UFC Predictions: UFC 269: Charles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier

This weekend marks the final UFC pay-per-view of 2021 as the promotion heads to Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena for UFC 269: Charles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier.

UFC 269 features two title fights and a number of excellent bouts underneath, even if it lost one of its best fights in the form of Jorge Masvidal vs. Leon Edwards.

Can this show deliver in the same way that blockbusters like UFC 267 and UFC 261 have this year? Only time will tell.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 269: Charles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier.

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#1. UFC lightweight title: Charles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier

Can Charles Oliveira hold onto his UFC lightweight title against Dustin Poirier?

If Charles Oliveira’s title win over Michael Chandler at UFC 262 marked the beginning of a new era in the UFC’s lightweight division, then this fight is essentially where the division moves on from Khabib Nurmagomedov's reign for good.

Following his win over Conor McGregor at UFC 257 in January, Dustin Poirier probably should’ve fought for the title next. However, ‘The Diamond’ chose to end his trilogy with McGregor, which allowed Chandler to slip into the fight with Oliveira instead.

Thankfully, we’ve got to this fight eventually and in the post-Khabib world, it really does mark a meeting of the best two 155lbers in the world.

Nobody really expected Oliveira to get this far. ‘Do Bronx’ debuted in the UFC back in 2010 and while he was always capable of brilliance in the octagon, he always seemed too fragile to really get to the top of his division, whether that was featherweight or lightweight.

However, it was easy to forget how young the Brazilian was when he debuted, just 20 years old, and at some point as he approached his late 20’s, something changed for him. Oliveira put a little more muscle onto his frame, improved his striking and ever since he submitted Clay Guida at UFC 225 in 2018, he’s been on an absolute tear.

‘Do Bronx’ is now on a lengthy nine-fight win streak, with his opponents getting progressively trickier until he downed Chandler in May to claim the vacant UFC lightweight title.

That fight also marked a major change for Oliveira in that it was the first time on this current run that we’d really seen him badly hurt. Chandler dropped him in the first round and basically destroyed him on the ground, only for the once-fragile Brazilian to recover to knock the former Bellator champion out in the second round.

Poirier, meanwhile, has been on quite the journey of his own since debuting in the UFC back in 2011. Once largely a grappling-based fighter, ‘The Diamond’ now possesses one of the best pressure-boxing games in the UFC, something he’s used to defeat the likes of McGregor, Justin Gaethje and Eddie Alvarez.

So how do these two match up? On the surface of things, you’d probably give Oliveira the advantage on the ground and Poirier the advantage standing. However, that’d probably be doing each man’s skills a disservice, as they’ve both displayed finishing abilities in all areas.

Essentially then, this one could almost definitely go either way. Right now, it feels like the momentum lies slightly more with Oliveira. Sure, Poirier is coming off wins over McGregor, but how relevant the Irishman truly is at this point is a question mark.

‘Do Bronx’, on the other hand, has wrecked every fighter put in front of him since 2018. With 14 submissions to his name, he’s basically the most dangerous grappler in UFC history.

Can he get Poirier to the ground and submit him? ‘The Diamond’ has excellent wrestling, but Oliveira’s takedowns have improved dramatically and more to the point, he’s also deadly from the bottom too.

Given that we saw Poirier worked over on the mat by Khabib in his last loss, it’s worth a guess that Oliveira can do something similar and win this hugely unpredictable fight by submission.

The Pick: Oliveira via second-round submission

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#2. UFC bantamweight title: Amanda Nunes vs. Julianna Pena

Could Julianna Pena be the fighter to dethrone the great Amanda Nunes?

At this stage, any UFC fight involving Amanda Nunes is an event in its own right. Sure, she’ll never be as big of a star as someone like Conor McGregor or Ronda Rousey, but she’s far and away the greatest female fighter in MMA history now, meaning any chance to see her in action is worth it.

Since winning the UFC bantamweight title from Miesha Tate in 2016, she’s wrecked anyone who she’s come up against. The 'Lioness’ has beaten the likes of Rousey, Valentina Shevchenko and Holly Holm. She even became a double champion by taking the UFC featherweight title from Cris Cyborg in 2018.

So can Julianna Pena really provide her with a true challenge? It’s honestly questionable.

‘The Venezuelan Vixen’ has done well in the UFC in her own right, putting together a record of 6-2 in between lengthy periods on the shelf due to both injuries and maternity.

Pena’s style is a simple one. She looks to drag her opponents to the ground, dominate them from the top and beat them up for either a TKO or submission.

A functional striker at best, Pena is excellent on the ground, but she’s also shown a strange penchant for being caught in submissions from the bottom, usually due to her own aggression.

Will that matter against Nunes? It feels unlikely, purely because ‘The Venezuelan Vixen’ may well be unable to take her down in the first place. The 'Lioness’ is remarkably strong for a 135lber and while she hasn’t fought too many wrestlers, she’s still a fantastic grappler who rarely ends up on the bottom.

Sure, the fact that the only woman to beat her in the UFC, Cat Zingano, did so by punishing her from the mount will probably give Pena some hope, but it’s also worth remembering that Nunes blew up in that fight in her attempt to finish Zingano early. Since then she’s more than polished her skills up and she’s also gone five rounds with no real issues on multiple occasions since.

Overall, this one looks like business as usual for Nunes. It’s likely she’ll keep this one on the feet and put Pena to sleep at some point in the early rounds.

The Pick: Nunes via second-round KO

#3. UFC 269: The Main Card

Rising bantamweight star Sean O'Malley features on this weekend's main card

In a UFC welterweight bout, Geoff Neal faces Santiago Ponzinibbio. This fight should be a strong battle of strikers, with Neal’s explosive style going up against Ponzinibbio’s more pressure-based boxing game.

This one is hard to pick, purely because Neal has the capability to take out any fighter with one shot. However, the durability and cardio of Ponzinibbio could give him the advantage. If he can avoid getting hit big in the early going, he should have enough to outwork ‘Handz of Steel’ for a decision.

In a flyweight bout, Kai Kara-France welcomes Cody Garbrandt into his new division. This one all hinges on how well Garbrandt settles down at 125 pounds. If he makes the weight without any issues then he ought to win this one. He’s got good enough wrestling to stop Kara-France’s takedowns and hits very hard.

If he’s totally depleted, though, who knows? Kara-France could take him down and outwork him. However, the New Zealand-based fighter hasn’t quite proven himself as an elite-level combatant and so the pick is Garbrandt via KO.

Finally, Raulian Paiva takes on Sean O’Malley in a bantamweight bout. There will be a lot of interest in this one due to O’Malley’s presence, but can he beat Paiva? It’s a tricky fight for him given the Brazilian’s all-round skills, but it is worth remembering that he’s been stopped before and doesn’t appear to be quite as fast as O’Malley. Therefore, the pick is ‘Sugar' via KO.

#4. UFC 269: The Prelims

Picks in bold

Featherweight division: Josh Emmett vs. Dan Ige

Bantamweight division: Dominick Cruz vs. Pedro Munhoz

Heavyweight division: Augusto Sakai vs. Tai Tuivasa

Middleweight division: Jordan Wright vs. Bruno Silva

Middleweight division: Andre Muniz vs. Eryk Anders

Women's flyweight division: Erin Blanchfield vs. Miranda Maverick

Flyweight division: Alex Perez vs. Matt Schnell

Featherweight division: Ryan Hall vs. Darrick Minner

Bantamweight division: Randy Costa vs. Tony Kelley

Women's flyweight division: Gillian Robertson vs. Priscila Cachoeira