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On paper, the matchup between Kamaru Usman and Conor McGregor seems to have a guaranteed outcome: a Kamaru Usman victory. While this is a likely outcome, it might not be as guaranteed a result as most assume.
The longstanding narrative of McGregor's deficiencies as a fighter revolves around his struggles against strong wrestlers. In particular, much has been made of his failure to become the first fighter to defeat Khabib Nurmagomedov. The difference, however, is that Khabib was not simply a wrestler; he was a dangerous submission threat from the top position.
Furthermore, while Usman has undergone drastic improvements as a striker, his gaping holes remain unaddressed. His specific approach to wrestling might also be ill-suited to someone with McGregor's skill-set. Conversely, McGregor's abilities as a striker are well-suited to Usman's jab-heavy striking style and lack of defensive striking.
Usman is currently scheduled for a bout with Leon Edwards at UFC 278. This list explores five reasons why Conor McGregor might be a tougher matchup than most expect if the two lock horns.
#5. Usman's wrestling style
Conor McGregor's takedown defense is much better than it is often given credit for. Waiting for him to square his hips as he commits to a punch, then ducking under said punch for a blast double-leg takedown has not been a reliable method of getting him to the ground since his bout with Chad Mendes years ago.
In the Irishman's historic bout with Khabib Nurmagomedov, he defended the initial string of takedowns well. Nurmagomedov dove for a low single-leg takedown, and McGregor exploded his hips back, overhooking Khabib's neck, dropping his upper-body weight on top of it, and snapping him down.
His initial line of defense worked, even allowing him to overhook Khabib's back to control his foe's upper body, forcing him to try turning in at an angle to finish the takedown. McGregor even defended that, pushing off of his rear leg. Khabib eventually secured a takedown, but his chain wrestling was crucial to his success. While Usman is also a chain wrestler, much of his work comes from body locks. Unfortunately, because clinching with McGregor requires safely closing the distance against him without being countered, Usman is more limited than he otherwise would be.
Due to the poor state of his knees, Usman does not attempt blast double-leg takedowns. He will have to close the distance against McGregor to get on the inside for a body lock, which will be difficult to do against a powerful counter-puncher.
#4. Conor McGregor counters straight punches
Trevor Wittman has worked wonders with Usman's striking. While no one will ever confuse Usman for a highly skilled kickboxer, he's tightened up his overall striking game by focusing on fundamentals like the jab and cross. Usman does not throw ordinary jabs, however. He commits to his jab, stepping in with it and extending his shoulder, putting all of his weight behind it. He throws his follow-up right cross with just as much follow-through.
Due to his insistence on throwing every jab and cross with stinging power, he also puts himself in a position to be countered. Conor McGregor has made a career out of drawing out his opponents' jabs and crosses, slipping them, and countering his foes with a straight left. Thus, Usman's striking is likely to fare poorly against McGregor's, as the Irishman will eagerly counter every power jab and cross the reigning welterweight champion throws.
#3. Conor McGregor's reach, albeit shorter, will give Usman problems
With a reach of 76 inches, Usman possesses very long arms for a welterweight. He uses this to great effect when jabbing his opponents and punishing them further with his follow-up right cross. However, Usman benefits from his long reach, enabling him to land on opponents at a range they can't consistently counter him from. Furthermore, by forcing his opponents to overextend by even a half-inch to land their punches, he strips some of the power from their strikes.
Conor McGregor possesses a reach that is only two inches shorter than Usman's, and the Irishman is a far better distance manager. He stands just outside his opponent's reach, throwing non-commital jabs designed to fall a half-inch or so short of landing to trick his opponent into assuming he is too far away to hit them. McGregor then leans his upper body forward, with his shoulders ahead of his hips, extending his reach and shocking opponents as he lands his punches.
Leon Edwards, who was far superior in the striking department when they first fought, is the only other fighter Usman has faced with a skilled distance management skill-set. If Usman believes his foes are far enough away that their punches don't land, Conor McGregor's strategy of tricking opponents will allow him to counter Usman more effectively.
#2. Usman's chin may not be the best
Kamaru Usman is as driven and willful as a fighter can be. Despite his heart and well-rounded skill-set, he is not exceptionally tough or durable. It could be due to his poor defensive striking as he does not move his head off the center-line when throwing punches, rendering him even more susceptible to McGregor's counters. Alternatively, he could have a less-than-stellar chin. Either way, Usman gets stunned in fights more often than a fighter of his dominance should.
Against Gilbert Burns, he was dropped by a counter-right hand as he threw a jab without moving his head off the center line. Unlike McGregor, Burns is a lesser striker with a shorter reach who is not nearly as skilled at slipping and countering jabs and straights. Even Colby Covington, who is defensively irresponsible with his striking and throws with very little power, was able to stun Usman several times.
While McGregor might not have as much pure punching power as Burns does at welterweight, he is a superior counter-puncher with better distance management and timing and hits harder than Covington. Usman's chin might struggle against Conor McGregor if he is consistently countered.
#1. Kamaru Usman is not a submission threat
Conor McGregor and Kamaru Usman have the same number of submission wins on their respective records. When opponents talk of wrestling McGregor to the mat, it's often with the intention of forcing him to tap out to a submission. However, whenever Usman gets his foes to the ground, he rarely relies on Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Instead, he outwrestles his opponents by pinning their wrists and maintaining a low posture to keep his foes under him.
He also does not make many attempts to pass an opponent's guard. While being under Usman is never ideal, Conor McGregor often looks to overhook his opponent's arms and even secure wrist-grips to neutralize their ground and pound. Usman's ground and pound tend to come in short elbows, but he will also posture up to create enough space to land harder blows. McGregor specializes in timing these moments by waiting for his opponent to create space for ground and pound, enabling him to quickly place his feet on their hips and push them away with his legs to scramble back to his feet.
Since Usman offers neither a submission threat nor triangles his opponent's legs with his own, as Khabib does, McGregor will be afforded more opportunities to stand without exposing himself to significant risk.
