UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik - Predictions and Picks

The UFC returns to Washington DC for the first time since 2011 this weekend for the final ESPN show of 2019. It’s been a long few weeks since the last UFC show, meaning that despite this one lacking some name value, it’s a more than welcome return for the biggest MMA promotion in the world.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik.

#1 Alistair Overeem vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Veteran Alistair Overeem is looking for his third win in a row

The main event for this show was initially supposed to see Alistair Overeem taking on Walt Harris, but due to Harris’s terrible personal news – his stepdaughter was kidnapped and found dead a month after her disappearance – up-and-comer Jairzinho Rozenstruik has stepped in to face off with the veteran, giving us an intriguing Heavyweight clash.

Unbeaten in MMA at 9-0, Suriname’s Rozenstruik joined the UFC in 2019 after an extensive kickboxing career, and he’s parlayed those striking skills to tremendous use thus far inside the Octagon. Junior Albini and Allen Crowder were dealt with in impressive fashion in his first two fights, while his last outing – just a month ago – saw him turn out the lights on former UFC Heavyweight champ Andrei Arlovski.

What does Rozenstruik bring to the table? For a huge guy – 6’2”, 246lbs - ‘Bigi Boy’ is surprisingly quick and agile, but most notably, he hits incredibly hard. Unlike say, Francis Ngannou, who clearly packs insane power into his punches, Rozenstruik is more comparable to someone like Mark Hunt; he doesn’t appear to be punching with much force, but when he hits opponents, they go down. Just ask Arlovski, who was knocked absolutely silly by a simple jab.

Could that be worrying for Overeem? For sure. The Dutch veteran is still just 39 years old, but he’s been fighting professionally for 20 years and this fight will be the 64th in his MMA career alone. And while his chin was never a strong point, in recent fights we’ve seen him wobbled from strikes that haven’t been all that hard.

With that said, those 20 years of experience will likely serve ‘The Reem’ well here. Rozenstruik might be perfect in his UFC career thus far, but against Albini, he spent the majority of the first round on his back or inside the clinch. Granted, ‘Bigi Boy’ was able to get free to eventually TKO the Brazilian, but if Overeem can replicate that gameplan, he can definitely win.

And despite being a world-class kickboxer in his own right – famously winning the prestigious K-1 Grand Prix in 2010 – the Dutchman has proven himself to be a wily veteran who doesn’t always need to rely on his striking skills, especially not in dangerous fights with heavy hitters. After being violently KO’d by Ngannou when they fought in December 2017, Overeem has taken a more safety-first approach, and it’s worked for him.

Wary of Sergei Pavlovich’s power, for instance, Overeem used his underrated wrestling to secure a takedown before finishing the Russian with violent ground-and-pound. And against Alexei Oleinik, he focused on attacks from the clinch – avoiding the Russian’s ground game and his wild strikes from the outside – before breaking him down with knees to the body en route to a TKO.

Rozenstruik can definitely win this fight; if he catches ‘The Reem’ cleanly then it could be goodnight for the veteran. But overall, I’ve got to favour Overeem here. ‘Bigi Boy’ will likely be feeling the pressure in his first UFC main event, while the Dutchman has literally seen it all.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see Overeem get stunned, but I think he’s going to be able to get the Surinamese fighter to the ground, and from there he’ll finish him off, most likely with his underrated ground-and-pound or potentially with a submission.

The Pick: Overeem via first round TKO

#2 Marina Rodriguez vs. Cynthia Calvillo

Cynthia Calvillo could have her hands full with Marina Rodriguez

Another fight that’s been changed, originally this Strawweight tilt would’ve seen Calvillo facing former title challenger Claudia Gadelha, but with the Brazilian sidelined with a hand injury, Rodriguez stepped in around six weeks ago.

The last time we saw Calvillo in action was back in February; she defeated Cortney Casey in a pretty impressive showing for her, as she outstruck ‘Cast Iron’ essentially for three rounds straight.

A venomous boxer, Calvillo is equally dangerous on the ground, but doesn’t always fight to her strengths depending on her opponent. That hasn’t held her back too much as her only loss thus far was to former champ Carla Esparza, but it was notable that she could’ve gone for more takedowns against Casey – whose takedown defense is notoriously poor.

Rodriguez meanwhile is another unbeaten fighter – a draw against the underrated Randa Markos is the only blot on her ledger – and she most recently defeated perennial contender Tecia Torres via decision. The performance was highly impressive, as the Brazilian used her range to avoid Torres’ boxing combinations to work her over with kicks and, later in the fight, on the ground.

This one then is a tricky fight to pick; both women are highly skilled in all areas, and will be bringing a ton of confidence into the Octagon. You’d probably say Calvillo has faced the tougher opponents, but I’m not sure that’s true – Rodriguez’s record is full of questionable opposition on the regional scene, but Torres is the best opponent either woman has taken on.

I think I’m leaning towards Rodriguez here though and it’s for a couple of reasons. Firstly, she’s the rangier fighter – a reach of 67” compared to Calvillo’s 64” – and with Calvillo’s tendency to box rather than kickbox, there’s every chance she can use a similar gameplan to the one she used against Torres to great effect.

