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After last weekend’s UFC Fight Night from Vancouver delivered some of 2019’s most entertaining action, this week’s effort – UFC Fight Night 159 – has a lot to live up to. Thankfully, the show – which takes place in Mexico City, the 5th time the UFC has visited the city – has a lot of fights which sound excellent.
Sure, we’re a bit low on name value, but the card is full of exciting brawlers and hot prospects, so hopefully, we’ll be in for a night full of fun fights – even if the extreme altitude of the city might sap the cardio of the athletes in action.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 159: Rodriguez vs. Stephens.
#1 Yair Rodriguez vs Jeremy Stephens
Not only does this sound like an exciting fight on paper given the wild, all-action styles of both fighters, but it’s also an excellent match that pits a hot prospect against a wily veteran capable of shutting any opponent down in a second. If Rodriguez can beat Stephens, then he’d have to be considered a title contender at 145lbs, while if Stephens wins, it’d almost certainly guarantee him another big fight somewhere down the line.
It’s hard to believe it, but it’s almost been a year since we last saw Rodriguez in action in that genuinely insane fight with the Korean Zombie at the UFC’s 25th-anniversary show. For those who missed that classic war, Rodriguez – who was probably losing the fight – managed to uncork a bizarre no-look upward elbow to knock the Zombie out with literally a single second remaining in the fifth round. It was one of the best UFC highlight-reel moments of all time.
Unfortunately, the fact that ‘El Pantera’ broke his foot during that fight and has been on the shelf since has meant that his momentum has been slowed down a lot. But this is a chance for him to remind everyone exactly what he’s about and why he’s considered one of the top prospects in the game.
Flashiness is Rodriguez’s main calling card; his fundamentals are actually fine as we’ve seen him use a decent jab at times, his takedowns are relatively strong and he’ll throw regular strikes and combinations – including some excellent leg kicks – throughout his fights, but he’s also incredibly comfortable in throwing stuff like flying knees, spinning hook kicks and strikes from unusual angles.
We saw this weekend in the Michel Pereira vs. Tristan Connelly fight that wild attacks only work if you’ve got the all-round skills to back them up, and unlike Pereira, Rodriguez definitely has those skills. He’s also got the cardio to throw his wild combinations deep into the fight, as we saw in his crazy five-rounders with the Zombie and also with Alex Caceres.
As far as weaknesses go? Frankie Edgar absolutely dismantled the Mexican from the top, brutalizing him with punches and elbows after taking him down, but he’s been the only fighter to really outwrestle Rodriguez thus far, and given Stephens doesn’t tend to use his wrestling that doesn’t seem truly relevant for this fight. Jung did have success in basically outboxing Rodriguez, but while that does point to the fact that his wildness can be used against him, it’s worth noting that Rodriguez’s movement was likely hampered by the foot injury in that fight.
Stephens is a dangerous opponent for anyone in the division, simply because he hits ridiculously hard. It’s been his calling card since his debut back in 2007 and given there aren’t all that many other fighters from back then still having success in the UFC, it’s a testament to his skills that he’s still main eventing shows like this one. ‘Lil Heathen’ is on a two-fight skid right now, but you can hardly hold losses to Jose Aldo and Zabit Magomedsharipov against him.
Like other hard hitters though, Stephens’ power can sometimes work against him. While he’s capable of uncorking some insane knockouts – witness his finishes of Josh Emmett and Doo Ho Choi in 2018, or his brutal 2015 flying knee KO of Dennis Bermudez – it does mean that he’s very susceptible to leaving behind his more technical striking to simply swing for the fences, which got him into trouble against Aldo and has contributed to earlier losses too.
Stephens is definitely capable of a more nuanced, technical gameplan, as we saw when he picked Gilbert Melendez apart with leg kicks in 2017, but those kinds of showings have been few and far between for him. So how does he match up with Rodriguez? I’m honestly not sure.
Stephens did struggle with Magomedsharipov’s length and kicking-based striking game during their fight, while Renato Moicano notably picked him apart by mixing up his strikes from range and his takedowns. Interestingly, Stephens is a solid defensive wrestler, but due to his penchant for becoming overly emotional and swinging for the fences, he can be taken down by fighters who can cleverly time a double leg.
