NASCAR at Texas: Odds, key stats, prediction, sleepers, fantasy drivers to draft
Betting favorites and fantasy sleepers for Sunday's AAA Texas 500 at the 1.5-mile Fort Worth track.
NASCAR heads to Texas Motor Speedway Sunday for the second race in the Round of 8 in the playoffs with just two events left until the title run at Homestead.
The 334-lap race will mark the second time Cup cars have raced on the 1.5-mile track since it underwent its second re-pave. The track also added a drainage system on the frontstretch and backstretch and re-profiled Turns 1 and 2 (banking reduced from 24 to 20 degrees, racing surface expanded from 60 to 80 feet wide).
Jimmie Johnson won at Texas earlier this spring, with Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick and Dale Earnhardt Jr. rounding out the top five.
Kyle Busch is locked in the championship race but that doesn't mean he's taking it easy at Texas. Another win in the Round of 8 would take away another automatic transfer spot to the title race, making next weekend's Round of 8 finale at Phoenix all the more chaotic.
What are the Las Vegas odds for the NASCAR race at Texas?
Here are the race odds according to Westgate Sportsbook:
Kyle Busch 4/1
Kevin Harvick 6/1
Kyle Larson 6/1
Chase Elliott 7/1
Brad Keselowski 10/1
Denny Hamlin 15/1
Jimmie Johnson 15/1
Matt Kenseth 20/1
Ryan Blaney 18/1
Erik Jones 30/1
Clint Bowyer 40/1
Kurt Busch 60/1
Daniel Suarez 80/1
Jamie McMurray 100/1
Joey Logano 80/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 100/1
Kasey Kahne 200/1
Austin Dillon 300/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 300/1
Paul Menard 300/1
Ryan Newman 300/1
Trevor Bayne 500/1
Ty Dillon 500/1
Chris Buescher 500/1
AJ Allendinger 1000/1
Aric Almirola 1000/1
Danica Patrick 1000/1
Michael McDowell 5000/1
Field (all others) 1000/1
Who is going to win Sunday's NASCAR race at Texas?
Looking for our fifth correct pick over the last six races, we are trusting in Martin Truex Jr. to continue our hot streak Sunday. Noticeably missing from the top five earlier this season at Texas was Truex. While his eighth-place finish was still solid, it was below average for his incredible performances at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
Truex has an incredible 2.8 average finish at 1.5-mile tracks this season with six wins. He's led 947 laps and has finished in the top 10 at each of the 10 races at tracks of that size, including four wins in the past five.
Which drivers should I pick for fantasy NASCAR at Texas?
You know who else has a 2.8 average finish at 1.5-mile tracks? Chase Elliott, over the last four races. Elliott is currently sitting in last in the playoff standings after getting dumped by Denny Hamlin with just under three laps to go at Martinsville. Elliott could be out for revenge, making him a risky play but a win automatically puts him in the championship race.
Jimmie Johnson holds the all-time track records for wins (seven), top fives (15) and top 10s (21) at Texas. Among active drivers, Johnson boasts the top driver rating (107.3), the second-best average finish (8.2) and the third-best average running position (10.3).
Ryan Blaney has been the fourth-best driver over the last six races, according to average finish. He led a race-high 148 laps in the spring race at Texas and finished third at another 1.5-mile track two weeks ago at Kansas. Still in the playoff hunt, Blaney needs a strong finish to move up in the standings.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($7,900 on DraftKings) has been solid at Texas despite an historically bad record at 1.5-mile tracks.
Michael McDowell has been a staple driver for us to use on DraftKings ($5,700) in order to save salary. Trevor Bayne ($7,200) has had a positive place-differential over the last three 1.5-mile tracks, and he finished 13th in the Texas spring race.