in 2016, while Tukhugov is incredibly dangerous in all areas, and while he hasn’t fought himself since 2016 – he’s been under a ban from USADA for PED use – I just can’t see a newcomer handling him. Tukhugov via TKO is my pick.
Georgian newcomer Liana Jojua debuts at Bantamweight against veteran Sarah Moras and despite Jojua being thoroughly unproven at this level, I’m comfortably picking her here; Moras is a skilled ground fighter but struggles due to a lack of athleticism and more worryingly, she’s also 1-4 since 2015. I like Jojua by decision here.
Another newcomer, Lightweight Ottman Azaitar debuts against Teemu Packalen to round out this portion of the card. Azaitar – the brother of UFC Middleweight Abu – is a highly skilled and dangerous striker, and at 11-0 he looks like the real deal. This sounds like a good fight for him too – Packalen hasn’t fought since 2017, is relatively slow, and has trouble with explosive strikers. Azaitar by TKO is the likely outcome.
#7 The Prelims: UFC Fight Pass card
Fight Pass subscribers can check out four prelims this weekend and they’re actually pretty good. At the top of the card is a Welterweight match between Belal Muhammad and Takashi Sato. Sato looked excellent when he took out veteran Ben Saunders in April, but Saunders’ chin is compromised at this stage and I worry for the Japanese fighter here, as Muhammad is a powerful grappler as well as a decent striker. Muhammad by decision is my pick.
Also at Welterweight, veteran Nordine Taleb takes on Muslim Salikhov. An incredibly flashy striker, Salikhov hasn’t quite lived up to his pre-UFC hype, as he’s 1-1 in the Octagon and struggled hugely against the grinder Alex Garcia in his promotional debut. Taleb though is aging and may be past his best at this point. This is a winnable fight for Taleb but I worry about him against a faster and more explosive opponent so I’m going with Salikhov via KO.
At Middleweight, we’ve got a likely dull battle of grinders between Omari Akhmedov and Zak Cummings. If I’m honest I can’t think of a fight in 2019 that has me less interested; I like Akhmedov via decision as I think he’s slightly better in all areas.
Finally, Lightweights Don Madge and Fares Ziam face off in the opener, and this could go either way given how unproven both men are. I’m leaning towards the Octagon experience and taking Madge, but it could easily go Ziam’s way.