Rodriguez has a similar kicking game as Zabit, but he’s also shown much more of a penchant for brawling, his reach (71”) is equaled by Stephens’, and it’s hard to imagine him fighting in the same patient way that Moicano did. On the other hand, his cardio is far superior to Stephens’, he’s taken less damage over his career and judging on his fight with Jung, he can definitely take a heavy shot.
This is a winnable fight for Rodriguez if he can manage to keep Stephens at range and use his kicks to break him down while avoiding any brawling exchanges; if he can do that then I think he can also mix his takedowns in to either outwork Stephens for a decision, or perhaps take him out late on. If he comes out willing to swing for the fences, though? It could prove to be his downfall. I’m betting on Rodriguez here, but I’m not really 100% sure.
The Pick: Rodriguez via unanimous decision
#2 Carla Esparza vs Alexa Grasso
Another fight that sees a Mexican prospect taking on a more proven veteran, this is Grasso’s big chance to become the star that many fans pegged her to be when she first joined the UFC back in 2016 following an impressive run in Invicta FC. For Esparza meanwhile, it’s practically a must-win fight if she wants to remain a relevant contender in the division she once ruled over, albeit briefly.
The UFC’s first-ever Strawweight champion, Esparza won the title by beating Angela Hill, Tecia Torres, and Jessica Penne during the taping of TUF 20 before choking out a very raw Rose Namajunas in the finale. It seemed like Esparza’s excellent wrestling and submission game would make her a dominant champion, but then she ran into the buzzsaw-like Joanna Jedrzejczyk in her first title defense, and found herself destroyed.
To be honest, ‘Cookie Monster’ has never truly bounced back from that defeat. Sure, she’s had impressive performances and big wins since then; she stopped the rise of hot prospect Cynthia Calvillo with her wrestling and arguably beat Claudia Gadelha in their fight, but she’s also had 3 losses, her striking still looks a little stiff and the aura she had prior to that Jedrzejczyk fight is well and truly gone, as we saw when Tatiana Suarez basically destroyed her using her own wrestling-heavy style.
Grasso has had an equally up-and-down UFC tenure. She came into the Octagon with a lot of hype and outstruck Heather Jo Clark in her debut, but was then thoroughly outworked by the underrated Felice Herrig in her second fight. Since then she’s beaten 2 of 3 opponents – with only the monstrous Suarez defeating her – but she’s also missed weight once and has had serious knee surgery amongst other injuries, slowing her progress down.
It’s notable however that Grasso is still just 26 years old, and she’s coming off perhaps the best showing of her career to date, a boxing-heavy beatdown of former title challenger Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Esparza meanwhile is now 31, and while that’s not old per se, she has been fighting professionally since 2010, and mainly against extremely tough opponents.
Does Esparza have the skills to beat Grasso here? If she can ground her and keep her there, she probably does; she blanketed and beat up Calvillo from top position like it was 2014, for instance, but it’s worth remembering that Calvillo is a fighter who’s quite happy to fight off her back, while Grasso is far more likely to attempt to work back to her feet to unleash her striking.
And against Randa Markos – an excellent if inconsistent grappler – Grasso was able to escape from the bottom on a number of occasions, also stopping some of Markos’ takedowns and getting a couple of her own too. At 5’5” she’s also far taller than the 5’1” Esparza and appears to be much physically stronger, as well.
I like Grasso to win this fight; she seems like she’s just approaching her prime now whereas Esparza is likely coming to the end of hers if she hasn’t already passed it. If Grasso can stop the takedowns, especially early in the fight – and I think she can – then based on how she took Kowalkiewicz apart on the feet, I think she can uncork some big combinations on Esparza and maybe even stop her midway through the fight.
The Pick: Grasso via second-round TKO
#3 Brandon Moreno vs Askar Askarov
The UFC career of Brandon Moreno is fascinating purely because of the way he’s been treated; ‘The Assassin Baby’ surprised everyone by going on a 3-fight win streak following his appearance on TUF 24, but then ran into a wall when he lost to Sergio Pettis and Alexandre Pantoja, both high-level contenders at Flyweight.
Usually, that wouldn’t matter, but this was the UFC’s Flyweight division in 2018, and so following the two losses, Moreno was released from his contract. Given he was ranked in the top ten at the time, the release added more fuel to the idea that the UFC were preparing to cut the men’s 125lbs division altogether – but of course, since then Henry Cejudo has captured the UFC title and has proven a champion worthy of pushing.