Secondly, while Calvillo is a very dangerous grappler – she has four submissions on her record including two in the UFC – she’s shown a tendency not to use that side of her game and most notably against Esparza, she was worryingly happy to lose striking exchanges and still not really look for takedowns.

Add in the fact that Rodriguez is a more than capable grappler in her own right, and even if the Californian does get her down, it could be a wash on the mat.

I could be very wrong here as this is a difficult fight to pick, but I’m siding with the Brazilian to do just enough to win across three rounds.

The Pick: Rodriguez via unanimous decision

#3 Stefan Struve vs. Ben Rothwell

Ben Rothwell hasn't won a fight since 2016

This one is a very curious fight, largely because Stefan Struve actually announced his retirement back in February after his win over Marcos Rogerio De Lima, and so it’s unexpected to see him return so quickly. At 31 he’s still very young, but he’s taken a lot of damage during his MMA career and has had numerous health issues too. Is it a mistake for him to be coming back? Quite possibly.

Rothwell hasn’t had the best time of things as of late either; he hasn’t won since his 2016 submission of Josh Barnett, as he spent the best part of three years on the shelf following a positive test for PEDs and a lengthy ban, returning in February to lose to Blagoy Ivanov and most recently Andrei Arlovski.

Basically then, this is a battle of two solid but limited Heavyweights; either Rothwell will find a way to get inside Struve’s ludicrous range – he has an 84.5” reach and stands at 7’0” – to land one of his powerful, clubbing punches, or Struve will manage to keep the plodding American at distance and pick him apart over three rounds.

Rothwell was never the fastest fighter on the roster, but prior to his 2019 return he was usually able to find a way to land a big shot, as he was being picked apart by both Brandon Vera and Alistair Overeem before getting inside to knock them out with clubbing blows. Junior Dos Santos beat him almost purely by using a jab though, which should give Struve some hope.

The problem though is that ‘Skyscraper’ has never had a great jab, despite his massive reach. What’s more, he’s always been susceptible to a big punch over the top – even the severely undersized De Lima dropped him in the early going – and doesn’t have a good chin by any means.

Therefore, it’s hard to see the Dutchman following in the steps of Ivanov – who basically squeaked past Rothwell despite taking some heavy shots – and Arlovski, who used his footwork and movement to pick the bigger man apart. Struve is probably better on the ground, but it’s hard to see him getting the fight there either, simply due to Rothwell’s size and the Dutchman’s lack of wrestling background.

Overall I don’t think Rothwell has too much to offer to the Heavyweight division these days, but this is definitely a winnable fight for him based purely on the styles of both men. Struve is too plodding to pick ‘Big Ben’ apart using his footwork, and his chin just can’t hold up to big shots any more.

The Pick: Rothwell via second round KO

#4 Aspen Ladd vs. Yana Kunitskaya

Can Aspen Ladd bounce back from her first career loss?

I was surprised when I saw this fight had been booked at Bantamweight; after struggling to make the 135lbs limit in her July fight with Germaine de Randamie – even trembling on the scale – I fully expected Aspen Ladd to move up to 145lbs for her next fight. Instead though she’s facing a former Featherweight title challenger in Kunitskaya here in what sounds like a winnable fight for her.

Russia’s Kunitskaya is currently 2-1 in the UFC, following her loss to Cris Cyborg with a pair of solid wins at 135lbs, but it’s been notable that her biggest strength has appeared to be her size. She practically bullied Marion Reneau around in their fight in March, and was also able to beat Lina Lansberg in her own wheelhouse – the clinch – late last year.

The problem for her in this fight is that Ladd is also a huge 135lber – hence the issues making weight – and she’s become accustomed to taking her opponents down and absolutely destroying them from the top position, as she most famously did to former title challenger Tonya Evinger – who coincidentally holds a win over Kunitskaya when both were fighting under the Invicta banner.

Ladd is a somewhat stiff striker and can definitely be hit – as we saw when De Randamie stopped her in July – but she’s excellent in the clinch and is a real powerhouse when it comes to securing a takedown from close range.

Kunitskaya’s best hope for this fight then would be to draw Ladd into a brawl; ‘Foxy’ isn’t really renowned for her range kickboxing, but she hits hard and Ladd is there to be hit if they do exchange wildly.

In the end though, I can’t see them fighting from range for too long and if the distance does get closed, I think Ladd is big and strong enough to get a takedown, and from there she should be able to punish Kunitskaya from the top. If she can do that, then judging by the way Cyborg finished ‘Foxy’ off from the top, I think there’s every chance she can get a TKO.

The Pick: Ladd via second round TKO

#5 Cody Stamann vs. Song Yadong

Could Song Yadong become the UFC's second Chinese champion?

