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NASCAR at Dover: Vegas odds, key stats, prediction, sleepers, fantasy drivers for playoff race

Omnisport
NEWS
33   //    28 Sep 2017, 21:30 IST
Jimmie Johnson, Martin Truex Jr.
Jimmie Johnson, Martin Truex Jr.

There is no other track in NASCAR quite like Dover International Speedway. The one-mile concrete track in Delaware has high banks and multiple grooves similar to Bristol's half-mile layout but with high-banked straightaways. 

Considering no non-playoff driver has ever won a postseason race at Dover, our pick to win Sunday (2 p.m. ET, NBCSN) is Kyle Busch. The hottest driver over the past six races is finally hitting his mark after a slow start to the season. Busch has two wins, a 6.33 average finish and series-best 120.8 driver rating since Watkins Glen and heads to Dover where he owns a 5.4 average finish over his past seven playoff races. 

If Jimmie Johnson wins Sunday, then he will join NASCAR Hall of Famers Richard Petty and Darrell Waltrip as the only three Cup Series drivers to win 12 or more races at a single track. 

In 31 starts at Dover, Johnson boasts 11 wins, 16 top fives, 22 top 10s and a 9.3 average finish. His 7.7 average running position and 118.3 driver rating rank at the top of the Monster Mile statistical lists among active drivers.

Johnson has struggled this season since winning at Dover in June, recording zero top-five finishes and just four top 10s. He's also a seven-time NASCAR champion and can never be counted out as the odds show. 

What are the Las Vegas odds for the NASCAR race at Dover?

Here are the race odds according to Westgate Sportsbook:

Martin Truex Jr. 9/4
Kyle Busch 13/4
Kyle Larson 13/4
Jimmie Johnson 6/1
Matt Kenseth 15/1
Denny Hamlin 15/1
Kevin Harvick 15/1
Chase Elliott 20/1
Erik Jones 20/1
Brad Keselowski 20/1
Ryan Blaney 40/1
Joey Logano 40/1
Kurt Busch 40/1
Clint Bowyer 40/1
Jamie McMurray 100/1
Daniel Suarez 100/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100/1
Ryan Newman 300/1
Kasey Kahne 300/1
Austin Dillon 300/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 300/1
Trevor Bayne 300/1
AJ Allmendinger 300/1
Ty Dillon 500/1
Paul Menard 500/1
Chris Buescher 1000/1
Aric Almirola 1000/1
Danica Patrick 1000/1
Michael McDowell 2000/1
Field (all others) 1000/1

Who are the sleepers to win the NASCAR race at Dover?

Ryan Newman needs a solid finish to move on in the playoffs. The No. 31 driver won at a flatter one-mile track (Phoenix) this year and has the 10th-best fastest laps run at Dover among active drivers. In 31 starts at Dover, he also owns seven top fives, 14 top 10s and a 13.6 average finish. He placed fourth at the Monster Mile in June.

Clint Bowyer finished second at Bristol earlier this season and was 12th at the AAA 400 Drive for Autism a year ago with the underfunded HScott Motorsports. Bowyer got into trouble at Dover in June but still owns a 13.2 career average finish at the Monster Mile, his second-best track. 

Which drivers are best for fantasy NASCAR in Dover?

Matt Kenseth should be considered a top option on Sunday. He is a three-time winner at Dover and has finished seventh or better in six of his last eight starts. Kenseth also finished fourth earlier this season at Bristol. 

Paul Menard scored 39 DraftKings fantasy points at Bristol earlier this season and at $6,500 on DraftKings has plenty of upside at Dover, where he's finished eighth and 11th at the past two spring races before crashing in the June race this season. 

Michael McDowell ($5,700) is racing for a new team next season after it was announced Kasey Kahne would take his spot in 2018. McDowell responded to the news with a solid 23rd place at New Hampshire. He was 19th at Dover in June and is a great punt option for the price. 

Omnisport
NEWS
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