So Moreno was thus re-signed to the UFC earlier in the year, and makes his return here – in his home country – to face debutant Askarov. The fact that the UFC are actually signing debutants at 125lbs rather than cutting fighters shows that a renewed effort to make the division work might be underway, so can Moreno become one of the more recognizable names on offer?
Well, he might be able to, but I don’t think it’ll be from this fight. It’s always a risk picking a UFC debutant against a fighter who’s had a lot of experience in the Octagon, but in this case, I’m willing to do so. From the footage I’ve seen of him, Askarov is an absolute monster.
Yet another fighter coming out of Dagestan, ‘Bullet’ is 10-0 and has never gone the distance. He hasn’t been fighting tomato cans, either – the majority of his victims have been fellow Russian prospects. Judging by what I’ve seen, his game is simple, but devastatingly effective; he walks his opponents down with powerful pressure-striking, gets them to the ground and then dominates them with a venomous submission game. This is a fighter who’s tapped opponents with anaconda chokes and even the ultra-rare twister.
Moreno is a very good fighter; his striking is solid enough and he’s dangerous on the ground, but I can’t help but think he’s overmatched here given Askarov’s all-round skills. Assuming Askarov doesn’t suffer from the dreaded ‘Octagon Shock’ I think he’ll run Moreno over in frightening fashion – marking himself out as a fighter to watch going forward at 125lbs.
The Pick: Askarov via first-round submission
#4 Martin Bravo vs Steven Peterson
It’s been a tricky UFC career thus far for TUF: Latin America 3 winner Bravo. He overcame Claudio Puelles back in 2016 to win the reality show, but since then he’s only managed one fight per year and has lost both; a brutal knockout at the hands of Humberto Bandenay, and more recently (well, June 2018) he was outpointed by Alex Caceres in a brawl that saw him take a beating on the feet, but almost come back to win in the end.
Bravo is a tough fighter, evidenced by what we’ve seen so far, but Bandenay showed he can be knocked out and outside of that, it’s hard to really put a finger on exactly how good he is given his long layoffs. Thankfully for him, if he wants a brawl, Peterson is likely to give him one.
‘Ocho’ arrived in the UFC in early 2018, a surprising pickup as he lost in his lone appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series. Since then he’s gone 1-3 in the Octagon, and with a record like that, usually it’d be a surprise to see him kept around. But Peterson has the kind of fighting style that the UFC brass loves – he simply comes forward swinging no matter what – and so it’s no surprise to see him booked again.
Most recently we saw Peterson beaten by both Luis Pena and Caceres in a pair of close fights that saw him outpointed. He arguably beat Caceres, but Pena clearly beat him by simply being more skilled. As always though, Peterson refused to go away and kept on swinging until the end, and was also willing to attack with submission attempts on the ground, too.
Basically I expect this one to be a dirty brawl – it could even be the Fight of the Night – and it should come down to who’s tougher. Given Peterson has shown a ludicrous chin and has only ever been KO’d once in his career – and he’s also been fighting much more regularly – I’m willing to go with him to spoil things for Bravo’s home country fans.
The Pick: Peterson via unanimous decision
#5 Irene Aldana vs Vanessa Melo
Initially, this one would’ve seen Mexico’s Aldana facing off with veteran Marion Reneau, but with Reneau out for undisclosed reasons, Brazil’s Melo has been brought in on around two weeks’ notice to make her UFC debut. And for me, that makes the fight a little easier to pick. Reneau might be over 40 years old now but she’s still an excellent athlete and would’ve provided a stern test for Aldana.
Melo on the other hand, from the footage I’ve seen on her, is largely unremarkable in all areas. She appears to be a decent striker and a relatively solid grappler, but just doesn’t seem to be a stand-out in any single department. The fact that she’s gone the distance in her last 6 fights – going to split decision in 3 of them – says a lot. She does have a victory over UFC fighter Molly McCann, but that was back in 2015 and McCann is a natural Flyweight.
Aldana, on the other hand, is one of the more exciting fighters in the Bantamweight division. An ultra-aggressive striker, ‘Robles’ loves to push the pace and wing quick, heavy combinations at her opponents. Naturally, that style has worked well for her thus far in her UFC tenure; she’s won the Fight of the Night award twice, and is clearly the kind of fighter that the promotion’s brass would like to push.