We’ve already seen the UFC crown its first Chinese champion this year; Weili Zhang claimed the Strawweight title by defeating Jessica Andrade, but prior to Zhang’s rise, Song Yadong was probably a fair pick as a potential champion from China too. The heavy-handed striker is 4-0 in the UFC thus far, and most recently knocked out Alejandro Perez in violent fashion in July.

Curiously enough, his opponent here, Stamann, also defeated Perez in his last fight, although he didn’t finish him as Yadong was able to. A gritty competitor, Stamann has largely made his name by being a hard-nosed fighter who’s very tricky to beat and who can grind down his opponents in all areas.

His most impressive performance? Probably the way in which he dealt with a tremendously athletic, dangerous opponent in Tom Duquesnoy – which is relevant to this fight because Yadong is closer to Duquesnoy than any of Stamann’s other opponents.

An explosive athlete, Yadong has more of a fireplug-type build than Duquesnoy despite being an inch taller, but ‘The Kung Fu Monkey’ is certainly similar when it comes to throwing heavy power in his strikes. His knockout of Perez was stunningly brutal, as was his elbow KO of Felipe Arantes in 2018. He also had Vince Morales hurt on a couple of occasions in their fight, although Morales did enough to stay in the fight throughout.

Stamann has never been KO’d in 20 fights, though, which makes this a tricky one for Yadong. If he’s unable to take Stamann out, can he fend him off across three rounds without being dragged into a more grinding affair as Duquesnoy was?

I’m honestly not too sure. We also haven’t seen all that much of Yadong’s ground game, as outside of a front choke submission of the overmatched Bharat Khandare, he just hasn’t had to use it.

That’s a bit worrying given the wrestling game that ‘The Spartan’ brings to the table; Stamann held his own with Aljamain Sterling until he was submitted, and he also largely got the better of veteran Bryan Caraway when they tied up. Can he take Yadong down? I’m not sure, but if he gets a couple of takedowns and imposes his game, the Chinese fighter could end up getting tired.

I’d like to see Yadong win this one as he’s the more exciting prospect going forward, but I just can’t trust him against someone as battle-hardened as Stamann. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him knock Stamann out early, but I’m going with ‘The Spartan’ to wear him down and take a decision.

The Pick: Stamann via unanimous decision

#6 The Prelims: ESPN card

Rob Font headlines this week's prelim card against Ricky Simon

The top three prelim fights this weekend will be shown on the ESPN network too, and headlining is a Bantamweight clash between Ricky Simon and Rob Font. Font hasn’t been seen in almost a year; he’s had two opponents pull out of fights with him due to injuries, which is more bad luck than anything else.

Simon meanwhile saw a big winning streak snapped by Urijah Faber in July, but prior to that he’d looked like a potential contender in the division. For me this depends on whether Simon can get inside Font’s reach, but given he’s only two inches down himself, I think his more energetic style can do enough to outwork him for a decision.

At Welterweight, we’ve got a battle of two real veterans as Thiago Alves takes on Tim Means. After a bad 2018 I actually thought Alves should’ve retired, but he’s not looked bad at all this year, outpointing Max Griffin and then coming close to a win over the hyper-aggressive Laureano Staropoli in May.

Means meanwhile is on a bad run; 1-3 in his last 4, and unless he can catch Alves cleanly and knock him out, I’m not convinced he can win this one. I’ll go with Alves via decision, but to see Means stop him wouldn’t be a shocker.

The unbeaten Bryce Mitchell takes on Matt Sayles at Featherweight, in what should be a close one to call between two relatively well-rounded fighters. I like Mitchell here, as I think he’s slightly better in all areas. I’ll go with him by close decision.

#7 The Prelims: ESPN+ card

Matt Wiman has been fighting for fifteen years

Saturday’s early prelims will take place on ESPN+. At the top of that portion of the card is a Lightweight fight between longtime veteran Matt Wiman and newcomer Joe Solecki, a graduate of Dana White’s Contender Series. A few years ago I’d have picked Wiman here, but the reality is that he’s 26 years old, has 15 years of fights under his belt and was TKO’d in his only fight since 2014. I’ll take Solecki here via TKO despite him being unproven.

At Middleweight Trevor Smith faces late replacement Makhmud Muradov. A tough grinder with a solid grappling game, Smith has been around for a decade but has never truly impressed in the UFC, while Uzbekistan’s Muradov looked impressive in his recent win over Alessio Di Chirico. Despite the late notice I like Muradov by TKO in this one; he’s the younger, hungrier fighter and he looks extremely dangerous to me.

At Strawweight, Virna Jandiroba faces late replacement Mallory Martin. Martin, a training partner of former title challenger Cat Zingano, has a solid record and looks decent enough but I think she’s overmatched here; Jandiroba is a former Invicta champion and while she lost to Carla Esparza in her UFC debut, there’s no shame in that. I like Jandiroba by decision in this one.

Finally at Featherweight, Billy Quarantillo takes on Jacob Kilburn. Kilburn is taking this fight on super-late notice to replace Chris Fishgold, but the hard-hitting striker might be in trouble here, as Quarantillo is more experienced and is strong in all areas. I’m taking Quarantillo here by decision.