UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Max Holloway vs. Yair Rodriguez

After two blockbuster shows, the UFC is back in Las Vegas this weekend for UFC Fight Night: Max Holloway vs. Yair Rodriguez.

Understandably, this UFC Fight Night is nowhere near as star-studded as the last two events produced by the promotion, but it should still have enough to make it watchable.

With that in mind, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Max Holloway vs. Yair Rodriguez.

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#1: UFC featherweight division: Max Holloway vs. Yair Rodriguez

Max Holloway will be gunning for another shot at the UFC featherweight title if he wins this weekend

While this fight doesn’t pique the interest like the big UFC title fights on last weekend’s event, it could still produce an instant classic and may well end up being one of 2021’s better clashes.

It could also produce the next top contender for the UFC featherweight title, although admittedly, it may be tricky to justify a title shot for Holloway given Alexander Volkanovski still holds the belt.

However, if ‘Blessed’ performs to the same level as he did in his victory over Calvin Kattar in January, it may be hard to deny him.

Rodriguez is a tricky fighter to really get a handle on at this point. Ranked at #3 in the UFC featherweight division, ‘El Pantera’ is clearly talented, but quite how that ranking is justified is a question mark right now.

Sure, he has a win over the #4 ranked Chan Sung Jung, but that win is his only truly relevant one in recent years, and more to the point, he hasn’t fought for a solid two years now.

The last time we saw him in the octagon, he defeated Jeremy Stephens in a largely impressive performance, but that was October 2019.

Since then, he’s been on the shelf with numerous injuries, and even suffered a six-month USADA suspension for failing to disclose his whereabouts, even if there was no indication of him using PEDs.

So how do these two match up? Theoretically at least, it’s a fight between a master technician in Holloway and a genuine wildman in Rodriguez, although we have seen glimpses of the opposite from both fighters in the past.

Based on what we’ve seen recently though, it’s probably fair to favor Holloway pretty heavily. The Hawaiian is not only one of the best technical boxers in the UFC (the best, according to Holloway himself) but he also chains combinations together like no other, never slows down, and produces volume striking largely unheard of in the UFC.

Rodriguez meanwhile – even ignoring his two years on the shelf – gassed out pretty badly in that win over Stephens, and hasn’t really shown the best cardio in the past, even if he’s capable of Hail Mary finishes, as we saw against 'The Korean Zombie'.

More pointedly, Rodriguez also struggled with the jab of Jung in that fight, and ‘Blessed’ is more than capable of keeping him at the end of a similar strike.

Add in the fact that Holloway has a genuinely iron chin, and it’ll probably take something completely spectacular to stop him. Overall, expect the Hawaiian’s volume to overwhelm ‘El Pantera’, leading to a mid-fight stoppage.

The Pick: Holloway via third round TKO

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#2: UFC heavyweight division: Ben Rothwell vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Ben Rothwell has now been in the UFC for well over a decade

To say this heavyweight fight isn’t likely to produce a technical classic would be a massive understatement. However, if both men fight to their ability, we could at least be treated to a watchable slugfest at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Incredibly, Ben Rothwell has now been in the UFC for a total of 12 years, and while he’s nowhere near title contention any more, he’s still one of the trickier outs for most opponents in the division.

‘Big Ben’ is one of the larger heavyweights in the UFC, standing at 6’4” and weighing 265lbs, but he’s surprisingly technical for his size and is more than capable of snatching submissions up, as we saw in his most recent win over Chris Barnett.

However, while he’s not a slow fighter per say, he’s very plodding – particularly at this point in his career – which has meant that fleet-footed strikers have given him plenty of problems.

Thankfully for him, it’d probably be hard to outclass Rogerio de Lima as a fleet-footed striker. ‘Pezao’ loves to exchange bombs with his opponents, but he’s not exactly a stick-and-move fighter. Instead, he’ll throw haymakers before bulling into the clinch to attempt to dish out more damage.

In an alternative universe – one in which Rogerio de Lima stuck around at 205lbs and worked on tuning up his ground game – he could well have developed into a UFC light heavyweight title contender a la Thiago Santos.

However, choosing to stick around and face bigger men in the heavyweight division – while also possessing a questionable ground game – has meant that his UFC record stands at a disappointing 7-5.

How this one goes probably depends on Rothwell. If he decides to wing bombs at Rogerio de Lima then there’s a chance someone will get knocked out. That’s more likely to be the Brazilian, but there is a possibility that he lands first to hurt Rothwell and can outpoint him from there.

If Rothwell looks to clinch, though, and overpowers 'Pezao' to take him down, then there’s every chance he’ll latch onto a choke and take him out. Based on the Brazilian’s usual form, that seems like the most likely outcome.

The Pick: Rothwell via first round submission

#3: UFC Fight Night: The Main Card

Former UFC title challenger Felicia Spencer features on this weekend's main card

In a somewhat-rare women's featherweight bout, former UFC title challenger Felicia Spencer takes on Leah Letson. Spencer’s clinch and ground game got her into some big fights, notably opposite Cris Cyborg and Amanda Nunes, but her most recent clash with Norma Dumont was lacklustre to say the least.

Letson on the other hand is on a five-fight win streak, but hasn’t got anywhere close to the experience of Spencer in the UFC, and also hasn’t fought in almost three years. That kind of layoff is hugely concerning, particularly as Letson wasn’t really a proven talent prior to it, meaning that the pick is Spencer via decision.

In the middleweight division, Kyle Daukaus faces Roman Dolidze. This fight has been thrown together by the UFC after both men saw their respective opponents withdraw from the card.

Daukaus is a solid, well-rounded fighter with skills in all areas, but while he’s looked good in the UFC in flashes, he seems to lack the athleticism to make it to the top.

Dolidze on the other hand has come down to 185lbs from 205lbs and looks like a pretty solid prospect with dangerous skills in all areas. This should be a close one to call, but if Daukaus can withstand a likely early storm, he should be able to outwork Dolidze for a decision.

Finally, Song Yadong battles Julio Arce in a bantamweight bout. Both of these men were once amongst the division’s better prospects, and will be hoping to get back on track with a win here.

Interestingly, despite both men having excellent grappling skills, it seems likely that these two will go to war on the feet. If that’s the case, then Arce may well have a slight edge due to a sizeable reach advantage.

Expect a ‘Fight of the Night’ contender here, but one that ends with Arce edging out a very tight decision to break into the UFC's bantamweight rankings.

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#4: UFC Fight Night: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC lightweight division: Thiago Moises vs. Joel Alvarez

UFC flyweight division: Cynthia Calvillo vs. Andrea Lee

UFC welterweight division: Miguel Baeza vs. Khaos Williams

UFC featherweight division: Sean Woodson vs. Collin Anglin

UFC flyweight division: Cortney Casey vs. Liana Jojua

UFC lightweight division: Mark Diakiese vs. Rafael Alves

UFC light-heavyweight division: Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Da Un Jung

UFC light-heavyweight division: Danilo Marques vs. Jailton Almeida