Weaknesses? Aldana’s ground game is clearly lacking in comparison to her striking. It’s not that she’s bad on the ground per say – she appeared to have improved massively in terms of her submission attacks in her most recent fights, as she tapped Bethe Correia with an armbar and didn’t look lost on the ground against Raquel Pennington, but her takedown defense still isn’t the strongest.
However, I don’t expect that to be an issue in this fight. From what I’ve seen she should enjoy quite a speed and power advantage over Melo, and assuming the Brazilian doesn’t spam takedowns from the word go, I think Aldana can hurt her on the feet before she really moves out of first gear. Whether she can get a finish is another story but I think this fight should be hers comfortably.
The Pick: Aldana via unanimous decision
#6 The Prelims: ESPN+ card
All of Saturday’s preliminary fights will be shown on ESPN+, meaning it’s another marathon show for those who choose to watch it all.
Headlining the prelims – as far as I’m aware – is a Flyweight bout between Sergio Pettis and Tyson Nam. It’s been a long road to the UFC for Nam, who exploded to fame back in 2012 when he knocked out then-Bellator Bantamweight champion Eduardo Dantas. A talented but inconsistent fighter, he’s since settled into a journeyman’s career, picking up a major win every now and then – like a head kick KO of Ali Bagautinov in 2017 – but he’s also racked up a handful of losses too. This is a tricky fight for him as he’s taken it on relatively short notice, and is also faced with a highly skilled and technical opponent in Pettis. Assuming Pettis can get back to 125lbs healthily after his excursion to 135lbs I like him to win a decision here, but Nam would be a decent underdog bet due to his striking power.
At Bantamweight, Jose Quinonez faces Carlos Huachin. Huachin came into the UFC as a late replacement and put up a good fight against the tough Raoni Barcelos, out striking him for a round before succumbing on the ground. Quinonez meanwhile has been around for years now; more of a brawler, he seemingly doesn’t have a lot of power standing but he’s super tough and has cardio for days. Quinonez seems like the more reliable fighter to me so I’ll take him to win a decision.
Exciting brawler Polo Reyes returns at Featherweight to take on Kyle Nelson in what should be a fun fight while it lasts. Reyes only knows one style – wade into the pocket with strikes and hope his opponent will engage him in a firefight. Nelson meanwhile looks more like a ground fighter, but I’m not convinced he’s all that great and while Reyes has seen bad results recently, they all came against pretty heavy hitters. Reyes by KO is my pick.
At Strawweight, veteran Angela Hill takes on a replacement in Ariane Carnelossi, who has at least managed about a month’s notice for the fight. Hill hasn’t quite lived up to the potential she showed in Invicta FC – I still suspect she was rushed into her UFC tenure somewhat – and Carnelossi does look like a tricky striker. Having said that, nobody’s really outright beaten Hill in a striking match yet so I’ll take her by decision.
At Light-Heavyweight, Paul Craig squares off with Vinicius Moreira in what should be an exciting fight, as always with Scotland’s Craig. This one is actually a different fight for Craig as he’s facing a fellow grappler rather than an explosive striker. I like Craig but I’m going for Moreira here I think; Craig struggled in a straight grappling match with Jimmy Crute and I feel like he does better when he’s faced with a striker that he can tire out. Moreira via submission is the pick.
Former title challenger Bethe Correia faces Sijara Eubanks at Bantamweight, a surprising choice for a prelim given the semi-high profile of both women. Correia probably needs a win to remain in the UFC; she has one win to her name since her title fight loss to Ronda Rousey in 2015, a contentious decision over Jessica Eye. She’s tough but seems to lack the athleticism to survive at the high end of the UFC. Eubanks, on the other hand, might be a little undersized at Bantamweight, but she’s a high-level athlete and an excellent grappler. I’m taking Eubanks by submission in this one.
Finally former TUF Latin America 3 finalist Claudio Puelles fights Marcos Mariano at 155lbs. Mariano showed very little in his February loss to Lando Vannata, but to be fair it was a tricky fight for his UFC debut. Outside of that, ‘Dhalsim’ is a lanky, dangerous striker who is also pretty inconsistent. Puelles meanwhile is raw but has shown some talent in the past despite being on a crazy layoff coming into this one. I’ll take Mariano via knockout, but it’s a bit of a coin flip.
