'%20x='0'%20y='0'%20height='100%25'%20width='100%25'%20%0A%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20xlink%3Ahref='data:image/jpg;base64,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'%3E%3C/image%3E%3C/svg%3E)
After last week’s blockbuster Conor McGregor-starring event, it’s back to the grind for the UFC this week as the promotion heads to Raleigh, North Carolina for a bit of an underwhelming Fight Night event.
Fight Night 166 has a tremendous main event in the form of Junior Dos Santos vs. Curtis Blaydes, but outside of that, well, the co-main between Michael Chiesa and Rafael Dos Anjos sounds okay, but that’s about it. Still, I’d rather see the bigger fights saved for pay-per-views, so a weaker card like this kind of makes sense.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 166: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos.
#1 Curtis Blaydes vs. Junior Dos Santos
While it’s not a complete #1 contender’s fight, this Heavyweight clash could definitely have major title implications for 2020. Right now it appears that the UFC are going to run a rematch between Stipe Miocic and Daniel Cormier as their next title fight, but with Francis Ngannou risking his top contender’s status in a match with Jairzinho Rozenstruik, if Blaydes can beat JDS convincingly, there’s every chance he jumps over ‘The Predator’ to take the next shot at the gold.
A classic prospect vs. veteran fight, the outcome of this one hinges on one simple thing in my opinion; can Blaydes manage to replicate the gameplan that worked so well for Miocic and Cain Velasquez in their wins over Dos Santos? Essentially, Dos Santos fights best at a boxing range, but if an opponent can corral him into the fence and rough him up from close range, he has a tendency to wilt and run out of steam.
That makes it sound easy, but of course, it’s not. JDS has excellent footwork, a stiff jab, and there’s a reason that Miocic and Velasquez – two all-time greats – are the only men who have really pulled it off. So can ‘Razor’ join them in their success over the Brazilian? It’s definitely possible.
Firstly, Blaydes is almost certainly the best wrestler that Dos Santos has fought since his clash with Miocic in 2017. Arguably, he’s actually superior in that department than both the current champion and Velasquez. He’s ridiculously powerful, sneakily quick and the only opponent he’s failed to take down was Ngannou in their second meeting.
Once he’s got an opponent down, ‘Razor’ is truly devastating, as evidenced by his violent TKO of Shamil Abdurakhimov in September. He loves to throw elbows and punches from any position, and never looks for a submission, instead preferring to punish his opponents with brutal strikes. In terms of his ground-and-pound, he’s up there with the likes of Shane Carwin and Brock Lesnar.
Where Blaydes falls down as compared to Velasquez and Miocic is in his striking. Miocic was a notable boxer prior to even entering the UFC, while Velasquez was capable of putting beautiful combinations together and while his defense wasn’t tremendous, in his prime his chin certainly was. Blaydes, on the other hand, hits hard, but he’s still somewhat predictable and rudimentary in his strikes – although of course, he may well have improved since his last outing.
He’s also not as damaging as either Velasquez or Miocic from inside the clinch – an area that both men hurt Dos Santos badly from, but that may not matter if he can instead just drag the Brazilian to the ground to beat him up.
For JDS to win this one, he must simply stay off the fence, avoid Blaydes’ takedown, and look to establish his jab in order to bait ‘Razor’ into an exchange, where he should then look to use his body shots and eventually the big right hand to take the wrestler out.
The issue with that is that while his boxing remains sharp – as we saw when he took out Tai Tuivasa and Blagoy Ivanov in 2018 – he’s slowed down over the years, understandable considering the damage he’s taken and his age (35) and that means that he’s more likely to be caught by a powerful but less skilled striker. And judging by his recent form – and KO loss to Ngannou – his chin is no longer what it was.
Overall, I just can’t see Dos Santos being able to keep Blaydes at range here, and if he can’t do that he’s almost certainly going to lose. ‘Razor’ must know that with an impressive victory here, a title shot could be his – and so I think he’ll walk JDS down, pin him into the cage, take him down and smash him to pieces there en route to a TKO win.
The Pick: Blaydes via second-round TKO
#2 Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Michael Chiesa
This is a big Welterweight fight because, with a win, Chiesa would almost certainly enter into title contention; Dos Anjos isn’t quite what he was a few years ago, but he’s still one of the most dangerous fighters out there at 170lbs and a win over him means more than a win over almost any other fighter in the division.
So can the TUF 15 winner pull this one-off? It’s a tricky fight to call in my eyes and should come down to whether Chiesa – a former Lightweight – has the strength and power to wear Dos Anjos out in a similar fashion to how the most recent fighters to beat him did.
‘RDA’ has had a somewhat up-and-down run since moving to Welterweight in 2017; he’s defeated Tarec Saffiedine, Neil Magny, Robbie Lawler, and Kevin Lee, but was well beaten by Colby Covington, Kamaru Usman, and Leon Edwards. Essentially, he’s beaten three striking-based fighters not renowned for their wrestling and strength, and lost to three bigger, stronger Welterweights who are amongst the best wrestlers in the division.
Lee is the outlier and perhaps the fighter most worth looking at in terms of this fight; like Chiesa and RDA himself, he moved up from 155lbs after struggling to make the Lightweight limit, and like Chiesa, he’s largely known for a game that heavily relies on his power and wrestling. But after a fast start, he blew up entirely against Dos Anjos and wound up being submitted after looking completely exhausted.
So can RDA drag Chiesa into deep waters and drown him as he did to ‘The Motown Phenom’? I’m betting on no. Firstly, while Lee defeated Chiesa in their fight in 2017, I’m not sure he’s actually a better overall grappler than ‘Maverick’; he may be a better wrestler, but Chiesa’s positioning, patience, and back-taking skills are all excellent.
More to the point, when Lee moved up to 170lbs, he packed on a lot of muscle to do so, ending up with a hugely stocky physique at 5’9”. Chiesa, on the other hand, has a far bigger frame, and at 6’1” he looks much more of a natural Welterweight than ‘The Motown Phenom’ – and that means he’s a more natural Welterweight than Dos Anjos, too.
For me this is a winnable fight for Dos Anjos if he can somehow force Chiesa to stand and strike with him, but for all his grappling skills, he was unable to do that against Usman, Covington, and Edwards – and I’m willing to bet that Chiesa is almost certainly as good a wrestler as ‘Rocky’, who was initially known as a kickboxer.
Overall I expect this one to follow the same pattern as those fights; Dos Anjos might have some success standing and may come close to a submission or two, but overall I think Chiesa has the power and strength from the clinch and on the ground to hold him down and out-position him, landing enough strikes and gaining enough dominance along the way to take a decision.
The Pick: Chiesa via unanimous decision
#3 Jordan Espinosa vs. Alex Perez
The UFC doesn’t often showcase their men’s Flyweight division – even top contenders like Jussier Formiga and Deiveson Figueiredo have been relegated to the prelims over recent years – so it’s very surprising to see this 125lbs tilt on the main card, especially when you consider that Espinosa is coming off a loss to Matt Schnell in his last fight.
Both of these men are more grappling-based fighters; Perez burst onto the scene with a pair of anaconda choke wins in 2017, but in his UFC fights he’s mainly displayed his excellent striking skills; he showed brutal punching power in his knockout win over Jose Torres in 2018 and comfortably outstruck Mark De La Rosa in his last victory.
Espinosa meanwhile is 14-6 overall, but has much less UFC experience than Perez and has just one win in the promotion. His highlight reel suggests an excellent offensive fighter, but it’s worth noting that further footage points at the fact that he’s mostly flash, throwing a lot of low-percentage moves that do a ton of damage if they come off, but don’t always work.
For me Perez is the more polished fighter here; he’s the better wrestler, and even if both men have plenty of submissions on their ledgers, I suspect he’s the better grappler too. You can’t count Espinosa out because Perez was KO’d at the hands of Joseph Benavidez in 2018 and isn’t the best defensive fighter, but then his wrestling could be a big equalizer if he gets hurt.
Can he pull out a finish? I’m not too sure, but I’m quite confident that this should be Perez’s fight to lose.
The Pick: Perez via unanimous decision
#4 Hannah Cifers vs. Angela Hill
Another somewhat strange pick for a main card bout, these two Strawweights are both coming off wins – Cifers has two in a row, in fact – and yet due to relatively recent losses, they’re also miles away from the title picture.
Angela Hill has fought the majority of her professional career in the UFC; she went 1-2 in an initial, post-TUF run with the promotion before being released, and then won Invicta’s Strawweight title, going 4-0 there before her 2017 return. Since then she’s been very much up-and-down, going 4-5 in the years that have followed.
The biggest strength ‘Overkill’ has is her striking; a formidable kickboxer, Hill’s lanky frame – she stands at just 5’3”, but has a 64” reach – means that she can chain together combinations from range, and while she doesn’t pack a serious amount of power, she’s more than capable of doing plenty of damage, and her technical skills are solid too.
In terms of weaknesses, that lack of power usually allows her opponents to stay in the fight – and due to her relatively undeveloped ground game, it’s often become easy for foes to outwork her down the stretch to pick up a decision.
Cifers is a little harder to get a grasp on; she was overwhelmed by Maycee Barber’s aggression in her UFC debut, and although she’s since beaten Jodie Esquibel and Polyana Viana, neither performance was truly convincing. She largely outpointed both opponents standing, but Viana in all honesty isn’t a UFC-level fighter, while Esquibel is miles past her prime at this point.
It’s worth noting that Cifers does have the same reach as Hill, meaning ‘Overkill’ may not be able to snipe at her as easily from the outside as she’s done to some opponents in the past, but overall I like her technical striking to be enough to edge a decision in this one.
The Pick: Hill via split decision
#5 Jamahal Hill vs. Darko Stosic
Light-Heavyweight has been somewhat of a wasteland for a few years now; the old PRIDE veterans are nearly all gone, the UFC legends that fought them are practically gone too, and Jon Jones has beaten back any contender who has stepped up. Thankfully, there seems to be a new generation arriving – Dominick Reyes, Aleksandar Rakic, Magomed Ankalaev and so on – and so the future could be bright for 205lbs.
Are either of these two amongst said new generation? Well, Stosic doesn’t appear to be. The Serbian started well in the UFC with a win over Jeremy Kimball, but then put together a pair of poor showings in 2019, losing to both Devin Clark and Kennedy Nzechukwu. The latter bout was simply diabolical; Stosic should’ve won but had two points deducted for ridiculous groin strikes, and both men gassed out horribly, which just doesn’t bode well going forward.
Hill meanwhile appears to hit hard – half of his wins have come by KO or TKO – and looks to be a pretty decent athlete, but at 6-0 it’s a bit hard to really get a feel for how good he is. He does have a couple of decision wins on his ledger – one being a five-round win over fellow UFC fighter Dequan Townsend – and so that at least bodes well for his cardio.
In all honesty, based on Stosic’s previous fight I’m just not enthused about seeing this fight. The best hope is that Hill somehow gets the Serbian out of there quickly, but it’s tricky to tell considering his lack of experience at this level. I’ll take the risk and go with him by KO.
The Pick: Hill via first-round TKO
#6 The Prelims: ESPN+ card
All of this weekend’s prelims will be on ESPN+, meaning it’ll be a marathon on the streaming service for anyone wishing to watch the entire card.
At the top of the prelims is a Middleweight clash between Bevon Lewis and Dequan Townsend. Lewis is blessed with a fantastic nickname – ‘The Extraordinary Gentleman’ – but hasn’t shown all that much in the UFC as his first two fights ended in losses. Townsend meanwhile lost to Dalcha Lungiambula in his debut, but acquitted himself well considering he took the fight on late notice. He’s also far more experienced, having 30 fights to Lewis’s 8. I’m going with Townsend via decision here.
At Featherweight, we’ve got an intriguing fight between Arnold Allen and Nik Lentz. I’m honestly not sure why this isn’t on the main card as it’s a fantastic match; Allen is a blue-chip prospect fighting out of Firas Zahabi’s camp, and he’s 6-0 in the UFC and is surely on the cusp of title contention. He was initially pegged to fight Josh Emmett in a huge fight here, but is instead matched with tough veteran Lentz, who’s been in the UFC for a decade now and is still a tricky match for most. However, ‘The Carny’ is not as durable as he once was, and more to the point, I feel like he’s outgunned in the grappling area here, which isn’t usually the case. I think Allen gets him out of there in impressive fashion – call it a first-round TKO in fact.
Justine Kish returns at Flyweight to take on the ultra-tough Lucie Pudilova, and given both women are on losing streaks, the loser may well end up cut. I like Pudilova in this one, as she’s the bigger fighter, and is extremely powerful inside the clinch, particularly with her elbow strikes. Plus, there’s no shame in her losses to Irene Aldana, Liz Carmouche or Antonina Shevchenko. Pudilova by decision is my pick.
At Bantamweight, Felipe Colares faces Montel Jackson. This is another solid fight; Colares picked up his first UFC win in July, while Jackson has two UFC victories to his name, over two notable opponents too in Andre Soukhamthath and Brian Kelleher. I’m going with Jackson here, as he seems to be the more explosive athlete and Colares didn’t appear to have much in the way of power or finishing skills in his previous fights. Jackson via TKO is my pick.
In a Bantamweight match, veteran Sara McMann returns from nearly two years away to take on Sweden’s ‘Elbow Queen’ Lina Lansberg. This one sounds like it could be a watershed moment for Lansberg – McMann is 39 years old, is coming off maternity leave, and even before she departed, she’d lost her last two fights in pretty convincing fashion, while ‘Elbow Queen’ is coming off a huge win over top prospect Macy Chiasson. I’ll take Lansberg via decision here.
Brett Johns is back after a long layoff due to injuries to take on newcomer Tony Gravely, who emerged from Dana White’s Contender Series last summer. Gravely looks like an interesting prospect; incredibly quick and explosive, he’s got just 1 loss in his last 12 fights, and has 8 KO’s amongst his 19 wins. With Johns coming off a layoff, could he be susceptible to being caught with something nasty? For sure, but then ‘The Pikey’ is a hugely talented fighter and it’s hard to count his losses to Pedro Munhoz and Aljamain Sterling – two title contenders – against him. Given the majority of Gravely’s victims were low-level fighters, I like Johns to win this one by decision after a tough battle.
Finally, at Featherweight Herbert Burns faces Nate Landwehr. Burns – the brother of the UFC’s Gilbert – looks like a talented grappler with a lot of athleticism and power, but he’s got less experience than Landwehr, who has been fighting – and winning – on the tough Russian circuit. Burns might have a bright future ahead of him but I’m going with the slight upset here and taking Landwehr to grind out a decision.
